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The Q3 23 results were weak with the group releasing its lowest EBITDA ever. That said, this included a “triple-digit” negative inventory valuation which tempers this statement. The outlook for Q4 shows that the management does not expect a significant recovery in the very-short term, which is not surprising, particularly in Europe. The downward revision in our numbers will depend on the shape of a potential recovery in the group’s end-markets in FY24, but our target price will obviously go down
Companies: Aperam SA
AlphaValue
Aperam released a rather weak, albeit expected, set of numbers for Q223. The group describes Europe as a continent “in recession”, with falling volumes and prices. No significant improvement is expected for Q3. We will have to cut our forecasts and valuation after this release.
The Q123 results came in slightly short of expectations. This was due to destocking in Europe as well as a price/cost squeeze. Q223 should be in a similar vein and may lead us to revise our forecasts downwards (note however that we were higher than the consensus). Our target price is likely to end lower after this revision.
Aperam released an unsurprising set of (good) numbers for FY22. Energy prices, inventory valuation and cost inflation weighed on Q4 margins though (not a surprise either). The outlook calls for a normalization of the group’s markets, as had been expected. We will adjust our numbers a tick downwards, particularly for FY23 and possibly FY24.
The Q322 results were substantially lower than those of the previous quarters. This had widely been expected with pressure on both prices and volumes. No drama though, as profitability remains pretty decent. We will revise our overly-optimistic forecasts downwards. We will also reconsider our valuation metrics given the less positive momentum.
Aperam released a solid set of numbers for Q2 Despite less favourable external factors, margins were still very strong Q3 will show a softening in profitability, at a high level though We will revise our current year forecasts a tick higher with no major impact on valuation
The Q1 22 results were strong (again). The positive outlook for Q2 is reassuring. We still believe that end-markets will slow down at some stage. We will revise upwards our very conservative forecasts but will probably not change our target price much.
The FY 21 results came in slightly higher than consensus. This was driven by prices (c. +30%) and volumes (c. 10%). Energy costs not so much of an issue as long as prices hold up. The group announced a new share buy-back programme of up to €100m. It remains to be seen how long prices can hold up at current levels, but the current context is clearly still supportive. We’ll revise our numbers a tick upwards.
The Q3 21 results came in ahead of market expectations. The outlook for Q4 is encouraging, with prices still at a high level. The market has assessed that it will be difficult to do much better going forward, thus the negative share price reaction. We will still increase our forecasts, at least for the current year, with an under-proportionate impact on the group’s valuation.
A strong Brazil (positive seasonality and high demand) and normalising prices in Europe explain the performance, as well as safeguard measures Shipments remained at a high level in Q2 21 Operating CF was a positive €115m despite a €118m working capital build-up, with FCF at €87m The new share buy-back is not really a surprise despite the ongoing acquisition of ELG in Germany We will revise numbers and valuation upwards
The Q1 21 results came in substantially above consensus Volumes and prices have both helped almost all segments The group will acquire ELG, which we consider as very positive We will revise upwards our numbers and valuation
FY20 results came in above expectations Volumes in Europe, cost control and Brazil explain these nice results Q1 21 is expected to be even higher than the nice Q4 20 The balance sheet remains very solid, allowing for a pleasing dividend policy Expect us to revise upwards our forecasts and price target
Q3 20 very decent thanks to volumes and cost-cutting Q4 20 should be marginally better in terms of profits We will fine-tune our estimates to the upside
H1 20 was obviously severely impacted by the pandemic The group’s profitability has still remained decent thanks to cost cutting Visibility is low but the trough seems behind A tough EU stance on imports would help…
Q1 20 in line and decent Q2 will obviously look tougher with volumes estimated to be down 25% The sound financial structure is a clear plus for Aperam We believe the group to be in a good shape to weather the storm and benefit from the recovery
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Aperam S.A.. We currently have 0 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat
Companies: NextSource Materials Inc
Capital Access Group
Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Cavendish
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten
Companies: Beowulf Mining PLC
Alternative Resource Capital
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
Shore Capital
• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril
Companies: SINTANA ENERGY
Auctus Advisors
Companies: CLA STM GLN FXPO KAV GWMO CEY BHP THX EEE
SP Angel
Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.
Companies: Alien Metals Ltd
WHIreland
I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Zeus Capital
Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Companies: Ferrexpo plc
Liberum
Companies: A4N ARS ANTO RIO TYM AAZ AAL SRB EEE
Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Adriatic Metals has announced their transition from mining contractor to mining operator at Rupice. The transition is expected to continue to benefit the development and productivity rates being achieved at Rupice mine, as well as result in cost efficiencies and improved HSE standards. The company has also announced a short-term loan facility with Orion of $25m, that is drawable at the option of the company in Q3/4 this year.
Companies: Adriatic Metals Plc Shs Chess Deposit Interests Repr 1 Sh
Tamesis Partners
Trinity has announced a c28% reduction to its 2P reserves following a YE23 review. Despite the decrease in the Company’s 2P reserves, Trinity’s core business remains robust, with a reserves/production ratio of >12.5 years at YE23. Whilst there is significant potential for growth within the current portfolio, this will be difficult to unlock from the current balance sheet and we believe further financing will be required. We update our target price to 76p (from 202p), a c85% premium to the curren
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
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