Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-05-2017
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Earnings enhancing acquisition | Conviviality (CVR LN) Raising a glass to a positive YE update | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Confidence in FX mitigations + staycation benefits | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) Successful launch of the UK’s maiden PRS REIT, raising £250m | Small-cap quantitative research Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks
Companies: HFD SGM SDM EYE SOG CLG MAB1 CVR GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET
25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Conviviality - Raising a glass to a positive YE update
Conviviality’s YE update is on the whole positive. In a year when it has to do a lot of heavy lifting corporately and in driving cost synergies, it’s delivered strong financial metrics. Notably, >40% EPS growth; cracking LFL’s of 6.4% in the Direct division; Retail moving into positive LFL’s in H2; and net-debt lower than our forecast. So in short, delivering against strategic plan in both the on and off trade. Looking forward, the business has good momentum going into FY18 and further cost and sales synergies to capture. The only disappointment this morning is that there is not a beat in terms of EBITDA and EPS outcome for the year, with management guiding to an in-line outcome. This implies c.3% downside to our FY17 and FY18 EPS forecasts to bring us closer to consensus. The shares have had a great run, but given the trading and strategic momentum we feel an FY18 P/E of 14x is not overly expensive. The c.4% yield is also attractive. Using a SOTP analysis, we lift our 12m TP from 290p to 350p. Whilst the best of the share price outperformance is behind us, we stay at a Buy on a 12m view.
22 May 17
Promising performance, strengthened proposition
Greggs has traded strongly for the first 19 weeks, and self-help measures such as refurbishments, openings, manufacturing rationalisation and product development continue to offer potential. Whether switching customers would be a net benefit in a consumer squeeze is uncertain, but the proposition is considerably stronger than when real wages were last negative. We retain our forecasts and valuation.
25 May 17
Positive FY17 trading update, reassuringly in line with expectations and confident outlook
CVR has this morning released a positive trading update for year ended 30 April 2017, with full year performance reassuringly in line with management and market expectations. Each of the three business divisions performed strongly, and management remain confident in the outlook and plan to deliver significant synergies following the transformational acquisitions of Matthew Clark and Bibendum, with integration plans continuing to progress well. Despite the shares being up c.50% over the past six months, our view remains that the risks still lie to the upside as more synergies could emerge over time. The size and influence of CVR in the UK drinks market is not fully reflected in the valuation and the shares continue to trade at a discount to the peer group. Despite the Booker takeover premium of 24x P/E to December 17, in our view CVR trading on 13.0x to April 18 with a yield of 4.4% remains too cheap. If it were to trade on 16x this would imply a price of 380p, and 18x would imply a price of 404p.
02 Mar 17
Small Cap Breakfast
First Derivatives (FDP.L) | Field Systems Designs (NEX:FSD) | Base Resources (BSE.L) | Morses Club (MCL.L) | HML Holdings (HML.L) | Molins (MLIN.L) | Total Produce (TOT.L) | Diurnal Group (DNL.L) | S u n r i s e R e s o u r c e s (SRES.L) | Osirium Technologies (OSI.L)
Companies: FDP BSE MCL HMLH MLIN TOT DNL SRES OSI
04 May 17
Sainsbury sales improved by 11.6% yoy to £26,224m benefiting from the acquisition of Argos with a 14.5% growth contribution. However, retail revenues (including VAT) decreased on a lfl basis impacted by food price deflation over the H1 and the continuing price investment. The underlying operating profit came in at £688m, losing 1.2% yoy on lower profitability in mainly the retail division (Sainsbury’s bank contributed 9% vs. 9.3% one year ago). Group net profit declined to £377m vs. £471m in 2015/16. Sainsbury succeeded in reducing its net debt due to higher cash from operations, especially from its bank. However, as with its British peers, the pension deficit has more than doubled to £974m taking into account the acquisition of Home retail Group and loss on measurement. The dividend has been set at 6.6 pence per share, bringing the FY dividend to 10.2 pence vs. 12.1 pence one year ago. This dividend cut is in line with our expectations.
Companies: J Sainsbury