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08 Jan 2021
The January Roll-Out
Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA:AMS), 0 | Compagnie de Saint-Gobain SA (SGO:PAR), 0 | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Class B (ERIC.B:OME), 0 | BP p.l.c. (BP:LON), 496 | NatWest Group Plc (NWG:LON), 266 | TotalEnergies SE (TTE:PAR), 0 | Carrefour SA (CA:PAR), 0 | International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG:LON), 172 | CRH public limited company (CRH:LON), 6,787 | Atos SE (ATO:PAR), 0 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 2,942 | ENGIE SA. (ENGI:PAR), 0 | Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN:LON), 254 | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA:MCE), 0 | Prudential plc (PRU:LON), 752 | Vodafone Group Plc (VOD:LON), 70.0 | STMicroelectronics NV (STMPA:PAR), 0 | Kerry Group Plc Class A (KRZ:DUB), 0 | St. James's Place Plc (STJ:LON), 454 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 1,922 | ArcelorMittal SA (MT:AMS), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG:LON), 9,556 | Pennon Group Plc (PNN:LON), 653 | Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON), 726 | Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. (ITX:MCE), 0 | Credit Agricole SA (ACA:PAR), 0 | Derwent London plc (DLN:LON), 2,145 | easyJet plc (EZJ:LON), 563 | Bank of Ireland Group Plc (BIRG:LON), 917 | Neste Corporation (NESTE:HEL), 0 | Partners Group Holding AG (PGHN:SWX), 0 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 546 | Melrose Industries PLC (MRO:LON), 675 | Adevinta ASA (ADE:OSL), 0 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 352
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The January Roll-Out
Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA:AMS), 0 | Compagnie de Saint-Gobain SA (SGO:PAR), 0 | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Class B (ERIC.B:OME), 0 | BP p.l.c. (BP:LON), 496 | NatWest Group Plc (NWG:LON), 266 | TotalEnergies SE (TTE:PAR), 0 | Carrefour SA (CA:PAR), 0 | International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (IAG:LON), 172 | CRH public limited company (CRH:LON), 6,787 | Atos SE (ATO:PAR), 0 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 2,942 | ENGIE SA. (ENGI:PAR), 0 | Legal & General Group Plc (LGEN:LON), 254 | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA:MCE), 0 | Prudential plc (PRU:LON), 752 | Vodafone Group Plc (VOD:LON), 70.0 | STMicroelectronics NV (STMPA:PAR), 0 | Kerry Group Plc Class A (KRZ:DUB), 0 | St. James's Place Plc (STJ:LON), 454 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 1,922 | ArcelorMittal SA (MT:AMS), 0 | Airbus SE (AIR:PAR), 0 | London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG:LON), 9,556 | Pennon Group Plc (PNN:LON), 653 | Travis Perkins plc (TPK:LON), 726 | Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. (ITX:MCE), 0 | Credit Agricole SA (ACA:PAR), 0 | Derwent London plc (DLN:LON), 2,145 | easyJet plc (EZJ:LON), 563 | Bank of Ireland Group Plc (BIRG:LON), 917 | Neste Corporation (NESTE:HEL), 0 | Partners Group Holding AG (PGHN:SWX), 0 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 546 | Melrose Industries PLC (MRO:LON), 675 | Adevinta ASA (ADE:OSL), 0 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 352
- Published:
08 Jan 2021 -
Author:
Gaudelier Jeremy JG | Avory Hannah HA -
Pages:
10
A less Covid afflicted world in 2021
A Brexit Deal, $900bn US stimulus, and now a Democrat controlled Congress, explain how Global Equities have been propelled to new highs. Hereon the focus should shift back to COVID. If the vaccine roll-outs are effective, we see upside risks to yields and EPS estimates. We share more detail in our 2021 Outlook presentation.
Economic recovery still expected after a Q1 dip
Tighter and longer restrictions to fight Covid-19, including school closures, represent another downside risk to short term growth in major developed economies. Nevertheless, policy support is still being ramped up and provided that the vaccination process is effective, a stronger than expected rebound should follow from Q2, extending into 2022.
Who came out on top in 2020?
The Deep Value, Key Ideas and UK High Conviction lists performed well in 2020, beating their respective benchmarks by at least 8% across the board, with Deep Value and UK High Conviction lists ending with a strong Q4 in particular as a result of the shift to Value names and positive Brexit outcome. Emerging Consumer and MandA lists were roughly in line with benchmarks during the year.
Moving our lists from 2020 to 2021
We keep a strong exposure to a continued cyclical recovery. In our view, this will remain the largest driver of performance in the near term, as upside risk to rates and EPS estimates should drive a strong Value and Cyclicals rally. For this reason we do not change the core holdings in our lists but we do add Basic Resources and Banks to our Key Ideas and UK High Conviction lists.
Changes to the lists:
Deep Value List: OUT - ArcelorMittal
Key Ideas: IN - ArcelorMittal, Credit Suisse; OUT - Kerry Group
UK High Conviction: IN - Anglo American; OUT - Pennon