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Breakfast Today

  • 28 Sep 16

"How to solve the dilemma of ultra-low interest rates? The question was being posed again yesterday by members of both the ECB and the Fed. The Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Philip Lane, went as far as calling for a ‘forceful pursuit of stimulus’ in order to return interest rates to more normal levels, while Vice Chairman, Stanley Fisher, added that the economy is better off when there is ‘a price for using money’. They are simply reflecting the common desire to stimulate inflation to return interest rates and growth trajectories back to more historical trend - not that they have any chance of forming a consensus on how to do it, nor appear to embrace the reality that the dramatic changes to world order being created through the drive into new technologies means the old ways of doing things and predictable economics have probably gone forever. One hope the markets had had was that the Saudi-Russia proposal to cap oil production might succeed, but Iran’s stated determination to ramp-up production until it hits 4.2m bbl/day appears to have blown apart any idea of OPEC reasserting a binding quota system before its meeting in Algiers closes today, leaving oil traders to shift their focus to the Organisation’s next scheduled meeting in November instead. US equity markets, however, looked beyond these concerns to focus on positives from technology and consumer stocks, as well as some modest recovery in the over-sold banking sector, leaving all principal indices to close quite firmly up led from the start by the NASDAQ. Asia by contrast was marked down across the board, with the Nikkei in particular hurt by weaker oil prices, while banking sector jitters also reached its shores and sentiment toward export-related shares continued to be knocked by Yen strength. This mixed picture leaves London and Europe in an undecided mood for this morning’s opening, with the FTSE-100 seen opening around 10 points higher. No major UK macro data is due for release this morning, although traders will be listening out for closing statements from OPEC’s 2-day meeting, a press statement due from ECB President, Mario Draghi and a speech from the IMF’s Christine Lagarde. Later this afternoon, Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, is due to make her Testimony, while member Kashkari is also scheduled to make a statement. Corporates due to release earnings reports include Moss Bros (MOSB.L), Sainsbury (SBRY.L) and Smiths Group (SMIN.L), while today SAB Miller (SAB.L) shareholders are due to vote on their proposed merger with Anheuser Busch InBev." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst