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Panmure Morning Note 25-09-2016
25 Oct 16
Whitbread released interim results a little ahead of expectations with Revenues £1,556m (PGe £1,548m), giving underlying PBT £307.0 (PGe £301.3) and EPS of 133.9p (PGe 130.9p) with interim dividend of 29.9p (PGe 28.6p) however the outlook statement is fairly cautious and we do not expect to adjust our estimates ahead of the call. LFL sales of 2.0% was an improvement from 1.8% in Q1 but is increasingly being driven by room extensions rather than RevPAR or Costa LFL - hence is likely to be a drag on returns. UK room target is being scaled back 3,700 (from 4,000-4,500) and there is ££43.3m exceptional items relating to Premier Inn’s withdrawal from some international markets. No change to our view and we retain Hold recommendation.
Time to grab a late season holiday bargain?
22 Sep 16
Dart Group’s AGM update contained two good news messages. Trading in the first half of the current year has continued to be strong and is ahead of our forecasts. Also, in addition to the new base at Birmingham Airport announced in July, the company revealed that it was opening a base at London Stansted, which would also start operations in spring 2017. The considerable costs of setting up these two bases falls in the current financial year and the company therefore guided that reported profits are likely to be slightly behind market expectations. We think that the market has misconstrued the reasons for the forecast downgrade, leading to unwarranted share price weakness, which provides an excellent buying opportunity.
Construction delays have limited impact on value
14 Sep 16
PPHE’s 2016 interim results disappointed the market, as construction delays will affect 2016 profitability. The key point for long term investors is that, although the loss of profits and cash flow is disappointing, the business outlook for 2017 and on is unaffected, while property values are above expectations. Our forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are reduced for this and other reasons. The shares trade at a significant discount to book value as adjusted for the real value of the assets, and this value will be further boosted when the new hotels open, and we expect the discount to narrow.
29 Sep 16
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28 Sep 16
In H1 2016, the Group reported a like-for-like revenue decline of 3.9%, which was its worst performance for over a decade. Although the Concessions and Pub divisions delivered a ‘good’ performance, problems have arisen in the Leisure division, most notably with Frankie & Benny’s, but also with some of the other brands prompting management changes and a strategic review of the business.