This content is only available within our institutional offering.
29 Aug 2019
Investec - Pernod Ricard (Momentum to slow, but cash return offsets
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Investec - Pernod Ricard (Momentum to slow, but cash return offsets
- Published:
29 Aug 2019 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
Results in-line, outlook a slight disappointment
6% organic sales growth in FY19 is essentially in line with consensus (for +5.7%), and 8.7% organic profit growth is ahead (consensus +8.0%). Asia (+12%) drove the growth, with China +21% and India +20%, while Americas +2% and Europe +1% were considerably slower. Net profit from recurring operations is just shy of consensus. The outlook could be considered slightly disappointing: 5-7% organic profit growth in FY20, while consensus looks for +8.2%. However, the announcement of a €1bn buyback over FY20-21 could offset this somewhat; at the current market cap the buyback represents 2.3% EPS accretion over the 2 years. In addition to the buyback, management clarified the financial policy, which includes more investment in capex and M&A, as well as a 50% dividend payout ratio. The FY19 DPS is €3.12, up 32% yoy. Net debt/EBITDA was 2.3x, down from 2.6x a year ago.
Expanding in North America
Yesterday Pernod announced the acquisition of Castle Brands (EV c. $275m, 2.8x sales), a US spirits company with a small premium portfolio of brands including Jefferson’s bourbon. This underscores Pernod’s interest in US whiskey, and follows a series of smaller acquisitions in the segment over the past two years.
Bringing awareness to Chinese whiskey
Today Pernod breaks ground on a new Chinese single malt whiskey distillery that is due to begin production in 2021. This will be the first Chinese whiskey distillery owned by an international spirits company, and Pernod will be appointing the first ever Chinese master distiller. Japanese whiskey has enjoyed international attention with a recent upsurge in demand globally, and it is no surprise that Chinese whiskey is a focus for Pernod (China being one of its top markets).
Board changes
Pernod also announced the appointment of 2 new independent directors to the Board. Pierre Pringuet, the former CEO of Pernod from 2008-2015, will step down.