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The quarter continued to enjoy stronger-than-expected revenue momentum driven by interest and, to a lesser extent, non-interest income while the asset quality trends remained benign.
Companies: AIB Group plc
AlphaValue
The first-half’s profitability skyrocketed to excessive levels driven by a stronger-than-expected net interest margin widening. This performance should be repeated in the second half. It remains to be seen where the management will place the new sustainable profitability, but it is likely to be at least in the mid-teens.
The first quarter enjoyed stronger-than-expected interest rate tailwinds thus enabling the management to upgrade its full-year guidance. Asset quality trends proved also more resilient, paving the way for further upgrades.
Like BOI yesterday, the net interest margin skyrocketed to unprecedented and hard-to-justify levels. Management now expects to meet its +13% 2024 financial objective as soon as this year. However, it is worth remembering that, contrary to BOI, it is set on CET1 (@13.5%) and corresponds in reality to a relatively unambitious +10-11% RoTE.
Management slightly upgraded its top-line guidance for 2022 driven by both interest and non-interest income, while the acquisition of Ulster Bank will distort the second half materially.
The first-quarter results were largely in line with the group’s expectations thus enabling it to qualify them as strong. The full-year guidance was upgraded on stronger net interest income largely driven by scope changes but also by the progressive support from interest rate increases.
The third quarter enjoyed further net provision recoveries and confirmed fee income recovery. The net interest margin remained under strong pressure but will benefit from a stronger TLTRO relief in Q4. The balance sheet has been positioned to benefit from interest hikes, if any.
The first half of the year was impacted by heavy charges, fortunately mitigated by strong loan provision releases. Management increased its 2023 RoTE objective by 1ppt to above 9%, a demanding target that still has to be reflected in consensus or AV projections.
The quarter was in line with management’s full-year guidance, showing the first signs of a net interest margin recovery and normalisation of fee income generation and cost of risk.
The group managed to post almost breakeven second-half profits thanks to cost control and a sharp reduction in the cost of risk. The return to decent profitability levels remains a distant objective despite the strong planned cost reduction and the expected fast cost of risk normalisation thus evidencing structural troubles.
Management did not hesitate to frontload the bulk of the expected annual COVID-19 impact, although the first-half pre-provision performance was affected by depressed revenue generation and a rigid cost base. The group’s recovery potential remains the big unknown.
The limited first quarter loss only partially captures the pending impact of the COVID-19-induced recession as, contrary to BOI yesterday, the group made it clear that the retained macro-economic scenario is now too optimistic.
The second-half showed a sharp net interest margin squeeze and a deteriorating efficiency. Management’s guidance for this year points to a confirmation of these trends. Although it is committed to offsetting accelerated investments with strong staff cuts by 2022, the viability of its above 8% mid-term RoTE objective will rely on its ability to expand the business in CIB and the UK.
The third-quarter results showed ongoing net interest margin pressure and operating expenses inflation in a context of cost of risk normalisation. Unfortunately, one will have to wait until the release of the group’s full-year results due on 6 March 2020 to know management’s action plan.
The half-year results showed a net interest margin squeeze, efficiency deterioration and increased capital consumption, notwithstanding the strong pending impact of the review of the mortgage model.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on AIB Group plc. We currently have 0 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Companies: Plus500 Ltd.
Liberum
Tatton, the leading on-platform discretionary fund manager (DFM) and IFA support services Group has released a trading update ahead of its results to 31 March 2024, due on 18 June 2024.
Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
Zeus Capital
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Ondo InsurTech has released a brief post-YE update revealing its good progress continued through 2H24 and consequently FY24 will be in line with market expectations.
Companies: Ondo Insur Tech PLC
Dowgate Capital
BRWM’s managers: we see all the classic signs of high commodity prices...
Companies: Blackrock World Mining Trust PLC
Kepler | Trust Intelligence
The refinancing of a £135m revolving credit facility and the extension of a similar £70m facility gives NESF firepower as development opportunities for new solar are especially attractive thanks to lower module prices in Europe. They give the fund key financial flexibility at a critical time as it pursues its capital recycling programme.
Companies: NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd
Longspur Clean Energy
Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol
Companies: NBPE ICGT ARBB RECI CLIG HAT AVO VTA APAX
Companies: UTL ASC DNLM BWNG MONY DFS BOO
Shore Capital
Companies: M Winkworth plc
Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long
Companies: Vp plc
Equity Development
16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for
Companies: IP BILN SAR GATC ASTO PHE SHOE CCS IP CUSN
Hybridan
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
AUM jumped £3.8bn or +30% in FY24, reaching £16.6bn on 31 Mar 24, 12% above our previous forecast of £14.7bn. Including 50%-owned 8AM Global, Assets Under Influence hit £17.6bn. Investment performance provided a tailwind, adding £1.5bn to AUM. But our key takeaway from Tatton’s hugely impressive last few years, is that it has designed and implemented a superior offering in platform-MPS with net flows consistently far higher than peers. That leadership looks even more pronounced in H2-24 with net
Companies: discoverIE Group PLC (DSCV:LON)LendInvest PLC (LINV:LON)
Cavendish
NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF) is almost 10 years old. Since launch, it has built a £1.2bn, 933MW portfolio of 100 operating solar assets, powering the equivalent of over 330,000 homes, declared dividends totalling £333m, and avoided the emission of about 2.2 Mt CO2e. NESF is on track to pay 8.35p in dividends, with forecast dividend cover of about 1.3x. Share price weakness that has afflicted the whole sector means that dividend translates to a yield of 11.1%, one of the highest in its sector, a
QuotedData
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