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In line with expectations
12 Oct 16
Greggs enjoys a differentiated position in the growing food-to-go market. Its strategy to enhance its offer and improve the efficiency with which it delivers that offer has yielded good results so far and remains on track. Although the industry faces input cost headwinds in FY17, Greggs has the financial strength to withstand them and the benefit of the continuing strategic initiatives to offset them.
Remain confident in outlook, significant opportunity in valuation
22 Sep 16
At the final results in July, management stated that it was very confident in the outlook for the business and this was reflected in the 14% increase in the dividend, as well as increased guidance on synergies following the transformational acquisitions of Matthew Clark and Bibendum. Since then, we expect that confidence has not changed and our view remains that the risks still lie to the upside in terms of more synergies emerging over time. The size and clout of CVR in the UK drinks market is not fully reflected in the valuation and the shares continue to trade at a significant discount to the peer group.
More convincing on its home turf
19 Oct 16
Q3 16 sales including VAT came in at €21,781m, leading the total sales from the beginning of the year to €62.33bn. Q3 revenues progressed by 3.2% on a lfl basis driven by accelerated growth on its home turf (1.2%) and resilient business in Brazil (12.4%). In France, the supermarkets and convenience stores are the main growth drivers. In China, struggling operations witnessed a continuous fall in sales of 7.8% on a lfl basis. Carrefour faces also a difficult time in Poland where sales were slightly down.
Sales slowdown in France and currency gains in Brazil
13 Oct 16
Q3 sales progressed by 6.7% yoy to €10,425m, mainly driven by the LatAm retail business accounting for 37.14% of group sales (vs. 35.1% in Q2 16 and 30.0% in Q3 15). Casino derives 45.7% of its sales from its domestic market where growth slowed due to an underperforming non-food business hit by unfavourable weather conditions and the decline in tourist activity in Paris. The transfer of stores to franchisees and the closure of loss-making ones have remarkedly pulled down Leader Price, Franprix and Convenience’s total sales. Casino’s e-commerce business was hammered by Cnova Brazil (negative sales momentum for non-food products) while Cdiscount France is delivering strong results (+5.6% net sales growth).