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09 Jan 2025
Navigating through an uncertain world
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Navigating through an uncertain world
WPP Plc (WPP:LON), 294 | Publicis Groupe (PUB:EPA), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0 | Omnicom Group (OMC:NYSE), 0 | Omnicom Group Inc (OMC:NYS), 0 | Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG:NYSE), 0 | Havas NV (HAVAS:AMS), 0
- Published:
09 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
72 -
Considering macro uncertainties, the fast-evolving nature of the industry (notably due to Gen AI tools), the incoming Trump administration, and the OMC/IPG merger, 2025 could be a year of surprises for the Agencies sector. Overall, we expect operating performances to remain in line with cons. (c.+3% OSG, slight margin improvement) with sustained outperformance from Publicis and Omnicom. We upgrade IPG to O/P from U/P on deal valuation. We expect OMC''s full share bid to go through by end 2025. Despite ST integration and execution risks, our scenario analysis suggests as much as 50% upside if synergies beat and multiples expand. For 2025, we prefer Publicis (+) and OMC/IPG (+); we are Neutral on WPP and Havas on lower OSG.
Our main predictions for 2025
(1) We see challenges as well as opportunities under Trump''s 2nd term; (2) IPG/OMC deal to be finalized by end-2025 with potential dis-synergies seen in H2''25; (3) further bolt-on acquisitions likely, but no major consolidation after OMC/IPG deal; (4) organic sales trend stable at c.+3% with Publicis outperforming by c.+350bps; (5) further roll-out of Gen AI but no major disruption.
Publicis remains our preferred stock
We expect the group to post strong low double-digit adj. EBIT growth in 2025, helped by its business mix, differentiated connected media ecosystem, increasing exposure to fast-growing segments and slight margin improvement. We see upside potential via Sapient and cash return.
OMC/IPG combined market cap only reflects integration risks and no benefits
Even if we include substantial dis-synergies and integration risks, we still find significant upside for the new company given increased scale, improved identification solutions and cost synergies.
Neutral on WPP and Havas given lower OSG momentum
Both WPP''s and Havas''s performances should improve sequentially but are likely to remain below peers'' given weaker positioning and greater exposure to challenging areas and/or geographies.