Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust’s (TEMIT) two managers have more than 50 years’ combined investment experience. Chetan Sehgal is based in Singapore and Andrew Ness is based in Edinburgh; they are part of a more than 80-strong team of portfolio managers and analysts across 16 countries around the globe. The trust’s relative performance was negatively affected during the coronavirus-led market sell-off earlier in 2020 but has since bounced back strongly. TEMIT has outperformed its benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets index, over the last one, three, five and 10 years in both NAV and share price terms.
Companies: Templeton Emerging Markets Inv Trust
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) has two experienced managers – Chetan Sehgal (based in Singapore) and Andrew Ness (based in Edinburgh). In 2019, they delivered a very strong year of performance in both absolute and relative terms, and are continuing to find attractive investment opportunities across a range of sectors and geographies. The managers are able to draw on a large and well-resourced investment team that has been refreshed in recent years, seeking quality companies that can be held for the long term. Ness says that TEMIT offers a portfolio with superior growth prospects, that is trading broadly in line with its benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
Templeton Emerging Markets (TEM) invests in stockmarkets of emerging countries with a bottom-up driven, stock-specific approach. It has more of a value tilt than any of its peers in the AIC Global Emerging Markets sector, and the managers tend to take a five-year view on companies’ growth potential. The trust has outperformed a passive investment in the emerging markets over the past year, and over three- and five-year periods, thanks largely to the themes and stocks brought into the portfolio after a change of manager in 2015. We analyse the performance in detail in the Performance section below. Chetan Sehgal took over as manager in February 2018, having worked with the previous manager Carlos Hardenberg, who took over in October 2015. He was joined by Andrew Ness as co-manager in 2018. We think the changes in the management team may be one reason the trust trades on a wider discount than the sector average, despite the strong performance. The discount is currently 11.6%. Although the trust focuses on capital growth, recent policy changes have seen it become more income-friendly, and the payout has increased, as we discuss in the Dividend section.
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) is managed by Chetan Sehgal (based in Singapore) and Andrew Ness (based in Edinburgh). They draw on the broad resources of the Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity (FTEME) investment team, seeking quality companies trading at a discount to their intrinsic value that can be held for the long term. Despite increased stock market volatility in recent quarters, the managers have built on TEMIT’s solid long-term track record; it has outperformed its MSCI Emerging Markets index benchmark over the last one, three and 10 years, and is broadly in line over the last five years.
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) has recently appointed Andrew Ness as portfolio manager alongside Chetan Sehgal. Ness is based in Edinburgh, providing investors with a more accessible presence in the UK. The managers are constructive on the outlook for emerging markets in 2019, as they believe corporate earnings growth in the regions will surpass that in developed markets and emerging market equity valuations are attractive. TEMIT has outperformed its benchmark in NAV terms over one, three and 10 years, while its share price has also outperformed over five years. The trust now pays a semi-annual, rather than single year-end distribution, and currently yields 2.0% (based on the FY18 dividend).
Templeton Emerging Markets invests in emerging markets equities on a global basis, aiming to maximise total returns over the long run with a value-based, bottom up approach. The manager Chetan Sehgal, who took over in April, was previously deputy manager on the trust. He is a director of emerging markets equities and has had a strong input into all of Franklin Templeton’s emerging markets funds since 2016. As a consequence, there has been no change of approach under Chetan. Returns were strong relative to peers in 2016 and 2017 thanks to overweights to the consumer discretionary and technology sectors, although 2018 has been more difficult - as it has for active managers as a whole. The trust yields 2.2% following a significant rise in revenues per share thanks to a strong 2017 as well as policy changes designed to boost the dividend. The discount of 15% has remained stubbornly wide despite board attempts to close it, and it remains on a wider discount than its peer group average.
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) has been managed by Chetan Sehgal since the beginning of February 2018, when he took over from prior lead manager Carlos Hardenberg. The two managers had worked closely together for a number of years and there will be no change to the investment process. Sehgal will continue to follow Franklin Templeton’s value-based, bottom-up stock selection approach, aiming to generate long-term capital growth. The manager is optimistic on the outlook for emerging market equities, citing above-average earnings growth with below-average valuations versus global equities. TEMIT has recently announced its FY18 results (ending 31 March); its NAV and share price total returns of 12.4% and 13.7% respectively were ahead of the 11.8% total return of the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index.
After a difficult time in 2015, emerging markets have enjoyed some welcome respite over the past few years. Throughout 2016, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index delivered NAV returns of 32.6%, and 2017 saw similarly strong returns of 25.4%. Many of the factors that originally attracted investors to emerging markets seem to be coming back into play, including improving earnings growth, higher economic growth and robust consumer trends. As an additional tailwind, the weak dollar has helped the commodity exporting countries like Russia, Brazil and Chile continue to grow while at the same time encouraging investors to chase higher yielding EM countries.
Companies: Templeton Emerging Markets Inv Trust Blackrock Latin American Inv Tst
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) aims to generate long-term capital growth from a portfolio of emerging market equities that is diversified by geography and sector. Carlos Hardenberg took over as lead manager on 1 October 2015, since when there has been a noticeable improvement in performance. TEMIT has outperformed its MSCI Emerging Markets Index benchmark by c 11pp over the last 12 months and has the best performance versus its peers by a considerable margin. Due to its substantial revenue reserves, the trust was able to maintain its FY17 annual dividend at 8.25p per share and a change in expense allocation will boost revenue returns from FY18; its current yield is 1.1%.
Templeton Emerging Markets Inv. Trust (TEMIT) aims to generate long-term capital growth from a diversified portfolio of emerging market equities. Since the change in manager in October 2015, there has been a notable improvement in TEMIT’s relative performance – over the last 12 months, its NAV total return has outperformed its MSCI Emerging Markets index benchmark by 10.2%. TEMIT has historically run a small cash balance, but in January 2017 announced it had entered into a new £150m credit facility; if fully drawn down, it would take gross gearing to c 7.0% of net assets.
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) aims to achieve long-term capital gains through investing in companies operating in emerging markets. Even though these markets have shown modest signs of picking up recently, there has been pronounced relative weakness over five years leaving valuations at attractive levels compared with developed markets. The potential for volatility needs to be acknowledged, but this could represent an opportunity for investors with a long-term view. TEMIT itself has a relatively focused portfolio, is managed with a long-term, fundamental approach and has outperformed its benchmark over five and 10 years.
Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust (TEMIT) invests in emerging market-listed equities or in companies listed elsewhere where the majority of their revenues are derived from emerging markets. Since 1 October 2015, TEMIT has been managed by Carlos von Hardenberg, who has broadened the trust’s exposure; he aims to generate long-term capital growth by investing in a portfolio of c 90 companies diversified by sector and geography. The manager has a value bias and stocks are selected following thorough fundamental analysis. Although performance in 2015 was challenging, the trust has outperformed its benchmark over 10 years and 2016 performance to date has shown a marked improvement.
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Avation is a lessor of 46 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has released results for the 12-months to 30 June 2020, which illustrate the challenges faced by its customer base as a result of Covid-19, as well as the corrective actions taken by the Board that have resulted in profitability being maintained in the year as a whole. Loan repayment deferrals of c.$24.4m were obtained in the period, in comparison to $13.1m short-term rent deferrals being granted to airline customers and thus emphasising management's focus on liquidity during an unprecedented period for global airlines. Avation again reports that it is currently reviewing alternatives in relation to the 6.5% senior notes due in May 2021. Whilst at this point our forecasts remain under review, and near term challenges remain across the industry, we believe that demand for aircraft from lessors such as Avation will increase in time as a result of airlines being even more reliant upon aircraft leasing firms due to the retirement of older aircraft during 2020 in combination with much weaker balance sheets that are unable to support direct aircraft purchases.
Companies: Avation PLC
As expected following the US banks’ releases, Barclays’ third quarter results saw a sharp reduction in provisions build-up while the emergence of delinquencies has been delayed by the State’s supporting measures. Management continues to expect a reduction in the cost of risk next year. It remains to be seen if this guidance is capable of withstanding new lockdowns or a no-deal Brexit.
Companies: Barclays PLC
In another upbeat update, GHT has confirmed that the business is tracking in line, in turn being driven by strong traction with key customer, ANZ. Here, new sales have driven a 20% increase in contracted customer revenue to >£11m in FY21. As a strategic partner (deeply involved with GHT in bringing new Clareti banking services to market) this extra investment is very encouraging, as it’s indicative of these services‘ strong future potential. Also announced today – GHT state that its transition to a recurring subscription model (commenced just two years ago) is now complete and that ARR now stands at £11.9m, ~+16% annualised organic growth since FY20 y/e. In a tough new business environment, we view this as a highly credible performance. It’s also worth noting that management reference remaining pipeline opportunities, these would further benefit strong forwards visibility – already £22.4m for FY21. Given this – and also as sign of confidence – today we reinstate FY21 forecasts. We look for a reacceleration in top-line growth: +16% y/y to £28.7m at a Group level, in turn driven by c.+24% organic growth in Clareti, to £20m. For valuation – with Clareti still in its relative infancy – we continue to view a sales multiple as most appropriate. Here, we note that peers typically trade in a 5-7x range vs. GHT at 4x our FY21 estimate. This suggests 25-75% upside to fair value for this disruptive company, with a multi-year growth opportunity still ahead.
Companies: Gresham House
Record’s Q221 trading update confirmed that its new $8bn dynamic hedging mandate has started and that, prior to this, assets under management equivalent (AUME) expanded by 4% in the quarter. The group continues to work on developing new products and is deploying technology to enhance its ability to deliver these and existing products cost effectively.
Companies: Record plc
The interims confirmed that Covid-19 was minimally disruptive operationally in H1 20 and, ironically, may have improved both of R&Q’s divisions’ mediumterm trading outlooks. As the pandemic and other industry events have generated significant losses for insurers, they have created the current ‘hardening’ market driving demand for Legacy and Program Management.
Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.
Agronomics has announced it has conditionally raised £10.0m gross from an equity issue at a price of 6.0p, which represents a 6.8% premium to the most recently reported NAV per share of 5.62p. Assuming the company's post-raise cash balance is £8.15m, after repaying a £1.9m bridging facility, we estimate the new NAV per share to be c5.7p. We see significant potential in the cultivated meat sector and believe Agronomics is well positioned to support this developing sector and generate strong returns from these investments. We see upside in Agronomics' portfolio and have today initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Companies: Agronomics Limited
Following on quickly from its impressive full year results, these interim results confirm that our confidence for growth in the Program Management business was not misplaced.Contracted Premium increased 95% YoY (and 12% ahead of December 2019) to $925m –a stone's throw away from the $1bn 2020 guidance set in 2018. At the same time, Gross Written Premium (GWP) grew 42.6% to £247.2m, resulting in Economic EBITDA turning positive, at £0.8m compared to a loss of £0.3m in 1H19
Agronomics is an investment company building a portfolio of investments in the developing alternative protein sector. The company is focused on early stage investments, offering attractive valuations and significant upside potential. Importantly, we believe Agronomics represents an opportunity for public investors to gain access to early stage private companies, which might not otherwise be available. We expect the cultivated meat sector to be driven by a number of global mega trends that will increase public awareness of the issues the sector is aiming to overcome. We see strong upside in Agronomics' existing portfolio and initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) Q3 trading update disclosed that Q3 was stronger than expected and FY20 earnings are likely to be well ahead of consensus forecasts. Loan repayment holidays in its Motor Finance and Retail Finance divisions were down remarkably and credit quality is not deteriorating. Loan demand is strengthening after the lockdown. Capital and liquidity remain good. The bank remains cautious due to continued COVID-19 and Brexit uncertainty and is still not providing formal guidance. We are upping our earnings forecasts and fair value from 1,704p to 1,756p. In our view, the valuation remains depressed compared to fundamentals with banking stocks still out of favour. STB trades on an FY20 P/BV of 0.53x, yet it has a strong track record of value creating returns (ROE above COE), a good capital base and liquidity. The Q3 good news reinforces our view that we are unlikely to see book value deterioration during this downturn to justify any NAV discount.
Companies: Secure Trust Bank Plc
Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
There was an eclectic mix of property companies to feature in the top price movers for September. Top of the tree was private rented sector and residential development specialist Sigma Capital Group, with a 34.2% rise. The group launched a £1bn joint venture with EQT Real Estate, the real estate platform of global investment firm EQT, to deliver 3,000 private rental homes in Greater London. Micro-cap investor Panther Securities also hit double-digit gains, while Macau Property Opportunities saw an uplift in its share price after announcing debt refinancing and a disposal. CLS Holdings, the investor in offices in Germany, France and the UK, continued to see a recovery in its share price – which has risen 15.1% in the last three months. Off the back of solid results, Berlin residential landlord Phoenix Spree Deutschland saw its share price gain 7.2%. Schroder REIT’s share price rose 6.6% in the month as it embarked on a share buyback programme, while Irish commercial property investor Yew Grove REIT also saw positive shareholder reaction to amending its investment strategy to increase its target loan to value ratio to 40%.
Companies: SUPR DIGS CRC PSDL ASEI TPON RLE UKCM BREI BCPT RGL SIR SLI TOWN CAL
ANGLE plc (AGL.L): Acceptance of FDA submission | Feedback plc (FDBK.L*): Partnership agreement | Open Orphan (ORPH.L): Human Challenge Study Model contract with UK Government
Companies: AGL FDBK ORPH
Whilst there are some bright spots, such as payments companies, which are beneficiaries of the shift to online shopping, fears about the potential impact of COVID-19 have hit valuations across much of the financial sector. The fall in Polar Capital Global Financials Trust’s (PCFT’s) NAV reflects this situation.
Companies: Polar Capital Global Fincls Trust
Deltic Energy is entering an exciting phase in its development based on its fully funded joint-venture projects with Shell. Preparations are now underway for an exploration well to test the Pensacola Zechstein prospect in the SNS (Southern North Sea). Deltic has indicated that it expects the current contingent well commitment to become firm on schedule by December 1, 2020. Drilling, according to Deltic, should follow in H2 2021. We see scope for positive news flow over the next few months, not least from the evaluation of Shell’s recently obtained processed 3-D seismic over Pensacola. Following Pensacola, the Selene prospect is scheduled to be drilled in mid-2022. The recent 32nd Round UKCS licence awards greatly expands Deltic’s exploration potential in the CNS and particularly the SNS Carboniferous fairway. Here some highly prospective acreage has been obtained.
Companies: Deltic Energy PLC
To achieve YoY revenue growth over H1/20A despite the challenges of Covid-19 and its impact on the travel sector is testament to Equals' resilience and increasing focus on B2B and International payments services. While weaker gross profit and EBITDA margins have impacted profitability in H1/20, we see potential for an earnings recovery in H2/20 given cost reduction measures currently being undertaken. This should lead Equals to cash breakeven in Q4/20 and FCF positive by early FY21.
Companies: Equals Group Plc