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Kingfisher’s trading performance for Q3 FY23/24 was below AV and the market’s expectations. The Group’s lfl sales declined by 3.9% yoy, once again due to a poor showing in France and Poland. The management issued a profit warning as the softness has continued even during the initial weeks of the Q4. We are likely to reduce our financial estimates by around 8-10% for the forecast years. However, the stock’s valuation is not expensive at the current levels and we maintain our positive recommendati
Companies: Kingfisher Plc
AlphaValue
Kingfisher’s H1 FY23/24 lfl sales was 40bp ahead of market expectations but the PBT was 5.4% weaker. Although UK&I sales remained in the black, the performances in France and Poland were the pain-points. The Q3 lfl performance (to date) of -2.4% yoy is also below market expectations. We expect the pressure on earnings to continue during H2. Management has lowered FY23/24 PBT guidance to £590m (vs £634m earlier). We will reduce the target price by 7-8% but maintain our positive recommendation.
Kingfisher’s Q1 trading performance was stronger than ours as well as the market’s expectations. The Group’s lfl sales of -3.3% yoy was 140bp ahead of the consensus, mainly attributable to the UK&I (-0.8% yoy; +150 bp vs consensus). The impact of the adverse weather conditions and strikes in France are non-structural issues. The management has announced a better-than-expected start to Q2 and has also stated that it is comfortable with the current profit consensus. We maintain our positive stock
Kingfisher’s FY22 performance was a mixed bag. The Group’s lfl sales declined by 2.1% yoy, with no surprises in the UK and France businesses. The adjusted PBT of £758m (-20.2% yoy) was 2.3% ahead of the market expectations. The FCF softness was a one-off in our opinion. We expect kingfisher to continue to gain market share in the core segments. The strategy to roll out compact store formats and monetize retail media opportunities are steps in the right direction. No major changes expected in ou
Kingfisher Q3 trading witnessed all banners performing ahead of market expectations. While lfls declined in the UK, the group’s lfl sales (+0.2% yoy) were led by the French and Polish businesses (+0.6% and +7.6%, respectively). Despite overall market share gains and a strong showing during the initial three weeks of Q4 (+2.8% yoy), investors disliked the hair cut in the FY22 PBT guidance (£730-760m vs £730-770m earlier). This is not a big issue in our view. We will upgrade our financial estimate
There were no major surprises in Kingfisher’s H1 FY22/23 performance. The group’s lfl sales came in at -4.1% yoy (vs consensus of -4.2%). Almost all banners performed in line with expectations. A good start to Q3 also bodes well for Kingfisher to achieve FY22/23 consensus. However, we expect the overall business performance (home improvement demand) to come under pressure during the forecast years as rising inflation and a fragile economic outlook dents consumer sentiment. We maintain a positive
Kingfisher’s Q1 trading was stronger than market expectations. Lfl revenue was 1.4% ahead of the street’s estimates, with the momentum led by all business segments. Among the positives: 1) the DIY and DIFM demand remains strong and, hence, management was able to pass on the pricing pressure to customers, and 2) Q2 has started on a similar note, and the supply chain is not concerning, at the moment. Still, we expect consumer demand to slow from H2 onwards.
Kingfisher’s FY21 performance was a mixed bag – lfl sales were stronger than expected but the adjusted earnings missed the consensus slightly. Investors seem to be panicking due to management’s commentary about heightened macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainties plus a softer start to Q1 FY22/23. We do not see this as a surprise (considering the tough comparable base) and expect the company to continue gaining market share in key operating regions. No change to the stock’s recommendation.
Kingfisher’s Q3 trading sales were slightly ahead of our estimates. The company continued to gain market share and has also made a promising start to Q4 (+0.4% lfl up to 13 November). However, the stock slipped post the results as the FY21/22 outlook upgrade was disappointing, considering the momentum of company’s ytd performance. We do not see any structural issue with the business model and maintain the stock recommendation.
Kingfisher reported better-than-expected figures at its H1 FY21/22 results, with lfl sales and adjusted PBT coming in ahead of market expectations and management’s guidance. Lfl sales outlook for H2 has been raised, the share buy-back programme re-introduced and the interim dividend increased. However, the share price was down c.5% today, as investors worried about inflationary cost pressures and supply chain constraints which are expected to continue into 2022. We will update our estimates and
Kingfisher’s Q2 FY21/22 trading update came in ahead of market expectations. Following an impressive c.64% lfl sales growth in Q1, the momentum finally receded with Q2 registering a sales decline of >1% so far, as DIY spend tailwinds unwind. On the back of the better-than-expected performance, management upgraded its sales and profitability outlook for H1 FY21/22. Although we will raise the estimates and target price, ‘Reduce’ recommendation is re-affirmed as DIY spend normalises and the limited
Q1 sales galloped c.64% yoy (in lfl terms) as consumers’ demand for DIY products sustained, besides favourable comparables. Given the strong sales trends in Q1 and early May, management revised upwards its sales and adjusted PBT guidance. We will raise our estimates, but are likely to maintain our cautious stance as the current DIY spend momentum seems unsustainable.
Kingfisher delivered better-than-expected FY20/21 results. The group’s lfl sales grew >15% yoy in Q4, bringing the FY sales growth to c.7%, driven by higher DIY consumer demand. Cost control measures along with robust top-line growth aided the retail profit to come in >27% higher. Looking ahead, management expects growth momentum to continue in the near term, with tough comparable and moderating consumer demand to weigh in on the top line in H2. Management has also resumed the dividend pay-out.
Kingfisher continued to register strong sales growth in Q4 FY20/21, buoyed by the higher DIY spend by consumers since the onset of the pandemic. Management continues to refrain from providing full-year revenue guidance, citing the pandemic-related uncertainties and the impact of lockdown restrictions. We maintain a positive outlook on the stock.
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Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs
Companies: Vertu Motors PLC
Progressive Equity Research
Today’s trading statement from ZOO highlights a ramp-up in demand following the end to the industry-wide strikes of last year. ZOO struck a note of caution in its January update regarding the timing of orders. However new productions are starting to translate into a healthy order pipeline, with a good recovery in revenue anticipated in H1 FY25. The update guides to revenue of at least $40m for the year to March 2024, ahead of our estimate at $36.8m. We have improved our adjusted EBITDA loss marg
Companies: ZOO Digital Group plc
Loungers is an award winning, uniquely positioned all day café-bar group that has grown revenues an impressive 22.5% CAGR FY16-FY23. Comprising of Lounges, Cosy Club and Brightside, the 257-site group still has huge scope to grow towards its conservative ambition of over 650 sites. Loungers is profitable with improving margins and we forecast will generate over £100m free cashflow (pre-expansion capex) FY24E-FY26E. This, we estimate, will fully fund c.100 new site openings over the next three y
Companies: Loungers Plc
Equity Development
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
Companies: TXG NDVA TSVT BCOW Z29 TXG NCYT GNS SUN AMS OMG APH EKF EAH IMM AGL DEMG AGY TSTL IPO GDR ETX TRX HVO CTEC AVO OXB DEST VLG IXI VAL INDV AGR AVCT BAI 123F IMCR BCOW
Hardman & Co
Companies: Next plc (NXT:LON)Judges Scientific plc (JDG:LON)
Shore Capital
Companies: JDW MAB MARS WTB FSTA BOWL CPG SSPG LGRS SSTY OTB HSW TMO GYM MEX
Liberum
Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate
Companies: Pinewood Technologies Group PLC
Zeus Capital
This morning’s trading statement from ZOO confirms that production companies are taking longer than expected to complete projects. This follows the resumption of new production after the industry-wide strikes ended in November 2023. The anticipated January ramp-up has yet to fully materialise, with entertainment projects expected to complete in January now moving into February and beyond. However, ZOO has been notified by its largest customer of a pipeline of orders that provides good visibility
Companies: UTL ASC DNLM BWNG MONY DFS BOO
The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported a slowdown/fall in subscriber growth. Having formerly been seduced by hectic subscriber growth rates, investors quickly refocused, this time on fundamental metrics such as revenue, margins, profits and cashflow. Since then, streamers have continued to take a steadily greater share of viewing while linear TV continues to decline. But growth in streaming subscribers in the US and UK is now a
Companies: AMZN DIS WBD NFLX NFLX ITV STVG PARA AMZN DIS
Flutter reported softer than expected Q3 23 trading numbers, as unfavourable sports results weighed on the cross-market performance. The firm lost share in the US even as competition intensified in a seasonally light sports quarter, sending the stock sharply lower. However, we expect a strong recovery in the US in Q4 even as Australia is now expected to remain a pain point into FY24. We will trim our estimates by low to mid-single digits to factor in the soft showing.
Companies: Flutter Entertainment Plc
Companies: Rank Group Plc
Companies: CTG NXT JTC
During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main
Companies: ME Group International plc
Cavendish
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