We view SCHL's strong brand, content IP, and differentiated school distribution channels as key strengths. Current repositioning efforts in the Education Solutions businesses will require patience, in our view, with growth resuming in F2027.
Though excluded from our estimates, we believe SCHL remains on track to monetize its valuable real estate assets, with management noting strong interest from potential investment partners. Timing is uncertain, but our estimate suggests potential after-tax proceeds of roughly $380 million that could be used for debt repayment and substantial share repurchases.
We maintain our estimates that call for 2% revenue growth in F2026, due to strength across the Children's Book Group segment. Our F2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $162 million, up 11% from F2025 and within $160-$170 million guidance range, is mostly driven by expense management leading to improved profitability.
We forecast a 14% improvement in EPS in 2Q:F26 to $2.07, due to favorable Children's book results, expense management, and the November publication of Dav Pilkey's Dog Man: Big Jim Believes. Education solutions sales will be weighted toward 2H:F26, according to SCHL, as the sales pipeline builds.
SCHL maintains a healthy balance sheet and a strong free cash flow profile that can support capital allocation priorities, including sizable share buybacks. We estimate the company will reduce share count by about 8% annually.
We maintain our $35 price target, based on 16x our F2027 EPS forecast of $2.10. Our moderate risk rating balances SCHL's strong market position in children's book publishing and current restructuring initiatives.
02 Dec 2025
Forecast Book Fairs, New Dog Man Publication Drove Improved 2Q:F26 Results; Expect Expense Management To Mitigate Education Solutions Downturn; Maintain Estimates, $35 Price Target
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Forecast Book Fairs, New Dog Man Publication Drove Improved 2Q:F26 Results; Expect Expense Management To Mitigate Education Solutions Downturn; Maintain Estimates, $35 Price Target
We view SCHL's strong brand, content IP, and differentiated school distribution channels as key strengths. Current repositioning efforts in the Education Solutions businesses will require patience, in our view, with growth resuming in F2027.
Though excluded from our estimates, we believe SCHL remains on track to monetize its valuable real estate assets, with management noting strong interest from potential investment partners. Timing is uncertain, but our estimate suggests potential after-tax proceeds of roughly $380 million that could be used for debt repayment and substantial share repurchases.
We maintain our estimates that call for 2% revenue growth in F2026, due to strength across the Children's Book Group segment. Our F2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $162 million, up 11% from F2025 and within $160-$170 million guidance range, is mostly driven by expense management leading to improved profitability.
We forecast a 14% improvement in EPS in 2Q:F26 to $2.07, due to favorable Children's book results, expense management, and the November publication of Dav Pilkey's Dog Man: Big Jim Believes. Education solutions sales will be weighted toward 2H:F26, according to SCHL, as the sales pipeline builds.
SCHL maintains a healthy balance sheet and a strong free cash flow profile that can support capital allocation priorities, including sizable share buybacks. We estimate the company will reduce share count by about 8% annually.
We maintain our $35 price target, based on 16x our F2027 EPS forecast of $2.10. Our moderate risk rating balances SCHL's strong market position in children's book publishing and current restructuring initiatives.