What happened?
We have received the latest NABCA Spirits industry data, which measures on and off-trade Spirits sales in 17 control states in the US. Control jurisdictions represent c.25% of the US Spirits market. Our key takeaways for the month of June 2025 are below. Please let us know if you would like to see out NABCA database.
BNPP Exane View:
Industry perspective: control states
On a reported basis, spirits industry volumes declined by -2.3% in the control states in June. On a selling day adjusted basis, we estimate June spirits industry volumes in the control states declined by -2.4%, a modest slowdown from May (-1.6%), leading to Q225 selling-day adjusted volume declines of -1.5% (vs. Q125 -2.1%, Q424 +0.5%).
Excluding Cocktails (+12% in June), we estimate core spirits industry volumes declined -3.7% on a selling-day adjusted basis in the month, broadly in-line with May trends (-3.9%), leading to overall Q225 adj. core spirits volumes of -3.2% (vs. Q1 -3.6%, Q4 -1.4%).
Note: Overall, we estimate there was a +0.1% positive selling day impact YOY across the control states in June.
We have not yet received the price / mix figures for June from NABCA.
Company perspective
Disclaimer: The company data is based upon reported volumes (incl. Cocktails) and this reflects calendar anomalies.
Disclaimer made, Diageo reported volumes declined by -5.9% in June. We note that Diageo saw declining trends in reported volumes across all categories with the exception of Cordials (+0.9%), and most notably, saw declining trends in Tequila (-3.4% vs. category +0.7%), the first negative month since our category-level records began in 2020.
Pernod Ricard volumes declined by -4.6% on a reported basis in June. By category, similarly to Diageo, all of Pernod''s sub-categories (ex. Cordials) saw reported...
