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31 May 2023
AI Winners

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AI Winners
Wolters Kluwer N.V. (WKL:AMS), 0 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 2,782 | Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI:NYS), 0
- Published:
31 May 2023 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
50 -
Investor concerns on the potential disruption from Gen AI have recently put shares under pressure. We think these concerns are overdone: we see professional publishers as likely winners in the new AI paradigm, due to their high-quality, proprietary training datasets and long track record in using AI.
Proprietary training datasets to produce superior AI outcomes
Publishers'' valuable and protected datasets should help to generate more reliable AI outcomes when applied to Large Language Models. Thomson Reuters reported that GPT4 was 30% more accurate when trained on their legal datasets vs trained on public data. Benefitting from high barriers to entry, including a 30-year history in using AI, systems embedded in customers'' workflow, established distribution networks, brand value and robust balance sheets, we see the risk of disruption or competitive pressure from new entrants as limited.
Generative AI to drive stronger top-line growth and cost efficiencies
We expect top-line growth to benefit from new AI-related product launches, such as Lexis+ AI, one of the drivers behind the Relx Legal''s revised rev forecast. We lift our organic growth forecast by 1pp in FY24 and FY25 for all three names. We also expect Gen AI to trigger additional savings as publishers continue to automate labour-intensive processes in editorial, software development or customer service functions. Efficiencies should help margins and support investments in Gen AI.
Potential AI winners in the new AI paradigm
Relx and Wolters Kluwer have suffered one of their worst monthly share price performances in 10 years, as investors have been concerned about the impact of Generative AI. We think this is overdone and see these stocks as AI winners. We raise Wolters Kluwer from (=) to (+) and Thomson Reuters from (-) to (=). Relx remains our preferred play on lower valuation and likely corporate action.
Recent weakness provides entry opportunity in Relx (+) and Wolters Kluwer (raised to...