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29 Apr 2025
Q125 conf. call: modest incremental positives
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Q125 conf. call: modest incremental positives
- Published:
29 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
9 -
BNPP Exane view
While there were only modest incremental points of note from the call, what we did learn was generally positive. Specifically, Carlsberg has been happy with April in Europe (going according to plan); the decline in Britvic Q1 vols is primarily explained by contract terminations / Easter timing; and replacement of lost San Miguel UK license vols is slightly ahead of plan. All said, with the YTD strength of the shares in mind, the c.-1-2% share price reaction is in-keeping with our expectation, and we don''t expect a material shift from this range today.
Highlights: QandA
. April trading: confirm things are going according to plan in April with good Easter across Europe (weather has been okay). Happy with April but looking into some bigger summer months to come.
. Pricing in WE: some pricing negotiations to conclude but most are done. No major issues to report.
. China: see continued stabilisation of the market in Q1 which has continued in April.
. China rest of year: a lot of moving parts. Last year market declined c.-4%, believe market improved in Q1 (-2-3%) but consumer sentiment has not changed with channel mix under pressure and there is the unknown from tariffs. On the positive side see easier weather comps; talk about potential stimulus and improving off-trade. Carlsberg focus will be to continue to drive market share gains as it did in Q1. Overall see a market that is slightly better than last year which Carlsberg is outperforming.
. Western Europe: good strength despite Easter timing in a number of markets esp. Poland. See that UK has strong momentum ex. SM and the beer portfolio is doing very well. Seeing very good CSD performance and plays into diversification of category mix.
. Britvic contract terminations: not giving specific number on negative impact from contract terminations but the decline in France is primarily driven by that. Pleased with the underlying performance.
. UK: the on-trade has been subdued for some...