THE MONTHLY April 2020

THE MONTHLY March 2020

Much of the UK’s privatisation programme took place between the early 1980s and the mid-1990s: subsequent sales have been few. Undoubtedly, privatisation attracted many private investors to the market, many for the first time.

Follow the money

In this note, we remind investors of Volta’s attractions and risks, focus on how it generates the cash to pay the dividend, and look at some of the issues from the latest Report and Accounts. The core to paying the dividend, and its long-term sustainability, is generating cash from the underlying 700 borrowers, a broad diversification by counter-party, geography and economic sector. Currently, a near record level of income yield is being generated. While recent months have seen both forex and sentiment volatility with a range of positive and negative capital movements, the long-term performance will be driven by cash generation. The discount appears anomalous given Volta’s track record.

Hardman & Co Monthly: February 2020

We recently published a paper, Share ownership: For the many, not the few, based on a statistical survey of share ownership, produced jointly with Argus Vickers, the share analysis service. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has now issued its equivalent survey. This paper compares its results with ours. Although there are, inevitably, differences in the detail, the two surveys reach the same conclusions.

Follow the money

In this note, we remind investors of Volta’s attractions and risks, focus on how it generates the cash to pay the dividend, and look at some of the issues from the latest Report and Accounts. The core to paying the dividend, and its long-term sustainability, is generating cash from the underlying 700 borrowers, a broad diversification by counter-party, geography and economic sector. Currently, a near record level of income yield is being generated. While recent months have seen both forex and sentiment volatility with a range of positive and negative capital movements, the long-term performance will be driven by cash generation. The discount appears anomalous given Volta’s track record.

THE MONTHLY January 2020

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is due to publish its most up-to-date survey on share ownership in mid-January, which identifies the beneficial owners and decision- makers of the stock market. Hardman & Co has worked together with the share analysis service, Argus Vickers, to jointly produce its own survey, which anticipates the conclusions of the ONS survey but goes into much greater detail. Our work does not use a sample of 200 quoted companies as the ONS historically has, but rather includes everyUK quoted company. The ONS samples share registers every two years; our study uses six-monthly data points. Our survey also extends to shareholders on NEX; the ONS does not.

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

9%+ yield in uncertain times

In this note, we remind investors of Volta’s many attractions, and examine what would be required for the Volta 9%+ yield to be seriously threatened. We note the broad diversification of underlying cashflows, the consistency of income and monthly returns, and the manager’s excellent track record. We also explore the business dynamics in a downturn and how investor sentiment may be less volatile with increased cov-lite documentation. The discount appears anomalous relative to peers given Volta’s track record and the issues identified above.

THE MONTHLY October 2019

Since their privatisation in 1989, the 10 water companies have faced a periodic review every five years; it is undertaken by Ofwat, and prescribes customer prices, along with the investment requirements. As part of the ongoing review, PR19, Ofwat will publish its Final Determination numbers on 11 December 2019; they will apply as from April 2020, although water companies do have the option to seek a reference to the CMA.

THE MONTHLY September 2019

The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.

THE MONTHLY August 2019

The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.

THE MONTHLY July 2019

When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.

Manager’s Hardman & Co Forum presentation

Serge Demay, from Fund Manager AXA IM, gave an investor presentation at the Hardman & Co 17 June 2019 Forum (video https://www.hardmanandco.com/juneinvestor-forum/). We produced a short note for this event, Volta Finance: 9% yield from diversified corporate loan portfolio. In this report, we address the questions that were raised at both the Forum and in the one-on-one discussions our analyst had with attendees post the event. The bias was on credit and how the portfolio may optimise returns if the expected gentle economic deterioration happens.

The Promised Land

Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).

UK Housebuilding Sector: 2020 vision: Sharpness and clarity for industry prospects

For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).