Inflation in focus for Vantage In our recent work on the European tower stocks, see (The Rule of Seven and Quality Growth - is it enough?) we argued a more cautious stance on Vantage was warranted near term due to lower inflation caps on their MSA vs Cellnex/INWIT and also near term cost pressure, leading us to forecast a more gradual margin progression towards their medium term guidance of high 50% EBITDAaL margins. Guidance for FY22 has borne out that concern, with margins expected to be ''broadly stable'' y/y - somewhat below consensus expectations. All in we expect OPEX to grow c. 4.4% y/y in FY22 and with MSA inflation just +1% in Germany/Spain this year it''s clear lease optimisation and co-location growth are needed to pick up the slack. What do we know today that we didn''t last week? Vantage FY21 net-debt came in c. EUR100m lower than guided (at 3.8x vs 4.0x) and management believe they will be able to retain c. EUR70m of the benefits, whilst the remainder is likely to reverse in working capital below RFCF in FY22. Guidance for FY22 calls for revenue of EUR995-1010m, broadly stable EBITDAaL margins (54.2%) and consolidated RFCF of EUR390-400m. Has the investment case changed? For us no Whilst there is a lot to like about Vantage Towers, near term we favour both Cellnex and INWIT for those looking for tower exposure. Why? Vantage is most exposed to a potential margin squeeze from high inflation near term, whilst they also face more concentrated binary event risks near term vs peers (our forecasts assume they do win some business from 1and1 in Germany), and their exposure to potential benefits arising from the EU Recovery Fund is lower than peers. Remain Neutral with broadly unchanged estimates and EUR27 target price Our FY22 revenue estimates fall just below the mid-point in guidance and we forecast 54.4% adj. EBITDAaL margins, leading to RFCF of c. EUR394m, just below the mid-point of the range. On our numbers Vantage trades on a...