It was a remarkable second quarter with global markets staging the sort of comeback few would have thought plausible, at the end of March. With some countries still battling the first wave of infection and others seemingly headed to a second, not to mention what happens when governments start to remove direct stimulus measures, uncertainty still abounds.
Companies: NCYF EGL NAIT NAIT THRG GCP IGC HHI JLEN PCT VNH ASLI IBT HRI CSH SIGT
India Capital Growth’s (IGC’s) board is asking investors to back a continuation vote scheduled for 12 June 2020 and it is important that shareholders make their vote count. COVID-19 has depressed valuations to levels not seen since the financial crisis. The managers see substantial upside when market confidence returns and are asking for more time to deliver that. The board believes shareholders should support continuation. This reflects their confidence in the measures taken to turn performance around. Combined with potential mean reversion in small and mid-cap valuations, IGC’s share price could improve meaningfully.
Companies: India Capital Growth Fund
India Capital Growth’s (IGC’s) board is asking investors to back a continuation vote scheduled for 12 June 2020 and it is important that shareholders make their vote count. COVID-19 has depressed valuations to levels not seen since the financial crisis. The managers see substantial upside when market confidence returns and are asking for more time to deliver that. The board believes shareholders should support the continuation of the company. This reflects their confidence in the measures taken to turn performance around, which we discuss in this note. When small and midcap valuations return to trading at long-term average valuations, IGC’s share price could improve meaningfully.
There was palpable shift in sentiment over the third quarter with the cautionary undertone perhaps best reflected by gold’s resurgence. Ongoing trade jockeying between the US and China did not help the mood and neither did the Argentine debt default in August. At the real economy level, manufacturing output has been trending lower across some of the major global economies.
Companies: AEMC BIOG SIGT IBT JEFI MHN MERI MTE PSHD RSE SIR FJV LTI MVI SEQI SOND SLI EGL SUPP VNH CSH VSL BRLA UTL ADAM SOHO GPM TPOU LEAF JRS JLEN SEC IGC MPO LIV INTU THRL
India Capital Growth (IGC)’s portfolio was trading at just 12x estimated earnings for the year ended 31 March 2021 at the end of August. The manager says that when it last hit that level, in August 2013, IGC delivered a 197% return in sterling over the following three years. Indian stocks have begun to rebound since the end of August but there could be much more to go for and there is scope for IGC’s discount to narrow further.
India Capital Growth (IGC)’s portfolio was trading at just 12x FY21 earnings at the end of August. The manager says that when it last hit that level, in August 2013, IGC delivered a 197% return in sterling over the following three years. Stocks have begun to rebound but there could be much more to go for and there is scope for IGC’s discount to narrow further.
The Indian stock market slid in September, extending its run of losses in 2018, and has seesawed since. Higher oil prices fed through into inflation concerns; rising interest rates; a fall in the exchange rate between the Indian rupee and other key currencies such as the US dollar; and what appears to have been, a liquidity squeeze (where some companies found it hard to borrow money).
The Indian market slid in September, extending its run of losses in 2018, and has seesawed since. The main culprit was the oil price, which feeds through into inflation concerns, rising interest rates, a falling rupee and what appears to have been, a liquidity squeeze. A sharp fall in the oil price since mid-October may now be heralding a recovery in Indian equities. Against that backdrop, India Capital Growth (IGC)’s manager and adviser (David Cornell and Gaurav Narain, respectively) see real value emerging in the portfolio.
Earnings figures for the companies in India Capital Growth (IGC)’s portfolio are on an upward trajectory as India puts the disruptive effects of demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) behind it. Rising oil prices may be a headwind but India’s domestically focused economy should be relatively sheltered from a global trade war. Gaurav Narain, investment adviser to IGC, thinks we could see companies in his portfolio reporting average earnings growth of at least 20% per annum for the 2019 and 2020 fiscal years.
Earnings figures for the companies in India Capital Growth (IGC)’s portfolio are increasing as India puts the disruptive effects of demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) – both of which were covered in QuotedData’s March 2017 note – behind it. Rising oil prices may be a headwind but India’s domestically focused economy should be relatively sheltered from a global trade war. Gaurav Narain, investment adviser to IGC, thinks we could see the companies in IGC’s portfolio reporting average earnings growth of at least 20% a year for the periods ending March 2019 and March 2020.
Stock selection will play an increasingly important role in driving equity returns as ratesincrease in developed economies. The team managing the India Capital Growth Fund (IGC) believes that most companies in the fund’s portfolio are of higher quality than the benchmark index, while trading at similar valuations. The Indian economy is adjusting to two key policy events which slowed earnings growth in several companies over the last year. Earnings are now recovering from these shocks and the team expects companies in the IGC portfolio to realise total growth in EPS of c.58% over the next two financial years. We strongly believe that the long-term growth opportunities offered by India will be best captured by a fund like IGC. Given its historic performance relative to both the benchmark index and its peer group, we recommend that investors buy IGC for its exposure to Indian equity markets.
India Capital Growth (IGC) moved to the premium listing segment of the London Stock Exchange’s main market on 24 January 2018. The board considers that this market is more appropriate for IGC’s size and maturity, and provides a more fitting platform for its growth ambitions. It also believes that the move allows IGC to access an expanded investor audience, putting it on a par with its immediate peers, and that it will benefit from enhanced liquidity, and potentially an improved rating, building on last year’s narrowing discount.
India Capital Growth (IGC) moved to the premium listing segment of the London Stock Exchange’s main market on 24 January 2018. The board considers that this market is more appropriate for a fund of IGC’s size and maturity, and provides a more suitable platform for its growth ambitions. It also believes that the move allows IGC to access an expanded investor audience, putting it on a par with its immediate peers, and that it will benefit from better liquidity in its shares, and potentially an improved rating, building on last year’s narrowing discount (see pages 2 and 3).
We spent four days during the middle of March accompanying Ocean Dial, the managers of India Capital Growth Fund on an investor trip to India. The meetings included a broad mix of companies, members of the broking community, the media as well as government officials. While the issue of nonperforming loans within the banking sector is expected to restrain growth from re-accelerating significantly from c.7% figure it stands at, in the short-term the policies being implemented by the BJP government lay the foundation for an acceleration in growth in the future. We continue to recommend that investors buy India Capital Growth Fund (IGC) to capture India’s accelerating growth.
With last year’s successful subscription share exercise pushing India Capital Growth (IGC)’s net assets through the £100m mark; strong performance relative to peers; and buoyant conditions in India, the focus now is on driving down IGC’s discount. Recent poll success by the BJP has put a stamp of approval on the party’s ambitious reform agenda. We may see a temporary dip in growth as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is introduced this summer, but this should have long-term positive effects. The discount appears perverse to us. India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world and IGC is positioned to take advantage of this.
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Since the restrictions were lifted in mid-May, Belvoir has seen a surge in activity due to pent-up demand, resulting in June being a record breaking month for the group’s Newton Fallowell estate agency network in terms of instructions and sales and the financial Services division in terms of written income. Management have stated that with the positive impact of the stamp duty reductions still to take effect they are confident that the Group is well positioned to capitalise on the current market upturn and to take advantage of the opportunities arising from more challenging conditions. We have upgraded our PBT forecasts for FY 2020 to the level we forecast pre-COVID. We have also upgraded our target price from 169p to 233p and highlight that H1 2020 has demonstrated the resilience of the group, management’s ability to navigate difficult market conditions and the power of the franchise-led strategy.
Companies: Belvoir Group Plc
What’s new: Purplebricks Group results for the year to 30 April 2020, show the Australian and US units as discontinued; but include the Canadian unit sold for C$60.5m (i.e. £35m) in July. Investors will focus on the UK unit which revealed:
11% fall in UK revenue to £80.5m (FY19: £90.1m), as the number of instructions fell 23% (impacted by early Covid uncertainty and lockdown), but the average revenue per instruction “ARPI” rose 12% to £1,394;
UK gross profit margin improved to 64.1% (FY19: 63.0%);
UK marketing costs to revenue improved to 25.6% (FY19: 29.6%);
Spend on Digital capacity pushed UK operating costs 32% to £26.2m (FY19: £19.9m), as new management team pursued initiatives which are being “delivered at pace with significant opportunity for further innovation.”
UK adjusted EBITDA fell 53% to £4.8m (FY19: £10.2m).
Companies: Purplebricks Group Plc
As expected, the quarter saw a sharp increase in loan impairments. However, one can wonder if the increase was not capped by the group’s willingness to keep its results afloat. Management’s downbeat guidance in terms of revenue recovery potential and cost reduction does not bode well as regards the group’s future credit loss absorption capacity.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group
For this Monthly, we are delighted that Rooney Nimmo and 24Haymarket have allowed us to reproduce a recent report they jointly published, entitled An analysis of UK exits (2015-2019), which provides a granular analysis by sector of the activity in our dynamic private companies world. We hope you find the insights of interest.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX CLIG ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA
The group continued to opportunistically take advantage of its CIB division’s performance to front-load pending credit losses. The third quarter should mark the beginning of a normalisation in the revenue mix and the cost of risk assuming no change in the macro-economic scenario retained by the group.
S4 Capital has announced the merger of Orca Pacific with Mighty Hive. Orca Pacific is a full-service Amazon agency and boutique consultancy based out of Seattle, which builds on the existing Amazon relationship of the group. The combination with Mighty Hive creates an end to end eCommerce offering encompassing retail management, advertising and content on the Amazon platform. Orca has a blue chip client list including Reebok, Uni-Ball, Mars, OshKosh BGosh, Godiva, Del Monte and Kenroy Home. We view Orca Pacific as an ideal merger partner with MightyHive, while we also see potential to align with the creative capabilities of MediaMonks. No financial details were disclosed, though we believe the transaction would have been structured consistent with the 50/50 cash/equity structure used by S4 Capital. The group recently raised £116m to fund the cash element of its M&A strategy. S4 Capital will release interims on 9th September followed by a Capital Markets Day. We await the outcome of two pitches for Whopper accounts before updating our forecasts. We retain our Buy rating and 375p price target.
Companies: S4 Capital
The Bankers Investment Trust (BNKR) has continued to deliver on its twin objectives of long-term capital and income growth, rebounding strongly from the global market declines of Q120 and declaring increased dividends for H120 despite the difficult backdrop for corporate earnings. Coming into 2020, manager Alex Crooke had positioned the trust relatively cautiously with a net cash position of c 3%, which he put to work during the sell-off, boosting the portfolio’s long-term total return potential. At the half year the board reiterated its intention to increase BNKR’s FY20 total dividend by c 3%, using reserves as necessary, which would secure a record-equalling 54th consecutive year of dividend growth for the trust’s shareholders.
Companies: Bankers Investment Trust
Today's update highlights that despite the Covid-19 outbreak and UK/IRE lockdown, which has affected trading, Duke has continued to collect cash royalties from most of its royalty partners. Short-term alternative payment terms have been agreed with those partners hardest hit, to support them to periods where royalties can be fully recouped. Therefore the 61% fall in p/b from 1.3 (at 20 Feb) to 0.5 today, appears overdone.
Companies: Duke Royalty
Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) recently announced interim results for the period to June 30, 2020. The company reported net rental income of £64.8mln, up 20.4% versus H1 2019. Net profit was up 29.0% at £36.0mln (European Public Real-estate Association earnings measure). Dividend per share for
Companies: Primary Health Properties
Worldwide Healthcare Trust (WWH) is celebrating its 25th anniversary. Managed by Sven Borho and Trevor Polischuk at OrbiMed, the trust has an enviable absolute and relative performance track record. The managers remain very constructive on the prospects for the global healthcare sector, suggesting that while President Trump has once again focused on the issue of US drug pricing, his ‘bark is worse than his bite’, and his efforts are a negotiating ploy to get the healthcare industry to the table to discuss reforms. They highlight minimal disruptions at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a result of the coronavirus, and expect an uptick in industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in H220 and beyond.
Companies: Worldwide Healthcare Trust
The group’s earnings surprise was driven by goodwill impairments. On the negative side, management upgraded, albeit slightly, its full-year loan impairments guidance and warns about revenue and CET1 pressure. It also reckoned that the tensions between the US and China will impact the group.
Companies: HSBC Holdings Plc
Despite challenging market conditions, Picton’s Q121 DPS was well-covered by EPRA earnings and robust portfolio capital values. Combined with low gearing, NAV per share was just 1.3% lower versus Q420 and including DPS paid, the NAV total return was -0.6%. With encouraging rent collection data continuing and the lockdown easing, we have reinstated our estimates and look for the quarterly DPS run-rate to increase in H221.
Companies: Picton Property Income Ltd.
TPFG will report flat revenues for H1/20E, a commendable achievement given it includes two months of market inactivity from the UK's lockdown. This reflects a strong rebound in market activity, with YoY growth in June, which looks set to continue over Q3/20. While uncertainty persists regarding future levels of UK unemployment and its impact on tenants, current trading bodes well for a FY20E delivery in-line with recent years.
Companies: The Property Franchise Group Plc
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Avacta Group (AVCT), BCI Minerals (BCI), Destiny Pharma (DEST), Globalworth Real Estate Investments (GWI), Henderson Alternative Strategies Trust (HAST), Herantis Pharma (HRTIS), Jupiter Green Investment Trust (JGC) and Rockhopper Exploration (RKH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website
Companies: Henderson Alternative Strategis Trst
The quarter was marked by an aggressive front-loading of expected credit losses and showed reassuring resilience at the top-line level.
Companies: Royal Bank Of Scotland Group