Summary of Q4/FY24 results Carlsberg''s Q4 LFL sales were flat (co. cons. +1.2%) with the miss driven by volumes (-1.2% vs. co. cons. -0.1%) which were weaker-than-expected across all three regions. FY LFL EBIT growth at +6.0% was a modest (+30bps) beat. FY EPS (adj. cont.) at DKK54.9 was c.5% ahead of co. cons. driven by lower finance costs and tax. FY DPS at DKK27 was in-line with expectation. For FY25e, Carlsberg expects group LFL EBIT growth of +1% to +5% (including a c.-2-3% impact from the loss of the San Miguel UK license). News We highlight that Carlsberg expects a flattish COGS/HL development in FY25 supported by deflation on barley and sugar, offset by increased inflation on aluminium, other packaging, labour and conversion costs. Earnings We revise our FY25e / FY26e / FY27e EPS by c.+2% / c.-1% / c.-1%. Investment thesis While Carlsberg is inexpensive, we see little reason for this to change given likely underwhelming growth in 2025. Rating and target price We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from DKK800 to DKK770 (primarily driven by modest reduction to our target multiple, reflecting wider sector de-rating). 15 questions for management What has surprised you most positively and negatively about the Britvic business having now completed the acquisition?