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  • 30 Jul 21
The baffling loss of profitability

The pandemic seems to have revealed all the oddities in FMC’s business model, which usually benefits from the continued inflow of new patients. Here we highlight that managerial skills could be improved here and there. And the same is true for communication and reporting. The quite strong loss in profitability could not be fully explained by the lack of government compensation for higher costs. FMC missed consensus at the EBIT level by €-11m, which does not look too meaningful to us.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 28 Jun 21
Coronavirus impact will last a bit longer

FMC’s management had spread a lot of confidence that there were signs that the worst should soon be over (see Latest of 06/05/2021), when it comes to excess mortality. Mr Powell was cited by a newspaper that the negative effect from the pandemic is now expected to last until mid-2022. FMC has not given a profit warning, but we see an increasing likelihood of one. A perfect time for this would be the presentation of the efficiency programme in autumn 2021.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 07 May 21
Additional decoupling

We see a certain decoupling, of which the one related to the COVID-19 cases of FMC patients to the global trend is very positive in our view. The reduction of transparency (Care Coordination is not reported separately), which makes it even more difficult to track reimbursement trends, seems to indicate some disconnection between investors’ and management’s ambitions. The reported figures were better than feared, but met consensus.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 24 Feb 21
The pandemic as the acid test

FMC is currently undergoing an unexpected Litmus test. Management has taken the opportunity to dig deeper into its business, striving for more resilient profitability, which seems to foil our strong view on FMC’s business model. We are still struggling with management’s performance as this have been done on a regular basis. In our view, FMC’s equity story has not really changed, but we are not that excited by the current financials nor the guidance.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 04 Feb 21
Sadly something went wrong...

Expressing our deepest sympathy to those who have lost friends and relations, the pandemic has appeared in its deadly form. FMC appeared to have the right concept to cover pandemic-related challenges, still providing >105,000 treatments per day in the first nine months. But what went wrong since then? Basically, nothing. Or rather, the pandemic took its toll. Having been quiet for two days, management gave a short presentation. In short, 2021 might become a ‘year of lost growth’.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 05 Nov 20
What a happy day

FMC is expected to benefit from the rejection of a ballot measure in California. Additionally, CMS will increase the reimbursement for Medicare patients undergoing dialysis more stronger than expected.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 29 Oct 20
Stumbling in the crisis?

Despite our strong belief in FMC’s robust business model and its ambition to help people with severe illnesses, we have the increasing impression that the company could be better run. Difficult to prove this but there seems to be a lot of talk and not much in the way of results. The disclosure is not always that good (e.g. p12 – Q3 presentation). Q3 did not meet our expectations, but beat the street.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 30 Jul 20
Unexpectedly strong North America

FMC’s Q2 figures were dominated by the strong US figures, which benefited from the governmental cheque. The normal business did well and both effects combined led to a strong set of results, beating both our own and consensus expectations. One outstanding question: what will happen if the US CARES Act is not prolonged or is replaced by another subsidy as the pandemic remains at high tide in the US.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 06 May 20
Firm as a rock?

FMC is doing quite well in the current environment. But this was due to the robust business model and not to excellent manoeuvres in a stormy sea. ON the contrary, it lowered transparency by another notch down. However, reported figures were slightly below our expectations, but beat consensus (sales: €4,422m; EBIT: €543m). The confirmation of the given guidance still excludes any COVID-19-related impact.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 20 Feb 20
The magic of Q4

FMC’s year-end profitability push came in rather unexpected. The gross profit margin moved into the right direction (down), but EBIT came in clearly above our expectations. The reasons therefore were not well explained (better performance of Care Coordination) and the set of figures provided was of no help. Nevertheless, the underlying business trend is intact.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 29 Oct 19
North America raises some question marks

Despite having reported mixed but good figures, North America, the largest segment (the company’s segment reporting is by regions), saw a strong top-line development (including the NxStage acquisition), but profitability suffered from various effects (e.g. lower revenue per treatment and higher costs per treatment). The other regions more than offset this. The Q3 figures were above our expectations as well consensus.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 30 Jul 19
Uncertainty has not gone away

FMC reported a mixed set of figures, which were impacted by various effects, of which the divestment of the Care Coordination activities was the largest. The ongoing discussions about the reconciliation of ESCO savings and faster growing costs in US weighed on profitability, which did not fully meet our expectations or those of consensus.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 11 Jul 19
Advancing in kidney care

The US government’s announcement has brought some clarity about how care might be provided in the future. As administration is involved, it still seems to be a long time before implementation. The good news is that the announcement supports FMC’s strategy to increase its share in home haemodialysis.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 02 May 19
Non-business related effects drive profitability

FMC’s Q1 profitability in the US was dampened by rising costs as reimbursements were up more moderately, but the other regions, especially EMEA and Asia-Pacific, lifted profitability, but not fully based on the business. Reported figures were not as strong as we had expected, but broadly met consensus. Despite the confirmation of guidance, management failed to include all effects in the FY guidance, which makes it not easy to read.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 20 Feb 19
A bright Q4, but no sunny 2019

FMC reported a more profitable Q4 without any restrucuring costs, which we had expected to clean up the company. The consensus was broadly met. However, 2019 will be a more challenging year due to investments in the future and the next cost-cutting programme kicking in into the one still running. The higher dividend and the share buyback programme make shareholders happy (Fresenius is the single largest one!) but leave us puzzled.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA

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  • 14 Sep 21
Strong interims, further upgrades

EKF has delivered another strong set of results, with the step change in the scale of the business firmly consolidated. H1 revenues increased 46.5% driven by an ongoing recovery in the core business and strong demand from a number of public and private sector customers for sample collection devices. The outlook remains positive and progress is being made against the new strategy set out earlier in the year. We upgrade our FY21 revenue forecasts by 7% and EBITDA by 13% noting this still implies a

Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc
  • 16 Sep 21
AGM statement points to softening in China

After the exceptional trading conditions in China last year comes the hangover. A further softening in pork prices highlighted at the July trading statement has led to conditions in China continuing to ease in Q2. Revenues YTD in that market are now significantly below management expectations and down YoY. Whilst some recovery is expected in H2, there looks to be much to do to make up the shortfall. More encouragingly, trading in the group’s other markets remains in line with expectations. We re

Companies: ECO Animal Health Group plc
  • 16 Sep 21
Positive interims, further upgrades

Momentum is building in Circassia, with the recovery from the pandemic gaining traction and actions taken by management to focus the business having a material impact on the bottom line. Having already upgraded in July, we are upgrading forecasts again today to reflect the further progress on reducing fixed costs. We now expect the group to trade close to EBITDA breakeven this year and for significantly improved profitability and cash generation from next year onwards.

Companies: Circassia Group PLC
  • 20 Sep 21
LIBERUM: SourceBio International* - New UK travel rules likely dampen accelerating test trend


Companies: SourceBio International Plc
  • 01 Sep 21
Back to skool!-“Back to life, back to reality”

Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e

Companies: AMYT BAG BVC BRSD CLG CML FBD GDWN INV MACF MNZS MIO NRR NSF NBI MATD PREM QFI RUA SCS STVG SUR SNX UPGS VAST VLS

  • 13 Sep 21
genedrive - Placing raises £6m with Open Offer up to £4.5m

genedrive has raised £6m with up to £4.5m possible via an Open Offer to launch its point-of-care (POC) antibiotic-induced hearing loss (AIHL) test in September, complete development and launch of its POC molecular COVID-19 test, and support commercialisation and further product development activities. Both new tests will utilise the Genedrive® POC instrument platform, which is a proven molecular diagnostics (MDx) platform validated by the US Department of Defense (DoD). The AIHL test could suppo

Companies: Genedrive Plc
  • 15 Sep 21
Interims show recovery, but stop-start in nature

Interims show a sharp recovery in revenues (+63% YoY) and a continued improvement into H2, albeit with the caveat that visibility remains limited in the short term. The building blocks are in place for a strong growth story, but this remains dependent on elective surgery volumes normalising over a consistent period. At the moment, the recovery is somewhat stop-start in nature, hence we cautiously reinstate FY21 estimates, but leave outer years withdrawn for now.

Companies: Surgical Innovations Group plc
  • 30 Mar 21
Small Cap Feast

MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Se

Companies: SYM CGNR EKF KBT GGP VLS TMO ECK B90 MDZ

  • 11 Jun 21
Positive AGM trading update

Trading has strengthened significantly since restrictions eased in April, especially in the UK. UK brand sales are now up 64% YTD (+18% vs 2019). Further distribution gains are being made, including in the USA and online sales have tripled, albeit off a small base. Net cash has increased to £6.6m (Dec’20, £4.9m). Risk appears to lie to the upside vs prudent forecasts. The re-rating looks well supported to us, and we look forward to the H1 update in July

Companies: Warpaint London PLC
  • 21 Jul 21
New strategy to drive growth

EKF recently unveiled a strategy for driving growth in the business over the next few years. It will be led by a refreshed executive management team and board, building on renewed strength in the core business and opportunities in developing wider contract development and manufacturing activities. Accretive bolt-on acquisitions will also be considered, all funded by the current strong net cash position of the group. Overall, the ambition is to deliver sustainable double-digit EBITDA growth into

Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc
  • 10 Aug 21
Steady growth with leading new service in prospect

Fusion showed solid FY21 revenue growth of 7% to £4.2m (vs £3.9m), particularly as client projects were delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Operating loss rose marginally from £1.1m to £1.2m (reported net profit in FY21 was distorted by a £1.7m non-cash, accounting charge). This reflects strong R&D investment in the new OptiMAL service; this is due to gain commercial revenues in FY23. Fusion should then experience narrowing losses on the trajectory to profitability. After a £3m gross capital raise

Companies: Fusion Antibodies Plc
  • 13 Sep 21
Pleasing Maiden interims; validation study on track

Maiden interim results are slightly ahead of our expectations with a better performance on cash preservation. This should be taken positively in light of the strong strategic progress in the period. The validation study of Clarava and Tuteva is on track to complete by year-end 2021 and, pending the outcome of the data in Q1 2022, be commercially launched in 2022. We have made no headline forecast changes, but the Company is well-placed to execute against our FY’21E estimates and is fully funded

Companies: Verici Dx Plc
  • 14 Sep 21
Stryker Corporation - Investment Thesis, Key Drivers, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation 9/21

Medical device companies are gradually seeing a rebound in their business after the focus of healthcare is slowly shifting from Covid-19 back to normalcy. Stryker Corporation is one of the top-most high-tech names within this domain that has performed exceptionally well on the financial front on account of the recovery in surgical volumes in the U.S. and abroad. It is worth highlighting that Stryker’s product portfolio has grown exceptionally well over the years, both organically as well as thro

Companies: Stryker Corporation (SYK:NYSE)Stryker Corporation (SYK:NYS)
  • 15 Sep 21
Doctor Care Anywhere Group - Delivering on another IPO commitment

Doctor Care Anywhere (DOC) has delivered on another IPO commitment, entering the Australian telehealth market with its acquisition of GP2U Telehealth for A$11m. The COVID-19 pandemic has created permanent structural changes in Australian healthcare, which has accelerated the adoption of telehealth, particularly for its large rural population where access to quality healthcare has historically been limited. This acquisition gives DOC a foothold in the market, where management’s experience could a

Companies: Doctor Care Anywhere Group PLC Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 sh
  • 16 Sep 21
NetScientific (NSCI) - £1m Investment in Cambridge-based investment house Martlet Capital

Following a placing in June 2021, raising gross proceeds of £7.7m, management is now leveraging the strength of the balance sheet to accelerate its growth strategy. The Martlet investment diversifies NSCI's business further with quality investments in high-growth sectors, aligned to NSCI's capital-light investment model, while providing further transactional opportunities for its subsidiary EMV Capital. The portfolio companies, and additional strategic funding partners, decrease port

Companies: NetScientific plc