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  • 24 Feb 21
The pandemic as the acid test

FMC is currently undergoing an unexpected Litmus test. Management has taken the opportunity to dig deeper into its business, striving for more resilient profitability, which seems to foil our strong view on FMC’s business model. We are still struggling with management’s performance as this have been done on a regular basis. In our view, FMC’s equity story has not really changed, but we are not that excited by the current financials nor the guidance.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 04 Feb 21
Sadly something went wrong...

Expressing our deepest sympathy to those who have lost friends and relations, the pandemic has appeared in its deadly form. FMC appeared to have the right concept to cover pandemic-related challenges, still providing >105,000 treatments per day in the first nine months. But what went wrong since then? Basically, nothing. Or rather, the pandemic took its toll. Having been quiet for two days, management gave a short presentation. In short, 2021 might become a ‘year of lost growth’.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 05 Nov 20
What a happy day

FMC is expected to benefit from the rejection of a ballot measure in California. Additionally, CMS will increase the reimbursement for Medicare patients undergoing dialysis more stronger than expected.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 29 Oct 20
Stumbling in the crisis?

Despite our strong belief in FMC’s robust business model and its ambition to help people with severe illnesses, we have the increasing impression that the company could be better run. Difficult to prove this but there seems to be a lot of talk and not much in the way of results. The disclosure is not always that good (e.g. p12 – Q3 presentation). Q3 did not meet our expectations, but beat the street.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 30 Jul 20
Unexpectedly strong North America

FMC’s Q2 figures were dominated by the strong US figures, which benefited from the governmental cheque. The normal business did well and both effects combined led to a strong set of results, beating both our own and consensus expectations. One outstanding question: what will happen if the US CARES Act is not prolonged or is replaced by another subsidy as the pandemic remains at high tide in the US.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 06 May 20
Firm as a rock?

FMC is doing quite well in the current environment. But this was due to the robust business model and not to excellent manoeuvres in a stormy sea. ON the contrary, it lowered transparency by another notch down. However, reported figures were slightly below our expectations, but beat consensus (sales: €4,422m; EBIT: €543m). The confirmation of the given guidance still excludes any COVID-19-related impact.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 20 Feb 20
The magic of Q4

FMC’s year-end profitability push came in rather unexpected. The gross profit margin moved into the right direction (down), but EBIT came in clearly above our expectations. The reasons therefore were not well explained (better performance of Care Coordination) and the set of figures provided was of no help. Nevertheless, the underlying business trend is intact.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 29 Oct 19
North America raises some question marks

Despite having reported mixed but good figures, North America, the largest segment (the company’s segment reporting is by regions), saw a strong top-line development (including the NxStage acquisition), but profitability suffered from various effects (e.g. lower revenue per treatment and higher costs per treatment). The other regions more than offset this. The Q3 figures were above our expectations as well consensus.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 30 Jul 19
Uncertainty has not gone away

FMC reported a mixed set of figures, which were impacted by various effects, of which the divestment of the Care Coordination activities was the largest. The ongoing discussions about the reconciliation of ESCO savings and faster growing costs in US weighed on profitability, which did not fully meet our expectations or those of consensus.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 11 Jul 19
Advancing in kidney care

The US government’s announcement has brought some clarity about how care might be provided in the future. As administration is involved, it still seems to be a long time before implementation. The good news is that the announcement supports FMC’s strategy to increase its share in home haemodialysis.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 02 May 19
Non-business related effects drive profitability

FMC’s Q1 profitability in the US was dampened by rising costs as reimbursements were up more moderately, but the other regions, especially EMEA and Asia-Pacific, lifted profitability, but not fully based on the business. Reported figures were not as strong as we had expected, but broadly met consensus. Despite the confirmation of guidance, management failed to include all effects in the FY guidance, which makes it not easy to read.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 20 Feb 19
A bright Q4, but no sunny 2019

FMC reported a more profitable Q4 without any restrucuring costs, which we had expected to clean up the company. The consensus was broadly met. However, 2019 will be a more challenging year due to investments in the future and the next cost-cutting programme kicking in into the one still running. The higher dividend and the share buyback programme make shareholders happy (Fresenius is the single largest one!) but leave us puzzled.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 30 Oct 18
Sluggish growth momentum expected to continue

FMC had already released preliminary numbers and today reported the full set accompanied by some additional figures, which are more irritating than helpful. However, we now have a better understanding of the fact that FMC needs some stronger refurbishment (in addition to the ongoing one) and that the economic environment is not so good and will stay difficult in 2018.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 17 Oct 18
Continued to-do ends up in a profit warning

FMC looks to be negatively impacted by several effects in Q3 and it released an ad hoc statement. The information in this, especially the tables, needs a roadmap to navigate through it. Despite the divestment of Sound Inpatient Physicians (Sound), we were already quite conservative regarding FY 2018, we will have to dive deeper as the information provided looks incomplete to us (especially the FY comparable basis).

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA
  • 31 Jul 18
Tohu-bohu in Q2

FMC’s Q2 figures are characterised by various counter effects. The stronger euro and the implementation of the new IFRS 15 standard, which caused some issues at the top-line as well as at the cost level, were offset by the one-off divestment gain of the Care Coordination activities. Stripping the latter’s effect out, profitability would have clearly suffered. The figures were below our expectations, but consensus was beaten on many levels.

Companies: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA

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  • 24 Feb 21
SP Angel Healthcare Conditions

Novacyt S.A. (NCYT.L*): R&D Update | N4 Pharma (N4P.L): Full year results

Companies: Novacyt SAS (ALNOV:PAR)N4 Pharma Plc (N4P:LON)
  • 25 Feb 21
Small Cap Feast

tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard). Has raised £13M in an oversubscribed placing. £25m mkt cap. Due 26 Feb. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc has out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Anticipated mkt cap £110m. Raising £13m in new money and vendor sale of £34.9m . Due 2nd March. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

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  • 02 Mar 21
SP Angel Healthcare Conditions- 02-03-2021

IXICO plc (IXI.L): New contract

Companies: IXICO Plc
  • 25 Feb 21
LIBERUM: Medica Group PLC* - Initiation - Faster EPS growth, higher earnings quality and underestimated optionality

Medica’s new management team has made the right investments to take advantage of surging end-market demand and incredibly tight supply. This will allow it to deliver a 20% organic EPS CAGR to 2025. Furthermore, we expect it to use its strong balance sheet for EPS accretive M&A that will diversify the business into new services and geographies. Our scenario analysis shows the potential for consistent but modest M&A to deliver a 30% upgrade to our 2025 forecast. The shares trade at a 45% peer discount but this will close as EPS delivers and M&A diversifies.

Companies: Medica Group Plc
  • 01 Mar 21
Shield Therapeutics - £25m fundraise with Open Offer up to £4.2m

Shield Therapeutics raised £25m (gross) with up to £4.2m possible via an Open Offer to provide adequate funding to launch Accrufer in the US and sufficient working capital to reach EBITDA breakeven, which is anticipated in 15-18 months. With the prospect of reaching $100m of US revenues and c.$45-50m of EBITDA in 3-4 years, the return on investment is potentially substantial. It is also underpinned by the value of royalty income from sales in Europe through Norgine and the prospect of approval and launch in China through ASK Pharma in 2023. Execution risk for what has been a largely virtual company is mitigated by the employment of a commercial team with relevant US experience to effect the US launch. We make changes to forecasts to reflect the change from a licence model (with larger US partner) to a US sales model, and introduce 2023 forecasts, which indicate adjusted pre-tax profit of £38m. Due to the additional dilution, our target price moves to 250p, underpinned by a DCF of 273p, at which level the stock would trade on a 2023 P/E and EV/EBITDA of 13.3x and 12.2x, respectively.

Companies: Shield Therapeutics Plc
  • 03 Mar 21
Allergy Therapeutics - Interims – strong underlying momentum

Allergy Therapeutics reported six-month results to 31 December highlighting the underlying momentum within the business and the operational leverage afforded by its high-margin products. Revenues increased 5% (CER) to £54.0m with pre-R&D EBIT up 19% to £20.5m, reflecting the gross margin leverage and a 1% increase in underlying overhead. Adjusted pre-tax profits (ex-£3.2m litigation payment) rose 21% to £15.7m. We leave forecasts unchanged, which assumes a substantial uplift in H2 costs (+£6.2m) compared with H1 (+£0.3m), and therefore potentially providing some upside to our forecasts. Given the balance sheet (£48.3m cash), which is sufficient to fully fund its core R&D projects, we believe the risk/reward profile is highly attractive and reiterate our 45p target price, pointing out the substantial and unwarranted discount to its nearest peer (ALK-abello - 6.9x EV/Sales). This target also excludes the value of US market entry via the Grass MATA MPL vaccine (c.12-17p) or VLP Peanut allergy vaccine (c.5-10p).

Companies: Allergy Therapeutics plc
  • 01 Mar 21
THE MONTHLY March 2021

UK railway privatisation, which was launched in the mid-1990s, has finally turned full circle: the Department of Transport has recently confirmed that its controversial railway franchise system will be scrapped. In this month's feature article, Nigel Hawkins, the Infrastructure analyst at Hardman & Co, examines the 25-year history of railway privatisation and chronicles its ups and its downs. The successes of railway privatisation, such as new rolling stock, are addressed, along with the many shortcomings, which included minimal vertical integration. With the winding up of the franchise system, the UK railway sector is effectively reverting to its former status as a nationalised industry, a shift started with the renationalisation of the collapsed Railtrack – later re-badged as Network Rail – in 2001.

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  • 01 Mar 21
First strategic partner for Coastal technology

In a notable milestone, Yourgene has signed up its first US customer for the Coastal Genomics technology. Whilst “only” worth a minimum of $1.5m over five years, the agreement is important for a number of reasons: i) it validates the commercial potential of the Coastal technology; ii) it adds to Yourgene’s growing presence in the important US market; and iii) it is with a large clinical laboratory group, initially in reproductive health, but with scope to be expanded into other applications in due course. We therefore believe it could be worth significantly more than the quoted minimum value over time. This was anticipated, hence we make no change to our forecasts at this stage, but view this agreement as validating the rationale for acquiring Coastal Genomics in August. We expect this to be the first of a number of partners for the technology, opening up another growth avenue for the group.

Companies: Yourgene Health Plc
  • 25 Feb 21
Attention turning to Chronocort®

Diurnal is a commercial-stage specialty pharmaceutical company focused on diseases of the endocrine system. Its drugs target conditions where medical need is currently unmet, with the long-term aim of building an “Adrenal Franchise”. Alkindi® is being rolled out by Diurnal throughout Europe and has been launched in the US by its commercial partner, Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON). The European and UK regulators are currently reviewing the submissions for marketing authorisation for Chronocort, with approval possible in the next month. Also, DITEST now has a clear regulatory pathway, and the development funding in place.

Companies: Diurnal Group plc
  • 02 Mar 21
Strong finish to the year; new products hold the key for the future

Benefiting from robust growth in the Injectables and Generic segments and an acceleration in sales in Europe and ROW, Hikma reported better than expected results in H2 20. The recently-approved Vascepa’s generic is likely to be a key source of growth in the coming years. Moreover, the upcoming launch of Advair Diskus should bolster growth in the mid-term. Success in cracking one of the most difficult drugs, Advair Diskus, reiterates Hikma’s generic manufacturing prowess.

Companies: Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc
  • 03 Mar 21
SP Angel Healthcare Conditions- 03-03-2021

Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals (HEMO.L): HEMO-CAR-T Update Allergy Therapeutics (AGY.L): Interim results

Companies: Allergy Therapeutics plc (AGY:LON)HemoGenyx Pharmaceuticals Plc (HEMO:LON)
  • 11 Jan 21
Small Cap Feast

Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.

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  • 05 Feb 21
THE MONTHLY February 2021

In the past two years, since Hardman & Co first started to target the IC sector, we have heard many managers of ICs and boards talk of the growth of the retail investor on their registers. Many have approached Hardman & Co for help in addressing this market, since we have a unique strength in this field relative to other providers.

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  • 24 Feb 21
Small Cap Feast

AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. Cellular Goods a UK-based provider of premium consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids announced its intention to join the main market (standard) this Spring. Target valuation £20m raising c. £8m “to finalise the development and launch of a range of the Company's premium-quality consumer products based on biosynthetic cannabinoids, which is fully compliant under UK law.” NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5 million. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Virgin Wines UK Plc recently set out their plans for an AIM IPO. Virgin Wines is a direct-to-consumer online wine retailer that sells products to retail customers in the UK through two subscription schemes and a pay-as-you-go offering. The Group also sells a range of beers and spirits and operates a B2B sales channel for corporates. Deal details TBC but media reports suggest a £100m valuation. Targeting 2nd March Admission Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

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  • 02 Mar 21
Small Cap Feast

tinyBuild— a leading video games publisher and developer with global operations. tinyBuild's strategic focus is in creating longlasting IP by partnering with video games developers, establishing a stable platform on which to build multi-game and multimedia franchises is to join AIM. Offer details TBC. Due mid-March. AMTE Power, a developer and manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells for specialist markets, announced its intention to seek admission to trading on AIM. Admission is expected to take place during March 2021. The Company intends to raise approximately £7m by way of a placing of new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company. Timing TBC. Samarkand Group Limited, the cross-border eCommerce technology and retail group opening up the world's largest market for brands and retailers, intends to IPO on the Apex Segment Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market. Admission is targeted for March 2021. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Team PLC announced their plans for an AIM IPO. Team owns Theta Enhanced Asset Management Ltd, trading as Team Asset Management. This is a Jersey-based active fund manager providing discretionary and advisory portfolio management services to private clients, trusts and charities. Assets under management were GBP291m in November, up from GBP140m in December 2019 . The Company is seeking to raise no less than £5m. The Placing will be priced on a pre-money valuation for the Company of £7m. Targeting March Admission. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance. According to media reports, Deliveroo, are expecting to release their IPO plans on 8th March. The company raised more than $180m in January with a valuation of more than $7bn.

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