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26 Apr 2021
Off we go
WPP Plc (WPP:LON), 294 | Television Francaise 1 SA (TFI:PAR), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0 | Metropole Television SA (MMT:PAR), 0 | MFE-MediaForEurope NV Class B (MFEB:MIL), 0 | ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM:ETR), 0 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 950 | JCDecaux SE (DEC:PAR), 0 | ITV PLC (ITV:LON), 82.7 | Stroeer SE & Co. KGaA (SAX:ETR), 0 | RTL Group S.A. (RRTL:ETR), 0 | JCDecaux SE (0MGO:LON), 0 | MFE-MediaForEurope NV Class B (0NE1:LON), 0 | Metropole Television SA (0MGL:LON), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (0FQI:LON), 0 | RTL Group S.A. (0MNC:LON), 0 | Television Francaise 1 SA (0NQT:LON), 0
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Off we go
WPP Plc (WPP:LON), 294 | Television Francaise 1 SA (TFI:PAR), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (PUB:PAR), 0 | Metropole Television SA (MMT:PAR), 0 | MFE-MediaForEurope NV Class B (MFEB:MIL), 0 | ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM:ETR), 0 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 950 | JCDecaux SE (DEC:PAR), 0 | ITV PLC (ITV:LON), 82.7 | Stroeer SE & Co. KGaA (SAX:ETR), 0 | RTL Group S.A. (RRTL:ETR), 0 | JCDecaux SE (0MGO:LON), 0 | MFE-MediaForEurope NV Class B (0NE1:LON), 0 | Metropole Television SA (0MGL:LON), 0 | Publicis Groupe SA (0FQI:LON), 0 | RTL Group S.A. (0MNC:LON), 0 | Television Francaise 1 SA (0NQT:LON), 0
- Published:
26 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Ghayor Lina LG | Maas Annick AM -
Pages:
73 -
Our discussions with stakeholders across OOH, Exhibitions and TV, supported by fresh data from our proprietary OOH and Exhibitions databases, reveal a strong mid-term outlook once the tricky post-Covid period is navigated. We upgrade INF to (+) from (=), DEC to (=) from (-) and reiterate PSM, SAX and PUB as key (+).
Rediscovering the joys of Exhibitions
Digital is here to stay, but face to face will remain the core offering. Now leaner and more agile, we see mid-term margin upside risk for the space. And though 2021 may remain wobbly, our pulse checker points to strong pent-up demand. With the downside now limited, we upgrade Informa to OP, forecasting an adj. EBITA recovery to 2019 levels by 2023 helped by a slimmer cost structure.
Digital OOH promising, but too far out to make the bet
The media channel, which saw the sharpest decline in 2020, is also expected to rebound the strongest over the next couple of years, with the recovery path depending on the market and the medium. While the digital transition will add fuel to the equity story and drive the capex trajectory, incremental programmatic DOOH remains too small for it to be a catalyst at this stage. Stroer remains an exception - our proprietary TAM assessment points to further upside.
There''s plenty to watch on TV... though not all of it is good
The surprise of the broadcasters'' positive Q4 despite tougher comps led to a surge of hype around them. However, with markets slowly reopening and supply/demand dynamics shifting we expect negative historical trends (e.g. audience fragmentation) to return. While this may be gradual, particularly given comps remain easy, we expect the medium-term bearish thesis to reassert itself in the future. Potential levers to improve the outlook include addressable TV and MandA speculation.
Play the recovery via Informa - we see c30% upside
EPS momentum, valuation track record, business model strength, revenue mix, pent-up demand and share price traction all...