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06 Feb 2025
H125 results and 15 questions for management
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H125 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
06 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
18 -
Summary of H125 results
Pernod Ricard Q225 sales declined -2.5% with both group growth and the shape of the delivery by region broadly in-line with consensus expectation. H1 LFL EBIT declined -2.1%, ahead of company consensus (-5.5%) with the beat driven by the Americas and Asia/ROW. Group H1 EUR EBIT was broadly in-line with consensus (+50bp ahead) as the organic beat was offset by FX. H1 EPS came in -1.9% below co. cons. driven by finance costs. Pernod Ricard outlined a revised medium-term (FY27-29) financial framework in which it expects organic sales to grow +3-6% (previous framework was +4-7%) on average (with organic margin expansion) after a transition year in FY26.
News
We highlight that Pernod Ricard expects a gross impact from tariffs of c.EUR200m on EBIT, including China anti-dumping (c.EUR130-140m impact) and potential US tariffs (c.25% on Mexico/Canada, c.10% on Europe), but believes c.50% of this impact could be mitigated.
Earnings
We revise our FY25e/FY26e/FY27e EPS by c.-4% / c.-5% / c.-7%.
Investment thesis
While the stock is cheap, we see little reason for this to change near-term.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR122 to EUR107 (reflecting both our EPS revisions and reduction to our target multiple).
15 questions for management
Which market(s) are the primary drivers of the 1%-pt reduction in your expected medium-term average growth rate?