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Conviction List Q4 2016
05 Oct 16
Since its inception in 2010, the Conviction List has outperformed the market in 13 of 18 periods and a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 255% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 130%. Our Conviction List returned 3.7% over the last quarter; this was set against the benchmark UK Small Companies index that returned 11.3% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our outlook for a temporary sweet spot for UK growth during the second half of 2016. The downside risk from the uncertainty of the EU Referendum result has been countered by stimulus from the Bank of England, signs of a looser fiscal stance and an 18% YoY reduction in the Sterling Exchange Rate. Compressed corporate fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities.
Consensus eps falling…falling…falling…rising 2.0
29 Apr 16
In January we screened for companies with estimates that had been declining consistently since a year previously, but which had risen in the immediately preceding three months (see our note dated 22 January 2016). We have reviewed the performance of those companies and, given the overall strength of this selection, we have re-run the screen. In the c.3 months since selection, the unweighted average rise was c.34% against a c.11% rise in the main All-Share index. From the same universe as before (some 900 companies) we find 38 companies selected by the screen. We note a number of stocks in the list where we have a supportive stance including: Devro (DVO LN, Buy), James Fisher (FSJ LN, Corporate), Mattioli Woods (MTW LN, Buy) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN, Buy).
Panmure Morning Note 17-10-2016
17 Oct 16
No change to underlying profit guidance from Pearson, with a tough underlying trading picture (particularly for North American courseware) offset by extra cost mitigations. We see something for both bulls and bears in this update. For bulls, maintained underlying guidance, forecast rises due to FX, and a 6.2% dividend yield which looks increasingly well covered. For bears, top line trading which remains significantly worse than guidance, with destocking by US retailers cited on top of existing other cyclical/regulatory/structural issues. Overall, the shares may struggle to push much higher in the near term, in our view, following a decent rally into this update.
Independent library valuation increased by 50%
30 Sep 16
Entertainment One (eOne) has had a strong first half operationally and, with a good pipeline in Television, Film and the ongoing roll-out of the Family brands internationally, is on track to deliver on its underlying full year expectations. The annual independent library valuation has been updated and has increased by approximately 50% to $1.5bn (£1.2bn), covering the greater part of eOne’s market value, leaving little in the rating for its extensive production and sales network.
A tougher Q3 16 than expected…
18 Oct 16
Reporting its 9-month trading statement, Pearson reiterated its FY16e outlook and its 2018 targets, despite currently suffering from more challenging than expected markets. Sales were down 7% underlying over the period and -3% on a reported basis. As a reminder, the FY16 guidance is for EPS of 54.5-59.5p if current exchange rates persist. The reorganisation is said to be on track, implying £320m costs in FY16e and annualised savings of c.£350m, of which £250m this year (equivalent to c.7% of FY15 opex) and £100m in FY17e.