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The Q3 21 results came in ahead of market expectations.
The outlook for Q4 is encouraging, with prices still at a high level.
The market has assessed that it will be difficult to do much better going forward, thus the negative share price reaction.
We will still increase our forecasts, at least for the current year, with an under-proportionate impact on the group’s valuation.
Companies: Aperam SA
A strong Brazil (positive seasonality and high demand) and normalising prices in Europe explain the performance, as well as safeguard measures
Shipments remained at a high level in Q2 21
Operating CF was a positive €115m despite a €118m working capital build-up, with FCF at €87m
The new share buy-back is not really a surprise despite the ongoing acquisition of ELG in Germany
We will revise numbers and valuation upwards
The Q1 21 results came in substantially above consensus
Volumes and prices have both helped almost all segments
The group will acquire ELG, which we consider as very positive
We will revise upwards our numbers and valuation
FY20 results came in above expectations
Volumes in Europe, cost control and Brazil explain these nice results
Q1 21 is expected to be even higher than the nice Q4 20
The balance sheet remains very solid, allowing for a pleasing dividend policy
Expect us to revise upwards our forecasts and price target
Q3 20 very decent thanks to volumes and cost-cutting
Q4 20 should be marginally better in terms of profits
We will fine-tune our estimates to the upside
H1 20 was obviously severely impacted by the pandemic
The group’s profitability has still remained decent thanks to cost cutting
Visibility is low but the trough seems behind
A tough EU stance on imports would help…
Q1 20 in line and decent
Q2 will obviously look tougher with volumes estimated to be down 25%
The sound financial structure is a clear plus for Aperam
We believe the group to be in a good shape to weather the storm and benefit from the recovery
FY19 a tick ahead of the street’s estimates
Profitability remains very decent in a tough context (demand, Asian imports, trade war)
Some hopes of a slow recovery could lead to even better results
The balance-sheet is very clean and shareholder return nice and unique in this business
Aperam remains our top pick in the sector
Q3 19 results were in line with market expectations.
Margins, in particular, held up well in a softer demand context.
Management expects a slightly better Q4, with a positive effect from seasonality in Europe.
The efficiency of the new EU measures remains to be seen.
We will adjust our numbers for 2020-21, since it may take a bit longer for the market to “normalise”.
H1 19 results decent, but Q2 weakish volume-wise
Q3 will be lower, partly due to seasonality
Our estimates are too high for FY19 and we will revise them downwards
No disaster at this stage but doubts on the efficiency of EU measures
The sound financial structure is a clear plus in this uncertain context
- Q1 19 results were a bit weakish at the margin level on base prices and economic environment
- EU safeguard measures not fully felt yet
- Debt not an issue, still low and up on IFRS16 and bond buy-back
- We will revise our numbers a tick down and revisit our valuation
Aperam released FY18 results. Revenues reached €4,677m (+4.4%), EBITDA €504m (-8.5%), EBIT €361m (-9.5%) and net income €286m (-10.6%). Net debt at the end of FY18 was €48m (vs a net cash of €63m at the end of FY17 and €64m in Q3). A dividend of €1.75 will be proposed (vs €1.53) as well as a new share buy-back programme of up to US$100m. The group expects Q1 19 EBITDA to be flat sequentially, with net debt remaining “at low levels”. This said, the group mentions the extremely challenging market
The Q3 18 numbers are decent but the outlook for Q4 is rather weak, with commodity prices down and the ongoing import pressure to Europe. The visibility for FY19 is still low and we will revise downwards our estimates and valuation for the stock, which is likely to be dead money until next year.
Aperam released H1 18 results. Revenues reached €2,434m (+3.6%), EBITDA €291m (-7.3%), EBIT €221m (-8.3%) and net income €165m (flat). Net debt at the end of H1 amounted to €20m (vs a net cash position of €32m in Q1, €63m in FY17 and a net debt of €206m in Q1 17). The group expects EBITDA in Q3 to decrease compared to Q2, due to the seasonality in Europe. As a reminder, the group has been reporting in euros (in US$ previously) since the beginning of FY18.
No big surprise in the Q1 18 results, the group’s numbers being in line with our expectations for the year. The acquisition of VDM (to be closed in H2 18) will strengthen the Alloys segment, although its size is still relatively small on the group’s scale. We are unlikely to change our forecasts and valuation much.
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West Newton potential flow rate analysis
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Wressle pressure analysis results
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Full year 2021 trading update
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