|Name||Price||Mkt Cap||52 Week||QTD (%)||YTD (%)|
|Upgrade to view||138||840.8m||71.1 - 248||70.8||18.6|
|Upgrade to view||98.8||51.6m||74.0 - 153||-2.1||-2.1|
|Upgrade to view||4,252||5,704m||3,093 - 4,282||12.2||2.8|
|Upgrade to view||102||51.3m||80.5 - 136||22.0||-18.6|
|Upgrade to view||3,762||86,299m||3,650 - 5,643||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||520||109.8m||385 - 540||8.9||20.1|
|Upgrade to view||56.2||139.2m||54.5 - 129||0.4||-44.3|
|Upgrade to view||470||499.6m||420 - 488||-1.0||-1.0|
|Upgrade to view||536||758.7m||490 - 652||4.3||-6.9|
|Upgrade to view||81.0||127.2m||72.5 - 158||2.5||2.5|
|Upgrade to view||62.5||5.76m||52.0 - 71.0||-1.6||-1.6|
|Upgrade to view||119||390.0m||64.0 - 120||0.0||45.6|
|Upgrade to view||60.0||114.1m||41.5 - 77.5||-12.4||-2.4|
|Upgrade to view||255||262.1m||213 - 289||13.8||-3.9|
|Upgrade to view||120||15.3m||96.5 - 124||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||1,504||672.8m||1,118 - 1,512||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||27.0||14.4m||20.0 - 103||25.6||-39.3|
|Upgrade to view||123||56.9m||122 - 198||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||204||77.8m||186 - 273||-12.8||-17.7|
|Upgrade to view||70.5||13.0m||56.5 - 90.5||0.0||-4.7|
|Upgrade to view||13.8||14.1m||7.6 - 14.8||17.0||27.9|
|Upgrade to view||936||638.2m||791 - 1,004||17.3||1.3|
|Upgrade to view||77.5||9.13m||75.0 - 110||-1.3||-14.8|
|Upgrade to view||338||6,234m||256 - 339||27.0||8.5|
|Upgrade to view||13.8||16.7m||13.0 - 27.5||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||31.5||6.15m||27.5 - 40.5||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||1,004||279.6m||888 - 1,450||7.4||5.7|
|Upgrade to view||3.5||3.99m||3.5 - 5.6||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||61.0||36.2m||34.5 - 61.9||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||305||38.0m||300 - 1,015||1.7||-20.8|
|Upgrade to view||87.3||36.5m||70.5 - 93.2||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||14.8||12.5m||4.5 - 32.5||20.4||-49.6|
|Upgrade to view||0.9||3.06m||0.5 - 1.2||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||48.0||40.5m||39.5 - 50.5||14.3||19.1|
|Upgrade to view||24.0||67.8m||9.6 - 27.4||4.3||4.3|
|Upgrade to view||8.4||6.82m||7.6 - 11.9||-2.9||-9.4|
|Upgrade to view||276||342.8m||195 - 308||24.9||15.2|
|Upgrade to view||3,150||2,291m||1,927 - 3,716||-3.2||-2.6|15 May 18
Opening up a significant market
The Supreme Court of the USA (SCOTUS) yesterday voted 7-2 in favour of repealing the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992. Seven justices voted in favour of repealing with the court quoting: “Congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each State is free to act on its own. Our job is to interpret the law Congress has enacted and decide whether it is consistent with the Constitution. PASPA is not. PASPA “regulate[s] state governments’ regulation” of their citizens, New York, 505 U. S., at 166. The Constitution gives Congress no such power. The judgment of the Third Circuit is reversed.”
Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC
16 May 18
£2 FOBT limit and self-help estimates
A £2 max stake, is a worst-case scenario for operators with betting shops, we estimate (table 1, p2) it will reduce operators’ revenues and profits significantly, though these estimates exclude any self-help initiatives available to management teams, such as shop closures, automation (SSBTs) and further omnichannel rollout to mitigate the impact of lower B2 limits. Furthermore, we estimate increasing POC tax from 15% to 20% for online (table 3, p4), would offset the taxes lost on FOBTs for the Treasury and help fund losses to the horse racing industry, the latter likely to be affected by the lower B2 limits. The increased POC tax would likely lead to further consolidation in a highly fragmented UK online market.
Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC
15 May 18
Acquisition of eMenka NV
Harvey Nash has announced the acquisition of Belgian IT solutions company eMenka, a focused provider of Microsoft specialists on both a contracted and permanent basis. The deal is a good strategic fit for the Group’s existing Belgian operations and cements Harvey Nash’s market leading position in this specific skills niche. eMenka is the Group’s third acquisition in the last year, following the purchase of Swedish HR consultancy PAT Management AB in July 2017 and UK technology talent provider Crimson last September, and proves management are delivering on the acquisition strategy that motivated their move to AIM last June. The shares have performed strongly over the last 12 months, up 34% YOY but still offer an attractive entry point to a business that is delivering against its stated objectives, supported by a solid balance sheet with FY19 net debt/EBITDA of just 0.1x. The shares trade on an FY19 PE of 7.5x offering an attractive 4.4% yield.
Companies: Harvey Nash Group
21 May 18
Allenby Capital HCM Update 21.05.18 (HVN.L; NBB.L; STAF.L)
Harvey Nash Group plc (HVN.L, 103p/£75.8m) Acquisition | Norman Broadbent plc (NBB.L, 11p/£5.8m) Final results to 31 December 2017 | Staffline Group plc (STAF.L, 970p/£270m) AGM Statement
Companies: HVN NBB STAF
02 May 18
Prior to the financial crisis of 2008/09, it was widely believed in the stock market that certain sectors – most notably utilities, pharmaceuticals, food retailing and tobacco – were far less vulnerable to market downturns.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
22 Mar 18
Sopheon has delivered a very strong 2017 – in line with the previous trading updates, and benefiting from a very good end to the year. The group is ahead of our estimates on all metrics, and is well placed going into 2018 and beyond. Management have signalled their confidence with the welcome introduction of a maiden dividend (2.5p). We upgrade our estimates for both 2018 and 2019.
10 May 18
2% FY 19 PBT Guidance upgrade
Overall Next has benefited from weak comparatives as anticipated plus some late period weather effects which have combined to allow full-year PBT guidance to be raised by 2%. The numbers highlight the structural issues facing both Next and UK Retail in total. While the online Full Price sales growth of 18.1% was much better than we expected (+12%) Retail (the shops) were down 4.8% against a very weak comparative of -8.1% despite the weather boost.
10 May 18
Acceleration in Q1
Next has released great acceleration in Q1 and has upgraded its full-year guidance. Full-price sales increased by 6% and full-year sales are expected to grow by 2.2%.
17 May 18
LIBERUM: Staffline* - AGM guides to in line but upside pressure mounting
AGM statement guides to in line and we leave estimates unchanged, with potential for upgrades later on. We continue to expect net debt of £20.4m in FY 2018.
Companies: Staffline Group
21 May 18
AAMS signs off on SNAI deal
PTEC this morning announces that it has received consent from Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (AAMS), the Italian regulator regarding the acquisition of SNAI and as result the Initial acquisition of c. 70.6% of SNAI will complete in June as opposed to the 3Q18 as originally intended.
09 Apr 18
UK Housebuilding Sector
This ominous-sounding term originated from the work of famed Swedish meteorologist, Tor Bergeron (1897-1977), but it only entered popular vernacular this year – and there have been ample opportunities in 2018 to use it.
Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG
22 May 18
2017/18 Prelims Reaction
HFD has achieved Underlying PBT of £71.6m against a (companycompiled) consensus of £71.2m (2016/17 £75.4m -4% yoy). Comments on guidance for 2018/19 suggest that pre-existing consensus PBT of £76.5m will fall to a broadly flat out-turn principally because of price resistance in cycles and further investment in service.
Companies: Halfords Group
27 Mar 18
High quality focus paying dividends
T Clarke achieved good growth in revenue, profits and cash generation in FY17, working on some of the very highest profile projects. It was also a year of investment in technology (Eton Associates) and new capacity. In the current climate, management’s disciplined approach to tendering is serving the business well and margins have strengthened in most regions. A new 3% operating margin target has been announced, which looks very achievable (FY17: 2.3%). While revenue is likely to moderate, profits are expected to increase by 8% and then 7% over the next two years. In our view, this is a very well managed business with a focus on quality that is not reflected in the current rating (6.0x P/E, 5.2x EV/EBITDA, 4.6% yield). We see intrinsic value at 106p, based on a blended average of peer group multiples.
10 Apr 18
We look at Directory/Online relative under-performance in the UK online clothing market and consider the implications for future recruitment behaviour. Next continues to run this business to maximise returns from existing customers. With its Retail business going backwards rapidly and an already-high EBIT margin in ND/NO Next needs to change its behaviour in terms of growing its sales base more rapidly online in our opinion. We are not sure this will happen. We retain our sell rating.
01 Apr 18
Two former AIM companies could be in the FTSE 100 index in the near future following the successful bids by Melrose Industries for GKN and GVC for Ladbrokes Coral. Melrose has been on the brink of the FTSE 100 for a while and if a constituent company of the FTSE 100 is acquired than it can be replaced by the acquirer when it is eligible. Melrose is already on the reserve list for inclusion in the FTSE 100, following the March 2018 quarterly review.
Companies: PTSG JDG TRCS SRB TAP KETL
27 Dec 17
Highlights 2017: Hays plc - Investor day highlights
14 Mar 18
Empresaria Group plc (EMR) Full year results 2017
10 May 18
Stobart Group (STOB) Full year results to 28th February 2018
05 Mar 18
Helaine Kang discusses Sanderson Group PLC
03 Apr 18
Somero (SOM) Results presentation March 2018
06 Dec 17
The Mission Marketing Group sponsors of The Good Web Guide Website of the Year Awards 2017
23 Mar 18
Final Results 12 months to July 2017
22 Nov 17
Capital Network's Ed Stacey discusses Empresaria Group Plc
10 Apr 18
The Mission Marketing Group - 2017 Results: Executive Chairman’s video
17 Nov 17
Hays plc - Investor day highlights
21 Feb 18
121 Mining, Cape Town - Central Asia Metals
15 Nov 17
Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN) at Sharesoc growth seminar November 2017
07 Dec 17
Capital Network's Ed Stacey on Morgan Sindall Group PLC
02 Nov 17
The Mission Marketing Group: Fuse - An Introduction
14 Jun 17
Somero (SOM) Invester presentation June 2017
Trinity Exploration & Production
Trinity released its FY17 results this morning. Most of the key financials had already been announced in its March trading statement, and 2018 guidance remains unchanged. However, we increase our RENAV from 33p to 35p to reflect strong onshore reserves growth. We remain with our BUY recommendation given the potential for certain overhangs to be removed in 2018 and more confidence around cash flow given strong oil prices YTD.
10 May 18
Interims - The right stuff
Interim results from The Character Group (CCT.L), the UK’s leading independent toy company, reflect a good performance against a tough retail backdrop that has seen its larger rivals (including Hasbro, Mattel and Lego) suffer. This reflects the success of Character’s strategy of offering price-competitive products that are not aligned to any particular film franchise coupled with a number of ‘ever-green’ brands (including Peppa Pig, Little Live Pets, Scooby Doo and Stretch Armstrong). Character is also riding the wave of lower priced ‘craze’ products successfully with four of its new Spring lines – Soft and Slo memory foam toys, Cake Pop Cuties, Cra-z-Slimy and Mine It – all doing well. 2018 has started well domestically and, given the higher gross margins available on domestic sales, we upgrade FY18 EPS forecasts by 13.8% to 43.6p and FY19 by 11.2% to 50.5p. CCT continues to enjoy a strong balance sheet that provides scope for share repurchases and a progressive dividend policy. We maintain a fair value of 580p/share, equivalent to a FY18 PER of 13.3x and 4.0% yield.
25 Apr 18
Q1 growth - downplayed by natural forces
Rentokil reported a Q1 18 trading update which was below our estimate as well as the market consensus. Q1 performance was downplayed by natural forces, such as: 1) the negative impact of last September’s hurricane in Puerto Rico (~0.5ppt), and 2) unseasonably cold weather in the US in the month of March. Segment-wise, both Pest Control and Hygiene recorded positive growth, marginally offset by a sluggish Protect & Enhance segment (which again turned negative). We will tweak our estimates slightly. No change in our stock recommendation.
24 Apr 18
LIBERUM: The AA* - In line FY earnings although cash a little disappointing
FY 18 FD EPS 5% ahead of expectations helped by a lower tax charge. FY 2018 net debt worse than expected partly due to cash exceptionals, but 94% cash conversion and last week the S&P re-affirmed The AA’s credit rating.
17 Apr 18
Trinity Exploration & Production
Trinity released its Q1 production update this morning. Production is broadly flat qoq as RCP activities have been lower as Trinity switched focus to drilling two onshore wells, which should bolster production going forward. Trinity also continues to pay down its liabilities ahead of schedule and increased its cash position. We don’t make any changes to our RENAV of 33p. We remain with our BUY recommendation, as we believe the share price discount to RENAV is excessive given stable production, good cash generation and potential reserves upside.
16 Apr 18
The Mission Marketing Group
Krow: Bar raised
The mission has delivered good FY17 results and announced the purchase of Krow Communications, a well-regarded London advertising agency. Initiatives on shared back-office functions and tech-enabled collaboration are starting to lift group operating margins, up 20bp to 11.7%, on the path to the FY20 goal of 14%. Strong cash generation reduced end FY17 net debt by £4.1m to £7.2m (£14.5 including previous acquisition obligations), amply covering the initial cash consideration of £2.75m for Krow. The lengthening record of delivering on expectations and of earnings growth is not consistent with the deeply discounted rating.
11 Apr 18
Central London scores top in ‘testing’ market
Transaction volumes rose by 8% YoY last year in Winkworth’s central London operations despite “testing” market conditions as sellers accepted lower offers. Revenues and profits fell by around 3% – in line with our estimates – but cashflow exceeded our expectations. We have not made material changes to our FY2018 estimates, but see scope for the company to utilise its relatively strong balance sheet at a point when indebted competitors are struggling. It yields 6.4% for FY2018 and at our 144p target price is a still attractive 5.2%.
28 Mar 18