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Breakfast Today

  • 08 Sep 16

"Equity markets globally remain in 'wait and see' mode. The overnight American and Asian markets all closed with just fractional, albeit mixed, movements as the US central bank's Beige Book, which based anecdotal feedback on economic activity collected during July and August from a dozen district banks, was seen to chant the same old lacklustre message. It noted the economy continued to expand at a modest pace and that contributors expected growth at a 'moderate' pace in the coming months, coming in tandem with a Fed Reserve report noting on Wednesday that a tight labor market and rising wages were not generating substantial inflation pressure. 'Steady as she goes' might be one interpretation, but 'clear as mud' might be another for Chair Janet Yellen who is expected to make an informed policy decision at the looming Federal Open Market Committee Meeting scheduled for 20th and 21st September. Betting right now, perhaps not surprisingly, is that rates will remain unchanged while expected data releases between now and the year-end a still expected to suggest opportunity for at least a 25bp hike, even if hawks like Jeffrey Lacker continue to bang the drum for earlier, decisive action. In the Far East, China provided the main talking point following its release of monthly export data, its traditional engine for growth, that showed a slide of 2.8% in US$-terms on last year following a 4.4% decline in July; a dull outcome, but still sufficient to beat the consensus expectations, which the Wall Street Journal polled as a 4% contraction. The ASX was the only market keen enough to make a decisive move in the region, as the commodity-led index continued to adjust to the hit on the US$ following disappointing ISM data earlier in the week, although oil futures were seen to extend gains during early morning trade following a report from the American Petroleum Institute that detailed a steep weekly draw on crude stockpiles in the US, bucking expectations of a rise and pushing prices back closer to the US$50/bbl level. Europe is in focus for macro releases this morning, with the ECB interest rate decision anticipated, along with a press conference from Mario Draghi. PM, Theresa May, is also due to meet Council President, Donald Tusk, today in London while Chancellor, Phillip Hammond, is presenting to a House of Lords Committee. Earnings figures are due form Deltex Medical (DEMG.L), Genus (GNS.L), Mattioli Woods (MTW.L) and Tower Resources (TRP.L), along with a trading statement from Dixons Carphone (DC..L). The FTSE-100 is seen opening around 8 points up this morning in relatively light volume." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst