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26 Apr 2024
No positive surprise this time
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No positive surprise this time
- Published:
26 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP | Faure Alexandre AF -
Pages:
10 -
No positive surprise in Q1 2024
Sopra Steria did not deliver any positive surprises with its Q1 24 sales. Total revenue came in at EUR1,587m, up +13.8% YOY including +0.3% organically at cc, in line with previous management''s message for ''stable'' growth in Q1 but below our own +1.7% LFL estimate. While the UK delivered very strongly again (+7.4% LFL), LFL growth in France (-2.6% LFL) and Banking Software (-4.1% LFL) dropped more than we anticipated.
Trough confirmed
CFO Etienne du Vignaux confirmed on the call that Q2 should see slightly better growth (BNPPE: +1.6% LFL), with a positive working day impact and consulting stabilizing (Q1 24: -7% YOY). For H2, the group remains confident that growth can accelerate by 4pp HoH thanks to easier comps in aero, NSandI ramping up in the UK, and a positive impact from working days (+2 YOY in H2 vs. flat in H1 YOY). While the reiteration that Q1 was the trough is reassuring, this nonetheless confirms that growth and margin expansion will be back-end loaded this year.
Change to our estimates
We have cut our LFL growth estimate for FY 24 from +3.6% to +3.2%, reflecting a slower start than we anticipated. This is offset by slightly higher margin expansion forecasts, leaving our EPS for 2024-25E largely unchanged.
Neutral maintained, EUR240 TP
Sopra Steria is changing for the better, as demonstrated by the recent market share gains in the UK and focus on consulting. However, we think the material growth acceleration required to achieve the FY 24 guidance is unlikely to show in the numbers before the group reports Q3 sales on 31 Oct, while the CMD will only take place mid-Dec. With few short-term catalysts ahead, we keep our Neutral rating and adjust our TP down to EUR240 (from EUR242) on lower growth.