Following management presentation and greater details on mid-term pipeline, we feel more positive on revenue growth prospect (CAGR sales +20% pa) but neutral on adj. EBIT given higher opex to support the pipeline. We continue to see solid upside on margin in the mid to long term thanks to operating leverage and higher share of owned IP. Given the required investment to support the pipeline (game capex), FCF will remain soft in the next 2 years and improve by FY25. We increased our sales estimates but left Adj. EBIT (company def) and valuation ranges unchanged.
Company did not guide on FY 23 but felt comfortable with consensus
Management shared a lot of details on the mid-term pipeline. Based on these information, we estimate Focus can post c.EUR180m sales in FY 22 supported by EUR50m back catalog (down YoY) and c.EUR130m from new games (A Plague Tale: Requiem, Evil West, unannounced Deck 13 project among others). Improved gross margin should more than offset higher opex leading to c.14% adj. EBIT margin (EUR26m adj. EBIT, in line with consensus). Supported by a solid line up of new games for the following years (Saber, Dontnod and Dotemu projects) and growing back catalog (fuelled by previous year new games), we expect further growth in FY 24 and FY25.
Game capex to limit FCF generation in the next two years
Given some milestone payments have been postponed from FY 22 to FY23 and increased size and number of projects, game capex will increase materially by FY 23 (from EUR35m in FY 22 to EUR60m in the coming years) limiting FCF generation. Supported by improved EBITA margin and normalization of game capex, FCF should be positive by FY 25.
Conference call main highlights
(1) Very happy with first feedback/data on TMNT (Dotemu), (2) Solid performance for Hardspace: Shipbreaker (0.5m units sold), (3) Game capex should increase materially by FY 23 to support pipeline, (4) Back catalog to be down YoY in FY 23 but ''solid'', (5) Management expects...

17 Jun 2022
Business transformation is progressing well
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Langlet Nicolas NL
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7 pages
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Business transformation is progressing well
- Published:
17 Jun 2022 -
Author:
Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
7 -
Following management presentation and greater details on mid-term pipeline, we feel more positive on revenue growth prospect (CAGR sales +20% pa) but neutral on adj. EBIT given higher opex to support the pipeline. We continue to see solid upside on margin in the mid to long term thanks to operating leverage and higher share of owned IP. Given the required investment to support the pipeline (game capex), FCF will remain soft in the next 2 years and improve by FY25. We increased our sales estimates but left Adj. EBIT (company def) and valuation ranges unchanged.
Company did not guide on FY 23 but felt comfortable with consensus
Management shared a lot of details on the mid-term pipeline. Based on these information, we estimate Focus can post c.EUR180m sales in FY 22 supported by EUR50m back catalog (down YoY) and c.EUR130m from new games (A Plague Tale: Requiem, Evil West, unannounced Deck 13 project among others). Improved gross margin should more than offset higher opex leading to c.14% adj. EBIT margin (EUR26m adj. EBIT, in line with consensus). Supported by a solid line up of new games for the following years (Saber, Dontnod and Dotemu projects) and growing back catalog (fuelled by previous year new games), we expect further growth in FY 24 and FY25.
Game capex to limit FCF generation in the next two years
Given some milestone payments have been postponed from FY 22 to FY23 and increased size and number of projects, game capex will increase materially by FY 23 (from EUR35m in FY 22 to EUR60m in the coming years) limiting FCF generation. Supported by improved EBITA margin and normalization of game capex, FCF should be positive by FY 25.
Conference call main highlights
(1) Very happy with first feedback/data on TMNT (Dotemu), (2) Solid performance for Hardspace: Shipbreaker (0.5m units sold), (3) Game capex should increase materially by FY 23 to support pipeline, (4) Back catalog to be down YoY in FY 23 but ''solid'', (5) Management expects...