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Conviction List Q4 2016
05 Oct 16
Since its inception in 2010, the Conviction List has outperformed the market in 13 of 18 periods and a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 255% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 130%. Our Conviction List returned 3.7% over the last quarter; this was set against the benchmark UK Small Companies index that returned 11.3% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our outlook for a temporary sweet spot for UK growth during the second half of 2016. The downside risk from the uncertainty of the EU Referendum result has been countered by stimulus from the Bank of England, signs of a looser fiscal stance and an 18% YoY reduction in the Sterling Exchange Rate. Compressed corporate fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.
N+1 Singer - Quantum Pharma - Fundraising and board changes
20 Oct 16
Quantum has announced it has successfully raised £15m at 34p to reduce Net Debt levels and provide the group with greater headroom and more flexibility to invest in the business. On our revised forecasts, Y/E Net Debt/EBITDA will be 1.5x, falling to 0.7x by Jan-19. At the placing price, the shares trade on a FY18 EV/EBITDA of 6.7x and a P/E of 9.7x, which we think is attractive in the context of the substantial growth opportunity from the UL2L pipeline.
25 Oct 16
"London’s blue chip index is called some 15 points higher during this morning’s opening trade, which should see the FTSE-100 test the psychologically important 7000 level once again. The US markets, whose principal indices all closed higher overnight, remain Europe’s main influence as investors track the territory’s latest round of deals and earnings. While broadly pleasing investors, technology issues continue to lead the way which resulted in the NASDAQ registering a full 1% rise on good trading volumes. Against this background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans, delivered a speech in which he predicted three US interest-rate rises before the end of 2017, while effectively suggesting that the central bank should allow its inflation target to be overshot before responding with confidence strangling hikes. Generally, however, his forecasts are not far from the current consensus, although he refused to be drawn of the timing of the first move which the markets continue to anticipate in the form of a 25bp move being delivered before the 2016 year-end. By comparison, Asia ended mixed, with the Shanghai Composite finishing unchanged as a weaker Yuan was countered by gains in resource stocks; the latter also boosted the ASX’s commodity-heavy index while a weaker Yen resulted in the Nikkei closing the session with the region’s strongest gain. No major UK macro data are due for release today, which means that traders will eyes will remain focussed on the US disclosure of consumer confidence and housing figures due this afternoon, with neither the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled lecture or the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney’s appearance before the Lord’s Committee, expected to provide significant new market-sensitive information. Earnings or trading updates are expected from Anglo American Carpetright (AAL.L), GKN (GKN.L), National Express (NEX.L) and Whitbread (WTB.L). Significant quarterly earnings also due from US majors due this afternoon include Apple and General Motors. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Panmure Morning Note 24-10-2016
24 Oct 16
Last Friday ImmuPharma announced the placing of 7.1m existing shares held by Lanstead Capital L.P. to new and existing institutional investors, alongside the placing of £1m (gross) via the issue of new ordinary shares, at a placing price of 35p via accelerated book-build. The proceeds of the new share placing are to be used for additional working capital purposes.