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25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-05-2017
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Earnings enhancing acquisition | Conviviality (CVR LN) Raising a glass to a positive YE update | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Confidence in FX mitigations + staycation benefits | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) Successful launch of the UK’s maiden PRS REIT, raising £250m | Small-cap quantitative research Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks
Companies: HFD SGM SDM EYE SOG CLG MAB1 CVR GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET
22 May 17
Promising performance, strengthened proposition
Greggs has traded strongly for the first 19 weeks, and self-help measures such as refurbishments, openings, manufacturing rationalisation and product development continue to offer potential. Whether switching customers would be a net benefit in a consumer squeeze is uncertain, but the proposition is considerably stronger than when real wages were last negative. We retain our forecasts and valuation.
25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Conviviality - Raising a glass to a positive YE update
Conviviality’s YE update is on the whole positive. In a year when it has to do a lot of heavy lifting corporately and in driving cost synergies, it’s delivered strong financial metrics. Notably, >40% EPS growth; cracking LFL’s of 6.4% in the Direct division; Retail moving into positive LFL’s in H2; and net-debt lower than our forecast. So in short, delivering against strategic plan in both the on and off trade. Looking forward, the business has good momentum going into FY18 and further cost and sales synergies to capture. The only disappointment this morning is that there is not a beat in terms of EBITDA and EPS outcome for the year, with management guiding to an in-line outcome. This implies c.3% downside to our FY17 and FY18 EPS forecasts to bring us closer to consensus. The shares have had a great run, but given the trading and strategic momentum we feel an FY18 P/E of 14x is not overly expensive. The c.4% yield is also attractive. Using a SOTP analysis, we lift our 12m TP from 290p to 350p. Whilst the best of the share price outperformance is behind us, we stay at a Buy on a 12m view.
25 May 17
Positive FY17 trading update, reassuringly in line with expectations and confident outlook
CVR has this morning released a positive trading update for year ended 30 April 2017, with full year performance reassuringly in line with management and market expectations. Each of the three business divisions performed strongly, and management remain confident in the outlook and plan to deliver significant synergies following the transformational acquisitions of Matthew Clark and Bibendum, with integration plans continuing to progress well. Despite the shares being up c.50% over the past six months, our view remains that the risks still lie to the upside as more synergies could emerge over time. The size and influence of CVR in the UK drinks market is not fully reflected in the valuation and the shares continue to trade at a discount to the peer group. Despite the Booker takeover premium of 24x P/E to December 17, in our view CVR trading on 13.0x to April 18 with a yield of 4.4% remains too cheap. If it were to trade on 16x this would imply a price of 380p, and 18x would imply a price of 404p.
02 Mar 17
Small Cap Breakfast
First Derivatives (FDP.L) | Field Systems Designs (NEX:FSD) | Base Resources (BSE.L) | Morses Club (MCL.L) | HML Holdings (HML.L) | Molins (MLIN.L) | Total Produce (TOT.L) | Diurnal Group (DNL.L) | S u n r i s e R e s o u r c e s (SRES.L) | Osirium Technologies (OSI.L)
Companies: FDP BSE MCL HMLH MLIN TOT DNL SRES OSI
26 Feb 16
Living wage bolsters retail/leisure outlook
Recent market turmoil offers selective buying opportunities in the General Retail and Leisure sectors. Key UK macro data-points all continue to look supportive of consumer spending, now with added stimulus from the Living Wage (LW). This backdrop can drive outperformance with reasonable upside risk to earnings and valuations on a 1-2 year view, especially stocks biased to low-to-mid income groups and/or exposed to online and retail parks, with limited LW costs. We advocate a positive stance on 12 stocks based on fundamentals, improving spend dynamics stemming from the LW, and oversold positions or rating differentials: BCA Marketplace, Cineworld, Conviviality, CVS (Corp), Dunelm (NR), Greggs (Corp), Halfords, Marston’s, N Brown, Safestyle UK, Safestay (NR) and ScS (NR). Ret ail & Leisure Sect or
Companies: BCA CINE CVR CVSG DNLM GRG HFD BWNG SSTY SFE SCS MARS