Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on MILLICOM INTL CELLULAR S A. We currently have 3 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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MILLICOM INTL CELLULAR S A
MILLICOM INTL CELLULAR S A
Growth slowdown in LatAm continues
21 Jul 16
Q2 revenue was $1.57bn and showed poor organic growth of 0.5% (with LatAm declining 0.7% and Africa increasing by 9.2%). Remember Q1 revenues were up by 2.1% yoy organically (with LatAm growing 0.7% and Africa by 11.9%). The impact of macro-economic headwinds on Millicom’s business was stronger than in the previous quarter and more noticeable in Colombia and Central America. In addition, the LatAm performance was affected by the further decline in handset sales in Colombia. Organic service revenue growth was below the outlook for 2016 (mid single-digit growth) at 2.1%, reflecting particularly continued pricing competition in the Colombian mobile market. Currency headwinds reduced, but the impact on revenue compared to the same period last year was still significant at 7%! The relative good news is that operating expenses decreased by 7.1% yoy, driven by lower corporate costs and the currency impact on the cost base, as well as the efficiency initiatives implemented in Africa. As a result, the EBITDA margin stood at 34.5% vs 33.6% a year ago. Guidance for 2016 has been revised slightly downward: revenues should grow by a low to mid single-digit (vs mid single-digit previously) but EBITDA should still grow slightly more at a mid to high single-digit.
It would be perfect if there were no worries about currencies
10 Feb 16
Q4 revenue was $1.68bn and showed organic growth of 4.4% (with LatAm growing 2.8% and Africa by 13.4%). The LatAm performance was particularly affected by the decline of handset sales in Colombia however organic service revenue grew by 5.9%. Currency headwinds continued to be strong, in particular from the Colombian peso and Paraguayan guarani, reducing revenue by 14.7% (or $274m). Note that we had already anticipated such a negative impact and that 2015 revenues stood at $6.73bn vs $6.71bn in our model. Q4 EBITDA at $492m was significantly reduced by one-off items ($60m) resulting from restructuring (in Africa) and integration charges (UNE in Colombia) and a provision on a contract in Guatemala. The Q4 adjusted EBITDA declined by 7.4% but the margin was indeed up from 32% to 32.9%. Quite a good performance, driven by the good integration of UNE in Colombia. The guidance for 2016: revenues should grow by a mid single-digit (+5% in our model) while the EBITDA should grow slightly more at a high single-digit (+6% in our model)... without accounting for the currency issues.
FX weighs on growth
21 Jul 15
Q2 revenues were up by 17.8% yoy due to UNE's integration and organic growth stood at 9% yoy, a good number, in line with our expectations and quite similar to the last quarter. Note adverse currency movements logically impacted sharply this growth: reported organic growth is indeed… a negative 1.3%. EBITDA is up by 17.2% with the margin at 32.9% (including UNE!), a figure in line with our expectations and reflecting the stabilisation of the margin at a good level (it was at 33.1% in Q1). Millicom's guidance for 2015 has been rebased to reflect the impact of the 7% devaluation in the currency basket: revenue is now expected between $6.8bn and $7.2bn ($6.9bn in our model) and EBITDA between $2.12bn and $2.26bn ($2.28bn in our model). Remember Millicom announced at the beginning of March that its Board had decided to appoint Mauricio Ramos as its new CEO. Mauricio Ramos is a Colombian nationale and was most recently President of Liberty Global's Latin American division.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
Panmure Morning Note 05-12-16
05 Dec 16
Filtronic, the designer and manufacturer of microwave electronics for the wireless telco market, has provided a solid 1H17 trading update. As seen during 1Q17, demand for its new ultra-wide band integrated antennas has been driven by its key customer. Crucially the roll-out provides a reference client and adoption from other clients should be coming in due course. Having said that, programme roll-outs tend to be lumpy in nature and management expect activity to be slowing in the early part of 2H17 until customer concentration is remedied, meaning Filtronic will be exposed to short-term fluctuations in demand.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 06-12-2016
06 Dec 16
With FY16 volume and revenue already disclosed in the pre-close, the focus in today’s prelims is on PBT (£100.3m versus our £101m) and EPS (96.8p versus our 95.4p). No special dividend triggered this year (none forecast) and DPS is held at 46.8p (N1SE: 48.0p). On end markets, recent commentary is reiterated – the core business is growing, whilst consumer electronics will be subdued in the current year (competitive capacity from Solvay). On currency, there will be a material benefit in the current year (a little more than the £14m to £15m previously indicated), and a further tailwind next year if current rates are maintained (quantum TBC). There is also an investment of £10m today in a minority interest in Magma Global, Victrex’ oil and gas mega programme partner. Although the share price is now close to our TP of 1730p, we feel that there is enough in today’s announcement to retain a positive stance on medium term opportunities with strong cashflow and a special dividend potentially to look forward to in the current year.
Strategic focus at interims
30 Nov 16
KCOM’s interims show a focus on the continuing transformation of the business in cost and investment, under a single brand. The benefit of the cash injection from the network sale has led to the opportunity for significant investment both in the Hull & East Yorkshire division and the nationwide Enterprise division, to create a platform for growth. With a reiterated commitment to a minimum 6p dividend for FY17 and FY18, ongoing cost-saving initiatives, and proof of customer enthusiasm for the integrated platform which investment will further support, KCOM continues to deliver an attractive dividend in anticipation of its return to headline growth. Target 130p reiterated.
N+1 Singer - Mobile Streams - Applying the model to India
06 Dec 16
MOS has proven its model for mobile content in a very tough market, Argentina. After monitoring and examining a number of other markets it has successfully tested India to prove its commerciality. Further to this, key agreements with telecom operators have been signed and the Company has announced a £2.2m equity raise to help fund working capital. The Indian market is vast (c25x the size of Argentina) meaning MOS has to only be slightly successful to surpass its previous record results. If MOS can build a business with similar penetration it will vastly surpass our high growth forecasts that already imply the stock is very cheap.