paragon - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web

paragon - Navigating the road to growth

While we believe H223 represents a pause in growth at paragon’s ongoing automotive operations, we are cutting our near-term EBITDA margin contribution from the Electronics segment. As a result, we lower our FY23e and FY24e sales estimates by 2% and 3% and EBITDA by 25% and 17% respectively, reducing our DCF valuation to €9.4/share.

paragon - Navigating the road ahead

Following a significant refocusing in recent years, paragon has returned to its core strengths as a supplier of electronic and kinematic content to major automotive producers globally. It seeks to address the global megatrends that are important to the automotive industry, namely climate change (CO2 reduction), digitisation, increasing comfort and urbanisation.

paragon - A dip in the road ahead

paragon expects extended summer breaks and anticipated year-end shutdowns of customer plants to restrict growth in H223. We have reduced our earnings expectations to reflect the disposal of the battery business and resulting lower growth trajectory, with FY23 and FY24 EPS estimates falling by 9% and 11% respectively. However, the debt reduction continues and the ownership issues have been resolved. Further news on the plan for the Eurobond redemption has yet to be communicated, but should improv

paragon - Navigating the road to redemption

paragon continued its debt reduction programme in Q223 with the disposal of semvox. Operating performance progressed positively with H123 sales rising 7% and EBITDA margin in Q223 exceeding 10%, although the business mix shifted towards Mechanics as new contracts ramped up. Management has maintained FY23 guidance and we have modestly reduced our earnings estimates to reflect the mix change as well as higher interest in FY23. As the debt reduction programme continues into FY24 we expect lower int

paragon - Radically improving the investment case

So far in 2023 paragon has sold its semvox subsidiary, fully redeemed its Swiss franc (CHF) bond and is preparing for the remainder of the accelerated €25m Eurobond partial redemption, while delivering positive Q123 results. Once the Eurobond payment is complete, investors’ focus should return to the equity investment case. Risk reduction of the business model and a clear growth strategy still appear underrated by the market.

paragon - Further progression of debt reduction plans

paragon has announced the result of the Eurobond tender offer at 60% of nominal, securing just under €1.7m nominal out of a potential €5m. The offer forms part of the ongoing debt reduction programme that will see the majority of the outstanding bond liabilities (both Swiss franc and euro) redeemed over the next few months (see our previous note). While the shares and bonds have been responding well to the management initiatives, these appear to pose a considerable potential opportunity for inve

paragon - Risk reduction should relieve the equity rating

paragon appears to be progressively de-risking its investment proposition. The agreed sale of Semvox crystallises an enterprise value (EV) that highlights the depressed market cap due to the debt burden. The accelerated redemption of the entire Swiss franc (CHF) bond issue and half the Eurobond reduces debt metrics to typical industrial levels, and we expect improving cash flows to facilitate final redemption in 2027. The result is an apparently anomalous rating for paragon compared to its estim

paragon - Agreement to sell paragon semvox

paragon has announced that it is to sell its digital assistance business unit, paragon semvox, to CARIAD, the wholly owned software subsidiary of Volkswagen. The anticipated price is c €40m, which equates to approximately 33% of paragon’s enterprise value. The disposal seems likely to provide sufficient liquidity to satisfy paragon’s bond redemptions for FY23, which should finally release the shackles on the rating. The final timing of regulatory approvals, and any additional accelerated redempt

paragon - Building momentum in Q222

paragon’s Q222 results show an acceleration of revenue growth across the business and, while adjusted EBITDA was modestly lower, management has increased guidance. It now expects FY22 revenues of €170m while continuing to expect an EBITDA margin over 15%, with free cash flow (FCF) of €12m. While the equity value remains subordinate to financing bond redemption issues, we anticipate positive progress by the year end.

paragon - Refocused automotive growth strategy

paragon has spent much of the pandemic refocusing on its core automotive activities and addressing the issue of bond refinancing. Both are now largely complete and management’s revised growth strategy targets ambitious financial targets over the next few years, with a positive start already made. As much of its product portfolio is fuel type agnostic, paragon is well positioned to address the evolving connectivity, digitalisation and electrification requirements of electric vehicles (EVs). We be

paragon - Focused on growing automotive technology

paragon’s renewed focus on its core Automotive operations should soon be confirmed by the divestment of Voltabox. The refreshed strategy remains to drive sustainable, profitable growth through the development of innovative proprietary technology solutions and expanding geographical penetration and footprint. Despite the pandemic disruption to global car production, paragon Automotive is delivering strong sales growth. FY21 revenue guidance is for €145m with EBITDA margins of 12–15%. We expect a

paragon - Refocusing on automotive innovation

paragon’s focus will return to its core Automotive operations once the disposal of the remaining 58% stake in Voltabox is completed. The strategy remains to drive sustainable profitable growth through the development of innovative proprietary technology solutions. The continuing operations showed better than expected sales growth in FY19 and are performing well as pandemic lockdowns ease. FY20 guidance was raised again following Q320 results on 30 October 2020. We expect market recovery and new

paragon - Seeking sustainable growth

While Q319 results confirm the anticipated issues in Electromobility (Voltabox), with a more robust performance from the automotive segments (Electronics and Mechanics), there are signs that management is addressing the shortcomings. Indeed, some more positive elements are evident at this early stage, notably the trade receivables reduction as planned. A more prudent view of growth with stronger profitability and positive cash flow is indicated by initial FY20 guidance. The challenge now is to r

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: H1 in-line amid reviving investor appetite

Watkin Jones’s guidance for FY24E is unchanged in its trading update for the first half to 31 March. We maintain our forecasts for the full year and introduce half-year estimates, in line with reiterated guidance that performance will be significantly H2 weighted. The group confirms a continuing gradual recovery in appetite among institutional investors to forward fund its build-to-rent (BTR) and student developments. We believe this should gather pace as the direction of interest rates becomes

Ceres Power Holdings - Strategic partnerships powering growth

Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth drivers show their value in challenging trading conditions

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced its FY24 full-year results, which are in line with the headline figures from its February trading update. A record year for Licensing and a strong performance in the key North America market helped to offset a challenging consumer environment in other geographies, most notably the UK. While this backdrop is set to persist in FY25E, the group will continue to focus on its strategic growth drivers, notably North America and Licensing, to deliver sharehold

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 25 April 2024

25th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Smart Metering Systems (SMS.L) has delisted from the AIM market What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

Surface Transforms - Fund raise for the profitable growth phase

SCE is raising £16m through a placing (and up to a further £3m through open offer) to fund substantial expansion and additional working capital. This will enable the Group to grow to £75m revenue capacity in the near term, commence the build and equipping of a new factory and then (with internally generated free cash flow) scale to £150m revenue capacity and beyond. With a contracted order book of £190m and a prospective pipeline of £400m, this is clearly the time to seize the opportunity. The e

Solid State - Anticipating record adjusted PBT in FY24

Solid State’s trading update affirms the sustained strength in demand throughout H224, resulting in record FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT ahead of prior consensus of £155m and £12.5m, respectively. This is attributable to the earlier-than-expected delivery of a NATO contract. As a result, consensus FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT estimates have been raised by c 6% and c 20%, with respective FY25 estimates declining commensurately.

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - January 2024

Subsector price performance: In the fourth quarter to 29 December 2023 all but the AAA publishers and platform subsector saw share price declines. The UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing subsector (-26.2%) over the quarter and LTM (-70.1%).

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Time to focus on growth ambitions

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 2024

Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Delivering to strategy against an unhelpful global backdrop

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) continues to deliver on its key strategic initiatives and growth drivers despite a challenging global backdrop. The group’s FY23 performance showed flat revenue, with adjusted underlying PBT rising £0.1m to £12.6m. Net cash dropped back to £15.4m, with the total dividend maintained at 3.5p. The star performers were Licensing (reported revenue +25%), the Morris & Co brand (+16%) and the US market (+20%). Our forecast revisions assume more modest sales progression, wit

Morning Note – 4 April 2024