GEO's 1Q:26 results exceeded our estimates with EPS up 107% year over year to $0.29, benefiting from contracts won in 2025 and lower than anticipated expenses.
GEO increased 2026 guidance, with revenue expected to range from $2.95-$3.10 billion (from $2.90-$3.10 billion). Adjusted EBITDA guidance is up 7% at the midpoint to a range of $525-$545 million (up from $490-$510 million). Full year EPS guidance is up to a range of $1.15-$1.25 (from $0.99-$1.07), up 17% at the midpoint. The improved margin outlook is backed by a moderate contribution from labor cost savings in 1Q:26 and in the remainer of the year.
We increase our 2026 estimates following the better than expected 1Q:26 performance, with lower expenses attributable to a slowdown in ICE facility intake, which dampened cost pressures. The Electronic Monitoring segment also saw a higher margin product mix.
GEO signaled it is in discussion with ICE regarding the potential sale of existing turnkey facilities to the agency, which could drive substantial shareholder value. We assume GEO would retain facility operations under management contracts.
Potential facility reactivations under new contracts (about 6,000 idle beds available), materially higher ISAP volume, and/or meaningful share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates.
With net leverage of 3.2x, GEO continues its share buybacks, repurchasing 3.6 million shares for $50 million in 1Q:26, with $359 million left under the current authorization.
We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.46. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.
07 May 2026
Strong 1Q:26 Results Reflect Lower Expenses, Better ISAP Mix; 2026 Guidance Increased; Raise 2026, Maintain 2027 Estimates; Asset Sales Could Drive Substantial Value; Maintain $27 Target
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Strong 1Q:26 Results Reflect Lower Expenses, Better ISAP Mix; 2026 Guidance Increased; Raise 2026, Maintain 2027 Estimates; Asset Sales Could Drive Substantial Value; Maintain $27 Target
GEO's 1Q:26 results exceeded our estimates with EPS up 107% year over year to $0.29, benefiting from contracts won in 2025 and lower than anticipated expenses.
GEO increased 2026 guidance, with revenue expected to range from $2.95-$3.10 billion (from $2.90-$3.10 billion). Adjusted EBITDA guidance is up 7% at the midpoint to a range of $525-$545 million (up from $490-$510 million). Full year EPS guidance is up to a range of $1.15-$1.25 (from $0.99-$1.07), up 17% at the midpoint. The improved margin outlook is backed by a moderate contribution from labor cost savings in 1Q:26 and in the remainer of the year.
We increase our 2026 estimates following the better than expected 1Q:26 performance, with lower expenses attributable to a slowdown in ICE facility intake, which dampened cost pressures. The Electronic Monitoring segment also saw a higher margin product mix.
GEO signaled it is in discussion with ICE regarding the potential sale of existing turnkey facilities to the agency, which could drive substantial shareholder value. We assume GEO would retain facility operations under management contracts.
Potential facility reactivations under new contracts (about 6,000 idle beds available), materially higher ISAP volume, and/or meaningful share buybacks represent potential upside catalysts to our estimates.
With net leverage of 3.2x, GEO continues its share buybacks, repurchasing 3.6 million shares for $50 million in 1Q:26, with $359 million left under the current authorization.
We maintain our $27 price target, based on 18x our 2027 EPS estimate of $1.46. Our moderate risk rating balances GEO's stable revenue profile with occupancy trends and contract risk.