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JOHN B SANFILIPPO & SON INC
JOHN B SANFILIPPO & SON INC
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
FY16 pre-close +ve surprise: Raising FY16, 17, 18 PBT c.1%, 4% and 6%
12 Jan 17
Today’s slightly better-than-expected FY16 pre-close trading statement prompts us to raise our FY16 PBT estimate by c.1%, reflecting the combination of (1) growth in several of HFG’s key markets, (2) strong overall operating performance, and (3) favourable fx translational benefits (recalling that 62% of FY15 sales were ex-UK). To reflect the positive profit contribution impact of the Portuguese j/v agreement signed on January 4th, the j/v income line is boosted by €1.5m (c.£1.3m) and €2.5m (c.£2.2m) in FY17 and FY18 respectively, representing upgrades of c.4% and c.6%. Once operating at full capacity utilisation, the j/v could well add €3m (c.£2.6m) in FY19. To reflect (1) our increased FY16-FY18 forecasts, (2) current peer EV/EBITDA valuation multiples, and (3) our view that HFG now deserves to trade at a premium to the peer group in view of its impressively strong financial track record (i.e. FY06-FY16 since IPO) for organic and investment-led profitable growth, combined with an array of emerging, highly promising initiatives (see our note “Start of a new chapter of growth” published on October 4th) to expand the scale and scope of HFG’s core business, we raise our TP to 805p (previously 755p). Maintain BUY.
N+1 Singer - Nichols - Diversified strategy continues to help deliver another year of strong growth
10 Jan 17
Nichols has issued a positive year-end trading update with strong progress in evidence across both the UK and International activities resulting in total sales +7.3% (virtually all LFL). This is a very pleasing outcome given the tough trading environment. The business continues to comfortably outperform a difficult UK soft drinks market, led by Vimto and the strategic strengthening of the out-of homes category following the Noisy acquisition. This differentiation theme is further reinforced by the International business continuing to show good momentum, especially Africa. We upgrade our FY16 PBT up by a very modest £0.1m, implying 10% EPS growth, but make no forecast changes for the outer years until we get better clarity on the cost headwinds. The company trades on a cal’17 P/E of 22.7x and 16.0x EV/EBITDA. The shares have been firm ahead of today’s update and are likely to consolidate in the short-term, but we remain positive on a 12m view given the groups dependable growth and international characteristics.
19 Dec 16
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Proud as a Peacock
21 Dec 16
Greencore’s (GNC LN, BUY, 310p) Chief Financial Officer Eoin Tonge presented to Whitman Howard’s equity salesforce yesterday, 20th December 2016. Key messages included a positive outlook for UK Food to Go, sustained momentum within the incumbent US business – notable accounts include 7-Eleven and Starbucks – and positive expectations for the newly acquired Peacock Foods. The company appears well placed to perform positively in FY2017