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HAWAIIAN TELCOM HOLDCO INC
HAWAIIAN TELCOM HOLDCO INC
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Visible benefits from restructuring
23 Feb 17
In our view, Monitise’s H1 17 results demonstrate the benefits of management’s ongoing transformation programme. EBITDA profitability was sustained, and accompanied by cash outflow more than halving vs H1 16A. With gross cash at £27.3m, the group’s financial position remains strong. Initial FINkit sales are under “active discussion” and ongoing regulatory initiatives (CMA, PSD2) give further grounds for optimism in the outlook.
Ready to dominate TV distribution and prepared for new competition from Iliad
20 Feb 17
TI has released a good set of Q4 results: Revenues were up organically by 0.8% yoy (vs -5.2% in Q1, -4.2% in Q2 and -1.2% in Q3) while the EBITDA (excluding the negative impact of non-recurring items) has increased sharply by 5.9% yoy as in Q3 but vs a decline of 1.7% in H1! EBITDA has clearly benefited from the actions implemented in the “cost recovery plan” that started in Q2 in the Domestic Business and in Q3 in the Brazil Business. In Italy, revenues were up by 2.7% yoy (vs +1% in Q3 and -1.7% in the H1). The solid, structural recovery of Mobile revenues was confirmed, thanks both to the maintenance of market share and the stabilisation of ARPU levels. But the key point is the EBITDA which has grown by 8.4% (vs 7.9% in Q3, +6.9% in Q2 and -5.2% in Q1). Excluding non-recurring restructuring charges, EBITDA would have grown by +4.5% in 2016, with an EBITDA margin of 45.9%, up 1.9ppts on 2015. In Brazil, Q4 revenues were down organically and at constant change by only 1.7% yoy (vs -5.2% in Q3 and -14% in H1)! The main issue is that the total number of subscribers (c.63m with a market share of 26%) was still down by 4.3% vs end 2015. Note, however, that like its competitors the group has seen its prepaid customer base contract sharply in 2016, due to the adoption of a restrictive policy for the disconnection of inactive customers according to Anatel’s new criteria (the Brazilian National Telecommunications Agency). Q4 EBITDA was up by 2.8% yoy (vs +0.5% in Q3 and -10.9% in H1) with the start in Q3 of cost-cutting operations.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
A solid Q4, but cautious guidance
23 Feb 17
Q4 revenues were up organically by 2.7% yoy (at constant forex), a quite good surprise as they were stable in both Q2 and Q3. The adjusted EBITDA which had increased by 3.1% during the first 9m was also up by a strong 9.4% in Q4. Note that, in this quarter, the currency impact was still strong in South America, except in…Brazil: South American revenues, which grew organically in current currencies by 10.9% yoy in Q4, were still down by 5.2% yoy in reported terms while Brazilian revenues which were up by a modest 1.1% (as in the previous quarters) were up by 18.1% in reported terms. Note exceptional restructuring cost provisions amounting to €1.29bn in Q4 (of which €856m in Spain). Telefonica gave a cautious guidance for 2017: - Revenue should be stable vs 2016 (despite however a negative 1.2ppt impact from regulation) but with an EBITDA margin expansion of 1ppt vs 2016; - Capex/sales should be at around 16% (vs 17% in 2016). This will enable Telefonica to have the most extensive ftth network in Spain (17m premises passed) and to exceed 17m premises with fibre in Brazil, or an LTE penetration >90% in Spain and UK, >80% in Germany and >50% in Latin America. The group has also confirmed the new dividend to strengthen its balance sheet and intensify organic deleverage, maintaining, however, an attractive level of shareholder remuneration. The dividend should be €0.4 in 2016 (still a yield above the 4%) vs €0.75 in 2015. Note, concerning the deleveraging, that after the closing of the year, on 20 February Telefónica reached an agreement for the sale of up to 40% of the total share capital of Telxius to Taurus Bidco for €1,275m (€12.75 per share). The closing is subject to obtaining the corresponding regulatory approvals. After the closing of the transaction, Telefónica will maintain control over Telxius.
Ronez performing, debt facilities agreed
21 Feb 17
Confirming our view that Ronez is a high-quality maiden acquisition, SigmaRoc today announces that trading and operational performance at the verticallyintegrated aggregates business on the Channel Islands has been strong in the first few weeks of trading since the deal completed in early 2017. January sales volumes are reportedly above budget, a healthy order book is in place for the remainder of the quarter, and requisite back-office systems are being developed faster and at lower cost than initially anticipated. Furthermore, SigmaRoc has agreed terms with Santander Bank for a £2m revolving credit facility and is close to agreeing an £18m term facility – once finalized these debt facilities should see SigmaRoc sufficiently capitalized to progress initial projects in management’s pipeline of growth opportunities. We thus continue to believe that Ronez has potential to generate EBITDA to the group of at least £6m pa as efficiencies continue to be unlocked under the new independent ownership structure, providing SigmaRoc with a firm platform from which to leverage more acquisitions and/or organic investments and thus deliver further earnings growth as it progresses its niche buy-and-build strategy.