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We are terminating coverage of Epigenomics AG. Investors should not rely on any previous research or forecasts.
Companies: Epigenomics AG
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Epigenomics reported H1/2019 revenues of €679k, down 12% YoY and below our €1.4m estimate, due largely to a reduction in licensing revenue resulting from termination of the collaboration with Chinese partner BioChain. Importantly, the latter was partly offset by an 84% YoY increase in product revenue from Epi proColon, and we expect solid underlying growth momentum to continue throughout H2/2019E. Management adjusted FY2019 financial outlook to €2.0m - €4.0m (from €3.0m - €6.0m), due to the dela
Epigenomics reported Q1/2019 sales of €331k (7% YoY), driven largely by a 198% YoY increase in product revenue, which was in part offset by lower licensing revenue due to the recently announced termination of the collaboration with Chinese licensing partner BioChain. We expect solid underlying growth momentum to continue throughout 2019, with back-end loaded revenue generation in Q3 and Q4 fuelled by a number of commercial as well as regulatory catalysts that can unlock significant sales potenti
Having reached a number of critical milestones throughout 2018, Epigenomics reported FY2018 product sales of 0.8m (47% YoY), highlighting the company's strong underlying growth momentum. While total sales of €1.5m (-18% YoY) were slightly below our revenue expectations, largely due to a reduction in licensing revenue associated with a one-off patent sale in Q4/2017, product sales in Q4/2018 increased by 7% YoY. We are revising our sales forecasts for FY2019E and out-years as a result of the rece
Epigenomics reported solid Q3 sales of €0.5m (57% YoY) and narrowed its FY2018E revenue forecast to €1.5m - €2.5m, slightly below our estimates. We expect revenue generation to be catalysed by the variety of positive recent news flow, such as the successful CE-marking of HCCBloodTest, the latest addition to Epigenomic's growing portfolio of liquid biopsy tests, which allows for blood-based detection of liver cancer. This will add to the increasing momentum around Epi proColon with reimbursement
Epigenomic's growing portfolio of liquid biopsy tests represents strong commercial potential. The company recently announced plans for a new test in their portfolio, to CE mark its mSEPT9 blood test for liver cancer. We expect this to happen by yearend 2018E, allowing for commercialisation in Europe. We are convinced about the positive commercial outlook of Epigenomic's liquid biopsy tests due to a differentiated profile, fast readouts, a large target markets and significant health-economic impa
The financial results were slightly better than we expected with disciplined cost management in R&D and SG&A. The main value of Epigenomics lies within the health economic value of its two main tests. We feel that investors are under appreciating the significant value to healthcare systems world-wide. The reimbursement is hinging on robust data and the demonstration of real cost savings. While the concept of avoiding metastatic liver and colon cancer by testing is clear, we believe. Thus, curren
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL. Our upgrade is driven by a significant share price decline, improvement in pricing and sufficient liquid assets to prepare for commercialisation in the US. While US reimbursement decision is a binary event and represents uncertainty for this region, the health economic value of this test is of significant value to healthcare systems world-wide. We see a potential takeover attempt from existing or new investors as a possible scenario. Thus, current trading leve
The US CMS published their decision on test code and reimbursement price for Epi proColon on 22nd September. The decision means that the product is cross walked to test code 81287. The newly determined payments rates according to PAMA see the price increasing to $124 from $83, a 50% upside. This is an important milestone in the CMS reimbursement process which still needs to progress through national coverage determination following inclusion into medical guidelines. Given the need to see greater
The commercial take-off of Epi proColon is taking longer than forecast due to sluggish reimbursement and guideline progress in the US. This does not alter our fundamental view that this first ever blood-based diagnostic test for colon cancer is highly innovative and should find widespread use in time. Our forecasts have been adjusted down to take account of the slower adoption phase. The takeover offer of €7.52 per share looks acceptable and represents a reasonable premium to our target price gi
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Epigenomics (ECX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: Epigenomics AG (0QXH:LON)Epigenomics AG (ECX:ETR)
Edison
Epigenomics continues to execute on the commercial front. The US is now the main market for Epi proColon, the only FDA-approved, blood-based colorectal cancer screening test. Epi proColon US sales account for c 60% of total 9M16 revenues of €0.9m, 83% up y-o-y. The remainder come from Europe and other countries. Epigenomics recently raised c €5m in a private placement. It has five convertible notes, which mature by year-end 2016 and could raise an additional €2.6m, providing funding into 2017.
Guidance, Guidelines, Distribution and Reimbursement ("GGD&R") are on target. Q3 guidance was comforting especially at the outset of the company's first product launch; Epi proColon the first ever blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer. Recent clarification of Epi proColon's specificity and sensitivity data in JAMA and introduction in the US of the Bipartisan 2016 Colorectal Cancer Detection Act strengthen the company's ability to achieve a place in US guidelines and improve the route
Epigenomics has announced H116 results, which highlight the launch of Epi proColon in the US jointly with Polymedco, the largest distributor of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests. Epi proColon has been included in the guidelines of the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), which underscores the potential of the test as a valid screening method for CRC and recognises the need for additional screening options. The test is also now commercially available through LabCorp’s website. The co
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