What happened? The French Prime Minister Bayrou resigned yesterday after failing the confidence vote. BNPP Exane View: Most likely political scenario is ''more of the same'' In our view, the most likely scenario is that the Les Republicans (right wing), centre and Socialist parties reach a compromise on a new Prime Minister that President Macron should propose this week. The parties agree on a 2026 budget with a less aggressive reduction of the budget deficit. Policies shift to higher taxes, especially on wealthy individuals, and less cuts to public spend. The stock market returns to the ''Running it Hot'' playbook. For more detail, see our today''s Strategy team report here. We do not see big risks to earnings for Vinci, Eiffage and Groupe ADP Taxes could increase a bit (e.g. higher corporate rate tax, higher tax rate on long-distance infrastructure concessions). Yet, the financial impact on Vinci and Eiffage may be limited in our view. We estimate that a 1% increase in corporate tax rate (e.g. from 25.8% to 26.8% in 2026) would lead to FY26 EPS down by c.1% for Vinci and c.1.5% for Eiffage. Vinci and Eiffage''s share prices have already dropped around 10% since the start of this new politics-led sell off. Also, Figure 1 shows that consensus is already expecting that corporate rate tax in 2026 won''t return to 2024 levels. Investor sentiment is unlikely to change in the very short-term.... Overwhelmingly, clients who we spoke to over the past three months preferred to avoid France-exposed stocks due to the expected political turmoil. We would not expect sentiment to turn positive in the next few weeks, given the risks of early elections and uncertainties on taxation. ...but this could be a buying opportunity, taking a long-term view. We wrote at the beginning of the year that while few things in life are certain, some things can be relied on. French political volatility every few years - check. Investor appetite for anything French slumps - check....