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27 Apr 2023
Q323 sales and 15 questions for management
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Q323 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
27 Apr 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
13 -
Summary of Q323 sales
A relatively weak quarter for Pernod Ricard with Q3 LFL sales declining by -2.2%, materially below co. consensus (+0.5%). The weakness was principally attributable to: i) inventory adjustments in China following a soft festive season and ii) the US (9M -1% vs. H1 +5%) which was impacted by phasing (depletions were more resilient).
News
We highlight that Pernod Ricard has seen dynamic sell-out in China in March and thus expects a very strong Q4 in China (this is also the case for the group as a whole).
Earnings
We revise our FY23e/FY24e/FY25e EPS by c.+1-2%.
Investment thesis
We see attraction in Pernod Ricard as being a relatively inexpensive way in which to get exposure to the structurally attractive spirits industry.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from EUR231 to EUR250, with the increment being principally driven by an increase in target multiple (reflecting recent sector/market re-rating).
15 questions for management
Given the easy comparative period and strong sell-out trends, should Chinese sales be spectacularly strong in Q423?