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The guidance was raised due to positive one-offs. Vacancy stopped improving, thus confirming the stabilisation since December 2021.
Companies: Klepierre (LI:EPA)Klepierre SA (LI:PAR)
Klépierre addressed the thematic of consumer spending while confirming its guidance. The H2 21 recovery in occupancy stalled in Q1 22.
Due to its own positioning (more global than local), Klépierre’s recovery should be strong in H1 22, for technical reasons first: sure, a favourable base effect will help. There are still a couple of quarters before landing in full.
Business is about to normalise progressively. The rent collection rate should soon be back to its usual pre-crisis level and new rent abatements are now targeting zero.
Despite a slower recovery that one could have expected in 2020, values were resilient in H1 21. The c.4% p.a. was half the FY 20 degradation pace. Even if we question the roughly stable appraisals, the fact is that the released figures were reassuring.
Klepierre confirmed other players’ views: shoppers are back in the shops as from reopening, targeting 90% of 2019 retailers’ revenue. No strong consumption catch-up (i.e. sales above 2019 levels) was observable to date, nevertheless. Klépierre’s shopping malls should reopen in full as from mid-May.
The company’s FY 21 guidance wasn’t that aggressive in assuming a lower FFO per share. Is this because some non-recurring items could be considered as recurring?
Companies: Klepierre SA
Prior to the impact of further lockdown measures adopted in early Q4 20 across Europe, Q3 20 was stabilising vs. Q2 20. Both tenant revenues and footfall were stabilising at c.10% below their 2019 levels. The good news, however, was that rents did not collapse in Q3 20. The question remains whether this recovery will be sufficient to avoid a recap. March 2021 (annual figures, including values) will at least provide the answer.
The negative revaluation of 2.8% vs. December 2019 demonstrates a c. 6% annual pace. Valuers warned that valuation “could” adjust strongly in H2 20. Consumption was far from having fully recovered in Klépierre’s shopping malls in June 2020. Please wait.
The Q1 20 figures from the old world were unsurprisingly good with a stable revenue, lfl. As Hammerson confirmed today that Orion decided not to buy its £400m retail parks in the UK, we can assume that all other players will experience some difficulties in selling assets in the coming quarters. How will Klépierre’s balance sheet react to the crisis?
Erosion of Gross Asset Value was 1.1% in H2 19 (at constant perimeter) and 2% over FY 19. Don’t wait for a strong share price rebound but annual dividend yield looks safe (c.7%) as the retailer’s sales stand in positive territory (+1.8% for FY 19).
Except for France (36% of revenue) at +0.7% lfl, stable below inflation, the bulk of Klépierre’s tenants revenue showed an acceleration all over Europe. The key accelerations were located in Germany, Italy and Scandinavia.
Klepierre experienced a slight negative revaluation of 0.9% in its full €24bn portfolio in H1 19. The rate does not look harsh, but it could last. For now, more than some peers, the group is protected by its 3% lfl growth in rents. All in all, the NNNAV was down 3.6% in six months despite its resilient rents.
Klepierre released nice 3% organic growth in Q1 (rents). However, we focus on tenants’ sales growing by only 0.3%, well under the 0.9% FY 18 growth and the 2.5% CAGR applied by valuers to Klepierre’s mid-term rents.
FY18 underlying cash flow per share: €2.65. Guidance >€2.62.
Dividend up to €2.10 from €1.96 implying a 6.9% yield.
Assets revaluation (excluding capital gains): H1 was +1.3%, FY18 +1.5%. This reflects the first 10bp decompression in yields after years of compression, from 4.8% to 4.9% on shopping centres.
NNNAV not disclosed. NAV of €40.5 per share vs. €39.50 in H1 18 and €39.6 at the end of 2017.
Key points in Q4, tenants’ sales: France -0.3% (35% of revenue, Yellow Vests induced slowd
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The group posted a strong set of results showing faster and stronger-than-expected net interest margin expansion and no signs of a deterioration and above all anxiety on the asset quality front. It remains to be seen if the UK government will allow banks to hold on to the benefit of interest rate increases and if the UK economy proves as resilient as expected.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
Legal & General disclosed strong HY 22 results, albeit in line with the consensus’ expectations. With most of the metrics improving on a yoy and sequential basis, we believe that the strong solvency position, in an environment with (sustainable?) higher yields, should trigger capital distributions to shareholders at the year-end.
Companies: Legal & General Group Plc
Aviva unveiled a fair operating result. While, in line with the insurance industry, Aviva saw a strongly negative impact from financial assets revaluation, the solvency position improved materially, yielding additional capital distributions. Once distributions cease, we believe that Aviva could be a takeover target.
Companies: Aviva plc
Last week, the UK government published the consultation paper on its Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA). Any change potentially represents uncertainty in a market that has been wary of changes with a number of shares falling after early details of possible reforms were flagged in the press. We review the possible changes and conclude that while there is some risk, from what we can see at present the likely outcomes could be either minimal or beneficial for investors in clean energy
Companies: EQT IES DRX NESF PHE SAE
Cenkos:Duke Royalty Ltd -Record revenues keep on rolling
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
Companies: H&T Group plc
Dish of the day
No joiners today.
Leavers: No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group exports
Companies: UJO FAB HAT HZM SYM TRAC
Dish of the day
No joiners today.
No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?
Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group export
Companies: SDI FUL PURP OSI IXI BSE BRSD ATM
Great results posted by M&G, which recorded very resilient AUMs. The firm managed to outperform the consensus despite the tough environment. While the management avoided any capital plans comments, the resilient solvency position leaves great prospects while the current share buyback is still far from being completed.
Companies: M&G Plc
This quarter’s key observations
• Subsector performance: Marketplaces was by far the best performing subsector from an aggregate share price perspective (up 19.9%) vs. an average –5.2% for the other five subsectors. UK Digital Media was the worst performing subsector with a -12.4% aggregate share price move.
• Valuation trends: UK Managed Services saw the largest EV/ EBITDA derating (-2.1x) and is now on the lowest EV/Sales multiple (1.5x FY1) and second lowest average EV/EBITDA (11.3x FY1
Companies: CNIC BIG DEVO LBG OTMP SYS
NESF has boosted its effective electricity price hedging with the winning of 86W under the UK’s CfD renewable support scheme. This provides an index-linked 15-year income stream providing a strong underpinning to the fund’s earnings.
Companies: NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC (BLV:LON)SDI Group plc (SDI:LON)
Purplebricks full year results provides the detail behind its May pre-close update (i.e. 40,141 instructions; £70m revenue; £8.8m EBITDA loss and £43.2m cash) and details Purplebricks’ plan to return to operational cash generation.
Companies: Purplebricks Group Plc
We initiate full coverage on Alkemy Capital Investments plc (Alkemy). Alkemy’s 100%-owned subsidiary Tees Valley Lithium (TVL) is developing a world-class, low carbon, lithium hydroxide (LHM or LiOH) refining facility at the Wilton International Chemical Park in the Teesside Freeport, UK. Vying to be the first of its kind in the UK, the plant will process a variety of lithium feedstocks to produce a low-carbon footprint, battery-grade lithium hydroxide product suitable to supply the rapidly expa
Companies: Alkemy Capital Investments Plc