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More convincing on its home turf
19 Oct 16
Q3 16 sales including VAT came in at €21,781m, leading the total sales from the beginning of the year to €62.33bn. Q3 revenues progressed by 3.2% on a lfl basis driven by accelerated growth on its home turf (1.2%) and resilient business in Brazil (12.4%). In France, the supermarkets and convenience stores are the main growth drivers. In China, struggling operations witnessed a continuous fall in sales of 7.8% on a lfl basis. Carrefour faces also a difficult time in Poland where sales were slightly down.
Lower than expected margin
24 Oct 16
Jeronimo Martins released strong Q3 sales growth leading to a 5.5% rise over the last nine months. Total sales reached €10,738m and EBITDA stood at €626,9m, i.e. an EBITDA margin at 5.8%, flat compared to 2015. The 9M net result came in at €501.6m, including gains from the Monterroio disposal for €224m. Adjusted net profit amounted to €266m, 5.6% yoy, boosted by a lower cost of debt. Biedronka remains the main driver for both the group’s top-line and profitability which offset a slight decrease in the Polish business margin (10bp). The underperformance of Ara and Hebe is more pronounced this year due to Ara’s network expansion (expected to be above 2015’s level). Despite the substantial capex, JM continues to enjoy a solid balance sheet with a lower debt burden (reaching €326m vs. €658m in 2015).
Remain confident in outlook, significant opportunity in valuation
22 Sep 16
At the final results in July, management stated that it was very confident in the outlook for the business and this was reflected in the 14% increase in the dividend, as well as increased guidance on synergies following the transformational acquisitions of Matthew Clark and Bibendum. Since then, we expect that confidence has not changed and our view remains that the risks still lie to the upside in terms of more synergies emerging over time. The size and clout of CVR in the UK drinks market is not fully reflected in the valuation and the shares continue to trade at a significant discount to the peer group.