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The Q3 23 results were weak with the group releasing its lowest EBITDA ever. That said, this included a “triple-digit” negative inventory valuation which tempers this statement. The outlook for Q4 shows that the management does not expect a significant recovery in the very-short term, which is not surprising, particularly in Europe. The downward revision in our numbers will depend on the shape of a potential recovery in the group’s end-markets in FY24, but our target price will obviously go down
Companies: Aperam SA
AlphaValue
Aperam released a rather weak, albeit expected, set of numbers for Q223. The group describes Europe as a continent “in recession”, with falling volumes and prices. No significant improvement is expected for Q3. We will have to cut our forecasts and valuation after this release.
The Q123 results came in slightly short of expectations. This was due to destocking in Europe as well as a price/cost squeeze. Q223 should be in a similar vein and may lead us to revise our forecasts downwards (note however that we were higher than the consensus). Our target price is likely to end lower after this revision.
Aperam released an unsurprising set of (good) numbers for FY22. Energy prices, inventory valuation and cost inflation weighed on Q4 margins though (not a surprise either). The outlook calls for a normalization of the group’s markets, as had been expected. We will adjust our numbers a tick downwards, particularly for FY23 and possibly FY24.
The Q322 results were substantially lower than those of the previous quarters. This had widely been expected with pressure on both prices and volumes. No drama though, as profitability remains pretty decent. We will revise our overly-optimistic forecasts downwards. We will also reconsider our valuation metrics given the less positive momentum.
Aperam released a solid set of numbers for Q2 Despite less favourable external factors, margins were still very strong Q3 will show a softening in profitability, at a high level though We will revise our current year forecasts a tick higher with no major impact on valuation
The Q1 22 results were strong (again). The positive outlook for Q2 is reassuring. We still believe that end-markets will slow down at some stage. We will revise upwards our very conservative forecasts but will probably not change our target price much.
The FY 21 results came in slightly higher than consensus. This was driven by prices (c. +30%) and volumes (c. 10%). Energy costs not so much of an issue as long as prices hold up. The group announced a new share buy-back programme of up to €100m. It remains to be seen how long prices can hold up at current levels, but the current context is clearly still supportive. We’ll revise our numbers a tick upwards.
The Q3 21 results came in ahead of market expectations. The outlook for Q4 is encouraging, with prices still at a high level. The market has assessed that it will be difficult to do much better going forward, thus the negative share price reaction. We will still increase our forecasts, at least for the current year, with an under-proportionate impact on the group’s valuation.
A strong Brazil (positive seasonality and high demand) and normalising prices in Europe explain the performance, as well as safeguard measures Shipments remained at a high level in Q2 21 Operating CF was a positive €115m despite a €118m working capital build-up, with FCF at €87m The new share buy-back is not really a surprise despite the ongoing acquisition of ELG in Germany We will revise numbers and valuation upwards
The Q1 21 results came in substantially above consensus Volumes and prices have both helped almost all segments The group will acquire ELG, which we consider as very positive We will revise upwards our numbers and valuation
FY20 results came in above expectations Volumes in Europe, cost control and Brazil explain these nice results Q1 21 is expected to be even higher than the nice Q4 20 The balance sheet remains very solid, allowing for a pleasing dividend policy Expect us to revise upwards our forecasts and price target
Q3 20 very decent thanks to volumes and cost-cutting Q4 20 should be marginally better in terms of profits We will fine-tune our estimates to the upside
H1 20 was obviously severely impacted by the pandemic The group’s profitability has still remained decent thanks to cost cutting Visibility is low but the trough seems behind A tough EU stance on imports would help…
Q1 20 in line and decent Q2 will obviously look tougher with volumes estimated to be down 25% The sound financial structure is a clear plus for Aperam We believe the group to be in a good shape to weather the storm and benefit from the recovery
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i3 Energy has announced that it has refinanced its Trafigura straight-line amortising facility with a traditional RBL facility provided by a Canadian chartered bank. We believe that i3 Energy's shareholders stand to benefit considerably from the restructured balance sheet because it is significantly better adapted to the company's needs, in our opinion. We believe the new RBL facility will free funds for growth and provide better long-term balance sheet stability, while significantly reducing in
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
WHIreland
i3 has announced a refinancing of its C$75m Trafigura debt facility, increasing liquidity for the company to pursue further growth initiatives. i3 has also announced its end 2023 reserves update, showing significant replacement of production during the year.
Zeus Capital
Diversified Energy, Touchstone Exploration, Savannah Energy, Chariot, Plexus Holdings, Energean, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, PetroTal Corp, Ithaca Energy, Pantheon Resources, Serinus Energy, Angus Energy, Aker BP, Equinor, BlueNord ASA, Invictus Energy Source: FactSet, weekly change 18/03/24-22/03/24 Oil edged lower to settle below $81 a barrel after a stronger dollar curbed investor appetite for commodities, offsetting signs of a tighter global crude market. Refined product supplies are looking m
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Cavendish
Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.
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Canaccord Genuity
Results demonstrate Bretana cash flows that allow growth CAPEX and dividends. PetroTal has produced a solid set of 2023 results. These show the cash flow generating capability of the company’s Bretana field in Peru, which enables PetroTal to both expend growth CAPEX while also making material returns to shareholders.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
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The company's business structure is evolving and diversifying into several compelling and complementary businesses. The opportunistic, potential sale of its producing shallow assets would represent a significant change and the company's openness to realise value from that sale speaks to the company's prioritisation of shareholder interests and shareholder value creation. The current year will be significant for many of the company's growth businesses as they establish their first significant com
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Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported full year earnings with net revenue of US$197m down 12% YoY (-1% against VSA estimate) owing to lower commodity prices and modestly lower output albeit comfortably within guidance. EBITDA of US$97m was down 27% YoY marginally below our estimate as the lower top line combined with inflationary pressure. However, group COGS ex-D&A increased 8% YoY, far lower than in-country inflation. A flagged increase in taxation in Kazakhstan meant that net income was US$3
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
VSA Capital
• FY23 production, YE23 net cash and YE23 reserves and resources had been reported previously. • The FY24 production guidance of 21.5-24.5 mbbl/d with US$205-235 mm opex and US$135-155 mm capex has been re-iterated. • Current production continues to be high, with average production for the first half of March of ~23,000 bbl/d, including ~7.9 mbbl/d for Jasmine, 7.2 mbbl/d for Nong Yao, 2.9 bbl/d for Manora and 4.9 mbbl/d for Wassana. Production at Wassana is particularly high. • Valeura will als
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Auctus Advisors
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Tennyson Securities
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• YE23 2P reserves were estimated at 11.8 mmboe, including 0.7 mmboe for Canada and 4.6 mmboe non-core, leaving 6.5 mmboe for the company’s core Colombian assets. This compares with 2.1 mmbbl at YE23 plus 3.9 mmbbl for Carrizales Norte reported in September for a total of 6 mmbbl. Adding back 0.6 mmbbl (net) produced at Tapir in 2023 suggests that Arrow has added 1.1 mmbbl at its core Colombian assets since the latest reserve reports (September 2023 for Carrizales Norte and YE23 for the other a
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
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Turner Pope Investments
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