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31 Oct 2024
Q3 24 revenue call feedback
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Q3 24 revenue call feedback
- Published:
31 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Sopra Steria Q3 revenue call just ended. The main points are:
Airbus: the company''s assumptions for the aero sector have been confirmed with no additional deterioration; management confirms the through of SOP''s activity with Airbus will be reached and Q4, and quarterly revenue run-rate with the aero maker should then stabilised at around EUR100m per quarter, confirming previous indications for Airbus to be down -10% YOY again in FY 25. Framework agreements have been extended or renewed at constant scope for the next 5 years but those are not linked to committed revenue. CEO has let the door open for a sequential rebound in quarterly activity with the account in H2 25, which we find encouraging.
Q4 24: Management expects slight organic growth decline in Q4 24 (Q3: +0.0%), driven by high comps in the UK (SSCL was up +25% YOY in Q4 23), and Solutions. The market is expected to remain stable in Q4 with similar level of activities outside of the areas affected by high comps.
FY 25: Management refrained from providing early indication for FY 25''s growth level, but CEO still expect a market in ''wait-and-see'' mode at least until H1 25.
BNPP Exane View:
The confirmation of no further deterioration in the aero sector, combined with contract extensions with Airbus suggesting market share gains are positive. Management''s comments for a sluggish IT market continuing until at least H1 25 suggests in our view +1-3% LFL growth for Sopra Steria next year, helped by the ramp-up of the NSandI contract in the UK, and a assuming a small rebound in aero in H2. That compares to consensus currently expecting +3.0% (Visible Alpha), but is probably in line with buyside expectations.