We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Vera Bradley ahead of 2QF25 (July) earnings on Wednesday, but taking a materially more conservative outlook on the pace of the company's New Day initiative to drive material top and bottom line upside. While we believe the somewhat
incremental shifts to the outlet stores are potentially a near-term positive, the complete remake of the main line locations, while we believe a potential positive in the long run, has somewhat shocked the core Vera Bradley customer and, we believe, resulted in a near-term negative, during the heart of the critical back-to-school/campus season. Further, in resetting the entire main line store, the company has aggressively discounted prior looks to clear goods, which, we believe, has led to deeper than initially projected gross margin declines. As such, we are reducing our FY25 and FY26 projections. That said, we believe the main line shifts will eventually attract a younger customer base and position the chain for a revival; as such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $10 price target, or 9.3X our new FY26 EBITDA projection.
04 Sep 2024
VRA: 2Q Preview: Shocking the System Right Move, But NT Impacted; Reiterate Buy
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VRA: 2Q Preview: Shocking the System Right Move, But NT Impacted; Reiterate Buy
Tapestry Inc (TPR:NYSE), 0 | Tapestry, Inc. (TPR:NYS), 0 | VERA BRADLEY (VRA:NYSE), 0 | Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA:NAS), 0
- Published:
04 Sep 2024 -
Author:
Eric Beder -
Pages:
4
We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Vera Bradley ahead of 2QF25 (July) earnings on Wednesday, but taking a materially more conservative outlook on the pace of the company's New Day initiative to drive material top and bottom line upside. While we believe the somewhat
incremental shifts to the outlet stores are potentially a near-term positive, the complete remake of the main line locations, while we believe a potential positive in the long run, has somewhat shocked the core Vera Bradley customer and, we believe, resulted in a near-term negative, during the heart of the critical back-to-school/campus season. Further, in resetting the entire main line store, the company has aggressively discounted prior looks to clear goods, which, we believe, has led to deeper than initially projected gross margin declines. As such, we are reducing our FY25 and FY26 projections. That said, we believe the main line shifts will eventually attract a younger customer base and position the chain for a revival; as such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $10 price target, or 9.3X our new FY26 EBITDA projection.