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NTELOS HOLDINGS CORP
NTELOS HOLDINGS CORP
12 Jan 17
The Slide Rule
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Companies: AMO APF FDEV FCRM IDEA MAI PAF PHD SCS
25 Apr 17
Fenner (FENR): Forecast upgrades follow strong interims (BUY) | Omega Diagnostics* (ODX): In-line trading update and FY18 estimates (CORP) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): Prelims pressing ahead (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Year-end trading update (CORP) | OptiBiotix* (OPTI): FY16 results in line with expectations (CORP) | Europa Oil & Gas*, (EOG): Irish seismic contractor (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Schlumberger investment (HOLD) | CityFibre* (CITY): Strategy proof point (CORP) | Connect (CNCT): Investment being made to drive growth (BUY)
Companies: FENR ODX MMX IMTK OPTI EOG SOU CFHL CNCT
10 Apr 17
BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust is considering ending the restriction on AIM investment in its portfolio. Currently, the trust is not allowed to invest more than 40% of its portfolio value in AIM-quoted companies. If the required consents and regulatory approvals are received, a resolution may be put forward at the annual general meeting in June. Vets practices owner CVS is currently the largest investment in the trust’s portfolio and wound management firm Advanced Medical Solutions is also in the top ten. The rest of the top ten are fully listed companies. The best performer in February was telematics equipment and services provider Quartix. BlackRock is considering this change at a time when the Small and Mid-Cap Investors Survey 2017 suggests that there is a positive change in attitude towards AIM. Overall, investors believe that AIM is better than it has ever been. The average size of companies continues to rise and this is taken as an indication of maturity but there is still concern about the lower end of the market. There is little pressure on AIM companies to move to the Main Market even if they are relatively large for AIM. There are currently eight companies on AIM valued at more than £1bn, accounting for around one-sixth of the total market value of AIM.
Companies: MANX INS FRAN ACSO NAH GMAA TCM
25 Apr 17
Strategy proof point
Prelims are in line with consensus expectations unchanged at the January trading update: EBITDA of £2.5m (consensus £2.4m) was delivered from revenue of £15.4m (£15.0m), including revenue growth of 140% and maiden positive EBITDA (FY15: £-2.9m). Momentum in connected premises (3,962 at FY16) and a strong backlog of contracted premises still to be connected (3,558) means the total value of unreleased future contracted revenue has built to £106m at a typical gross margin of over 90%. Growth across public sector and business sectors remains strong, while mobile network operators are keenly aware of the benefits of CityFibre's national fibre network. Regulatory uncertainty is giving way to clear opportunity, with OFCOM’s policy proposals making encouraging noises around fostering “network based competition”. CityFibre continues to deliver on its strategy, in line with expectations: target 130p reiterated.
27 Mar 17
The Joy of Techs
Enterprise-focused niche applications of tech illustrate how, while trends appear to be fluctuating away from the current poster children of fintech and the Internet of Things, in fact these developments are refining appropriate application of existing technologies.
Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CFHL ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO
27 Apr 17
Unexpected strong performance in Mobile Networks
Nokia reported Q1 revenues of €5,388m, down 6% yoy at comparable currency and down 3.8% on reported figures. The Ultra Broadband Networks segment went down by 3.5% yoy (€3,597m), with a flattish Mobile Networks (€3,096m, -0.6%) and a strongly decreasing Fixed Networks (€501m, -18.3%). IP Networks and Applications came in at €1,304m, also down yoy (-10.2%), with all sub-segments being down by double-digit but Applications & Analytics (€359m, flat yoy. As a consequence, the overall Networks business was down by 5.4% yoy. Nokia Technologies displayed a strong increase yoy (€247m, +24.7%). The adjusted gross margin came in at 40.8%, up 140bp yoy, for an IFRS gross margin of 39.5%. The adjusted EBIT margin came in at 6.3%, up 10bp yoy, for an IFRS EBIT margin of -2.4%, leading to an IFRS loss of €473m. For 2017, the company maintained a negative outlook for its addressable market, which is expected to decrease by 2.2%, as well as an operating margin of 8-10%; capex is still expected to be c. €500m, and the cost-savings target of €1.2bn in 2018 is maintained.
Companies: NOKIA OYJ
27 Apr 17
Spain now represents nearly 15% of Orange's revenues
Q1 revenues have grown organically by 0.8% yoy. This is quite a correct performance, in line with market’s expectations, and which confirms the good trend recorded in the previous quarter. Remember, revenues had increased by 0.3% during H1 16 and by 0.9% in H2 16. The great story in Spain continued apace with revenue growth of 8.5% yoy. In France, revenues were stable, the impact of roaming being offset by a clear improvement in the mobile trend while the fixed services grew by 1.6% yoy. Q1 EBITDA increased by 2% yoy. With no surprise, the group has confirmed its objective for 2017 of a higher EBITDA than in 2016 on a comparable basis (lifted by the strong commercial momentum supported by capex, and continuing efforts to transform the cost structure). As a reminder, the group will pay a dividend of €0.60 per share for 2016 and €0.65 for…2017.
25 Apr 17
Too little improvement offset by persistent weaknesses
Ericsson reported Q1 revenues of SEK46.4bn, corresponding to a decrease of 11.2% yoy on a reported basis, while on a comparable basis (comparable units and currency) the decline was 16%. Latin America (-29%), Northern (-24%) and Central (-17%) Europe witnessed sharp drops, while South-East Asia & Oceania showed some growth (+7%). Under the new reporting structure, Networks fell by 12.7% yoy (SEK34.9bn), IT & Cloud by 2.9% (SEK9.5bn) and Media by 19.6% (SEK2bn). Provisions and customer project adjustments had a one-off negative impact of SEK1.4bn. The gross margin came in at 13.9% and was massively impacted by restructuring charges (SEK1.5bn) and customer-related provisions (SEK6.7bn), leading to an adjusted gross margin of 30.5%, down 340bp yoy. Similarly, EBIT was impacted negatively by a total of SEK13.4bn of charges: SEK1.7bn of restructuring, SEK3.3bn of write-downs and SEK8.4bn of provisions; as a consequence, the adjusted EBIT margin came in at 2.3% but the reported EBIT margin at -26.6%. EPS came in at SEK-3.29. The company maintained its annual run rate target of SEK7bn for IPR Licensing (SEK10bn in 2016) and the RAN equipment market forecast at between -2% to -6% in USD; restructuring charges are now expected to reach SEK6-8bn, while renewed Managed Services contracts with reduces scope in North America will have a negative impact on Q2 and Q3 revenues, while an additional negative impact of SEK10bn by 2019 is expected due to low-performing operations in the Managed Services and Networks roll-out.
Companies: ERICSSON LM-B SHS
22 Jul 16
Northland Capital Partners Morning Report
AdEPT Telecom (ADT.L) – BUY*: Director shareholding | Edenville Energy (EDL.L) – CORP: MEM and TANESCO Site Visit
Companies: Adept Telecom Edenville Energy
03 Dec 15
Northland Capital Morning Report
Starcom (STAR.L) – CORP: Major supply agreement | Sunrise Resources (SRES.L) – SPECULATIVE BUY*: County Line update | Amino Technologies (AMO.L) – BUY: Trading update | DiamondCorp (DCP.L): Corporate update | Churchill Mining (CHL.L) – SPECUALTIVE BUY*: ICSID Arbitration update | Bilby (BILB.L): Trading update
Companies: STAR SRES AMO DCP CHL BILB
05 Apr 16
Northland Capital Partners Update Note
AdEPT continues its transition from a provider of fixed-line telephony services to an integrated communications services provider. In its April 5th Trading Update AdEPT reported strong performance for the year to March 31st 2016, indicating EBITDA of £6.10m, +33%YoY, ahead of our outlook of £5.9m; reduced net debt at £(6.2)m (previous NCP estimate £(7.0)m; and, notably, an increase in recommended year-end dividend from 3.00p/share to 3.50p/share, ahead of our outlook, to be paid in early October 2016. This takes the proposed full year dividend to 6.50p/share. Based on the medium-term outlook for AdEPT’s integrated communications offering we have raised our price target from 285p to 300p.
Companies: Adept Telecom
20 Apr 17
TEP’s trading update for the year to March 2017 highlights modest growth as expected, with a total dividend of 48p (25p final dividend) in line (49pE). FY18 forecasts are trimmed 3% at adjusted PBT level, to remain in line with FY17, with better quality customers taking all possible services – at a higher cost of acquisition but better prospective year 2 margins. With the positive outlook that a narrowing of the gap between standard variable energy tariffs and aggressively priced introductory deals has led to an encouraging upward trend in Q4 to March, prospects for restored growth in revenue (FY18) and profit (FY19) are strong. Improved incentivisation of the self employed salesforce, after a few years of lower growth, is complemented by the imminent addition of Home Insurance, adding sales momentum and increased customer interest as utility prices rise. With the double upside to the £70m tender offer in summer, and the June release of FY19 forecasts illustrating growth following greater detail available at prelims, the future is brighter for TEP. Target 1360p reiterated.
Companies: Telecom Plus
10 Nov 16
Next Fifteen Communications (NFC.L) | Lightwave RF (LWRF.L) | Young & Co’s Brewery (YNGA.L) | Mercia Technologies ( MERC.L) | Mobile Streams (MOS.L) | Mincon Group (MCON.L) | Proactis Holdings (PHD.L) | ABCAM (ABC.L) | IDOX (IDOX.L) | Condor Gold (CNR.L)
Companies: NFC YNGN MERC MOS MIO PHD ABC IDOX CNR LWRF
25 Apr 17
In Q1 17, revenues increased 4.9% to €1.06bn and excluding one-off effects revenues increased 2.5%. Gross profit improved 9% to €468.8m and the gross margin increased from 42.6% to 44.3%. EBITDA improved 1.5% to €339.5m and the EBITDA margin increased from 19.5% to 19.7%. EBIT increased 7.8% to €126.4m and the EBIT margin increased from 11.6% to 11.9%. The total number of subscribers increased by only 0.5% to 20.62m. The number of postpaid subscribers, which is the most interesting group to follow, increased 1.8% to 15.07m. ARPU of the group improved from €8.4 to €8.5 per month. In Austria, the number of postpaid customers declined by 0.4% to 3.7m and the wireless ARPU 1.6% to €15.6, which was entirely linked to the losses in roaming revenues. The fixed-line ARPL, however, rose from €28.1 to €28.3 due to strong upselling measures.
Companies: TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
20 Mar 17
Creation of a new mobile Indian leader
Vodafone will combine its subsidiary Vodafone India (excluding its 42% stake in Indus Towers) with Idea, which is listed on the Indian Stock Exchange. The implied EVs are $12.4bn for Vodafone India and $10.8bn for Idea. This is a merger of equals with joint control of the combined company between Vodafone and the Aditya Birla Group (which controls Idea), governed by a shareholders’ agreement. Vodafone will indeed own 45.1% of the combined company after transferring a stake of 4.9% to the Aditya Birla Group for $579m in cash concurrent with the completion of the merger. The Aditya Birla Group will then own 26% and has the right to acquire more shares from Vodafone under an agreed mechanism with a view to equalising the shareholdings over time. Until equalisation is achieved, the voting rights of the additional shares held by Vodafone will be restricted and votes will be exercised jointly under the terms of the shareholders’ agreement. Vodafone India will be deconsolidated by Vodafone, reducing Vodafone’s net debt by c.$8.2bn and lowering Vodafone Group’s leverage by around 0.3x the EBITDA. The transaction is expected to close during 2018, subject to the customary approvals.