|Name||Price||Mkt Cap||52 Week||QTD (%)||YTD (%)|
|Upgrade to view||325||122.9m||190 - 360||-0.7||-1.6|
|Upgrade to view||277||485.5m||274 - 470||-4.3||-4.3|
|Upgrade to view||242||331.0m||111 - 254||13.4||47.8|
|Upgrade to view||82.0||18.1m||80.2 - 152||-6.3||-34.0|
|Upgrade to view||106||37.2m||90.5 - 112||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||102||41.3m||57.0 - 124||4.1||-11.2|
|Upgrade to view||102||51.3m||80.5 - 136||6.2||6.2|
|Upgrade to view||290||511.2m||204 - 340||-0.5||-0.5|
|Upgrade to view||344||174.6m||334 - 434||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||325||777.2m||229 - 336||0.3||0.3|
|Upgrade to view||374||1,682m||297 - 384||19.1||5.9|
|Upgrade to view||7.2||21.5m||7.1 - 14.5||-22.6||-22.2|
|Upgrade to view||140||502.9m||123 - 162||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||138||644.2m||115 - 150||-0.4||-0.4|
|Upgrade to view||31.8||145.5m||20.2 - 32.5||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||49.5||37.4m||45.5 - 67.0||0.6||-8.3|
|Upgrade to view||132||61.6m||95.5 - 146||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||160||100.1m||140 - 185||9.7||9.7|
|Upgrade to view||391||373.7m||272 - 418||0.2||0.2|
|Upgrade to view||97.8||322.9m||49.2 - 100||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||67.0||135.4m||51.5 - 69.4||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||119||17.1m||88.5 - 410||26.3||-36.8|
|Upgrade to view||399||337.6m||292 - 412||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||148||192.3m||106 - 154||15.0||16.4|
|Upgrade to view||516||404.0m||370 - 522||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||360||362.7m||267 - 396||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||118||45.8m||104 - 126||10.6||3.0|
|Upgrade to view||261||276.1m||146 - 266||17.0||5.1|
|Upgrade to view||37.8||317.3m||36.1 - 44.0||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||1,958||361.6m||1,512 - 2,382||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||68.6||180.9m||22.1 - 91.0||10.0||-16.6|
|Upgrade to view||180||117.8m||114 - 186||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||21.5||47.1m||13.5 - 23.0||13.2||-6.5|
|Upgrade to view||530||1,800m||460 - 537||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||250||162.5m||155 - 271||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||91.0||32.6m||77.5 - 152||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||28.0||9.46m||18.5 - 31.0||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||909||365.0m||792 - 938||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||212||163.1m||170 - 308||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||60.0||70.5m||27.0 - 65.0||3.9||60.0|17 May 18
Many models, more IPOs, probably
Last Friday we hosted our second Listed Law conference, London’s only investor event focussed on the business of law in a listed context. We are fascinated that a sector involving many hundreds of billions of dollars of activity each year in high added-value services only offers public market investors fewer than a dozen equity market investment opportunities globally, with an aggregate market cap of only £4.3bn (of which Burford Capital is £3.3bn). With high costs driving change in the way legal services are bought and sold, our speakers offered fascinating insights on emerging business models. These require capital and talent to function fully and our conference theme paid particular attention to how that talent is attracted, deployed and retained. We conclude that more public investment opportunities are likely. A video of each presentation is embedded on each company profile herein and the slide packs themselves are available on e-mail by request.
Companies: BUR GOR GTLY
15 May 18
Reinstated coverage – lower sales forecasts
Sprue’s 2017 results are in line with the expectations in the January trading update, save for the £3.8m exceptional charge announced last week in the settlement with BRK. This mainly relates to an inventory write down/charge which has impacted cash flow and no final dividend has been declared. We have reinstated coverage with lower sales and profit forecasts than previously. However, with a strong product roadmap, we expect to see these recover in due course. We reinstate a Buy rating and a DCF-derived 170p target price.
Companies: Sprue Aegis
02 May 18
Prior to the financial crisis of 2008/09, it was widely believed in the stock market that certain sectors – most notably utilities, pharmaceuticals, food retailing and tobacco – were far less vulnerable to market downturns.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
17 May 18
Patisserie Holdings announced H1 FY18 interim results to 31 March 2018 earlier this week, showing continued strong growth and a robust balance sheet, despite industry pressures across the casual dining and high street spaces.
16 May 18
LIBERUM: Speedy Hire* - Strategy continues to deliver returns
Speedy’s focus on fleet optimisation and improving its relationships with SME clients has seen it deliver financial returns that exceed its cost of capital for the first time in a decade. We have long argued that this cross-over should act as an important catalyst for the shares, and continue to believe that management remains well placed to add significant shareholder value in the coming years.
Companies: Speedy Hire
15 Mar 18
As demonstrated by the recent trading update, XPD continues to grow rapidly by acquisition and also organically (+46% year-on-year in 2017). We anticipate further strong growth during the course of our estimates, driven by a combination of: exposure to faster GDP growth than the UK (CEE & the Baltic states); the relatively newer areas, such as Eshopwedrop and Pall-Ex; new offices, warehouses and services; and, not least, further acquisitions. Our valuation methodology suggests today’s market capitalisation currently undervalued the business by at least 50%, with further corporate activity likely ahead.
20 Mar 18
LIBERUM: Burford Capital* - Upgrading forecasts significantly
The CY17 results were a 34% beat at the EPS line. Given the positive post balance sheet date news regarding the Teinver sale and the $180m bond issue, we have materially increased our forecasts.
Companies: Burford Capital
09 Apr 18
UK Housebuilding Sector
This ominous-sounding term originated from the work of famed Swedish meteorologist, Tor Bergeron (1897-1977), but it only entered popular vernacular this year – and there have been ample opportunities in 2018 to use it.
Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG
30 Apr 18
Key takeaways from the Consumer reporting season
With a busy reporting season behind us we use this note to take stock. Stepping back we pull out the key themes which emerged across the sub-sectors we actively follow in the consumer space. On balance there was more cause for optimism. This is supportive of our top-down view that there is scope for a better H2 for consumer related stocks as cost headwinds ease and pressure on disposable income moderates. We also take a close look at 7 stocks we actively research and which reported over March and April. For each we use charts to depict the key takeaways from an investment case perspective.
Companies: DOM BAG NICL CHH GOAL RTN GYM MARS CVSG
09 May 18
To raise or not to raise that is the question?
The MPC faces this dilemma on Thursday. Just a few weeks ago, the decision appeared straightforward. Since, the outcome has become less obvious. A slew of weak economic indicators, not least a slowing of UK Q1 GDP growth to 0.1% point to this conclusion. Markets have rallied, due in part to renewed sterling weakness. We have also seen further M&A activity, especially in the FTSE 100 which may extend to smaller companies, in due course. The results marathon is slowing. In Share News & Views, we comment on Advanced Oncotherapy* Bloomsbury, Cronin*, OnTheMarket* and Synectics*.
Companies: APC BMS CRON CRPR ECSC ESC EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L
17 May 18
Accelerating Growth Plans
Zotefoams announced the closure of a placing by way of accelerated bookbuild, raising £20.6m, alongside an increase in debt facilities, to fund capacity expansion in Europe, responding to rising and visible demand trends in both AZOTE and ZOTEK (HPP) products. The low discount to closing price of 2.9% to raise nearly 9% of market cap implies strong demand and a well received strategic investment case.
22 May 18
We observe four attractive characteristics, which ensure MAB delivers predictable revenue, profit and dividend growth: Currently, the main driver of growth in MAB’s revenues, profits and dividends is the number of advisers employed or self-employed by its Appointed Representative firms (ARs); High cash conversion: operational cashflow is over 100% of post-tax profit; MAB is capital light: it is able to pay out 90% of reported earnings; MAB’s management team has a material equity interest.
Companies: Mortgage Advice Bureau
22 Mar 18
Growth products drive ongoing performance
Gamma has reported Adjusted EBITDA 2% ahead of our estimate at £41.6 million. Overall, revenue, margins and earnings increased despite the continued decline of the traditional business in the partner channel. While the mobile proposition has been slower to become established in the channel, it is now growing and Gamma’s Cloud PBX and SIP Trunking products continued to grow ahead of the market. Gamma launched its initial fixed/mobile converged offering in December and its new high capacity national optical network project remains on schedule. The direct business announced a number of significant contracts as it produced its best year to date with the Public Sector base securing new wins. The outlook statement states that the Group is ‘in great shape for 2018 and the foreseeable future’. Gamma has also announced the appointment of new CEO Andrew Taylor who will take over from Bob Falconer following May’s AGM. We have upgraded estimates for FY 2018E and FY 2019E to reflect good growth prospects, and we introduce new FY 2020E estimates.
Companies: Gamma Communications
27 Mar 18
High quality focus paying dividends
T Clarke achieved good growth in revenue, profits and cash generation in FY17, working on some of the very highest profile projects. It was also a year of investment in technology (Eton Associates) and new capacity. In the current climate, management’s disciplined approach to tendering is serving the business well and margins have strengthened in most regions. A new 3% operating margin target has been announced, which looks very achievable (FY17: 2.3%). While revenue is likely to moderate, profits are expected to increase by 8% and then 7% over the next two years. In our view, this is a very well managed business with a focus on quality that is not reflected in the current rating (6.0x P/E, 5.2x EV/EBITDA, 4.6% yield). We see intrinsic value at 106p, based on a blended average of peer group multiples.
01 Apr 18
Two former AIM companies could be in the FTSE 100 index in the near future following the successful bids by Melrose Industries for GKN and GVC for Ladbrokes Coral. Melrose has been on the brink of the FTSE 100 for a while and if a constituent company of the FTSE 100 is acquired than it can be replaced by the acquirer when it is eligible. Melrose is already on the reserve list for inclusion in the FTSE 100, following the March 2018 quarterly review.
Companies: PTSG JDG TRCS SRB TAP KETL
23 Apr 18
Impax Asset Management Group (IPX) ShareSoc presentation April 2018
04 Apr 18
Serabi Gold - Subscription & Funding update
18 Apr 18
Telford Homes - Trading Update
23 Mar 18
Henry Boot - Full Year Results 2017
11 May 18
Redleaf EV conference: 4. Impax Asset Management - The future of transportation
09 Mar 18
Castleton Technology (CTP) Investor presentation November 2017
16 Apr 18
Executive interview - PPHE Hotel Group
21 Feb 18
121 Mining, Cape Town - Central Asia Metals
10 Apr 18
Serica Energy plc - Full Year Results 2017
14 Feb 18
Miton Group - An Introduction
09 May 18
Vertu Motors - Analyst Interview - Zeus Capital
05 Feb 18
AB Dynamics (ABDP) February 2018 update interview with Tim Rogers CEO
20 Apr 18
Miton Group (MGR) Investor presentation April 2018
30 Jan 18
NWF Group (NWF) H1 results January 2018
02 May 18
Xpediator (XPD) presentation at Mello Derby 2018
De-rating creates opportunity ahead of June finals
Even allowing for the recent bounce, Vp’s shares have de-rated in recent months. The integration of Brandon Hire is well underway (after the CMA distraction) and a positive conclusion to FY18 has been confirmed. Once the FY18 results have been reported in June, we expect the market to focus on the strong growth forecast in FY19 (PBT +20%) as Brandon makes its first contribution. We expect the shares to re-rate towards historic norms as a result. This would imply fair value of 1075p (+20%) or 1200p (+32%) based respectively on Vp’s historic average EV/EBITDA (6.4x) and P/E (13x) ratings.
04 May 18
Proactiveinvestors - Plastics Capital - Trading update
Plastics Capital (LON:PLA) released a trading update on May 2, for the year ending March 31. The company reports that trading remains broadly in line with market expectations. The statement confirms a strong annual revenue growth, reflecting the contribution from the acquired CCM creasing matrix business and also increased organic growth, led by the Films division. The strong revenue performance reflects a strategy shift undertaken last year to focus more on top-line growth.
02 May 18
FY17/18 results expected to be broadly in line
Plastics Capital plc has provided a trading update for the year to March 2018 stating that trading is expected to be broadly in line with market expectations. We take this to mean that adjusted EBITDA and profit before tax will be marginally lower than our forecasts and have assumed a reduction of 4% and 7% respectively below the level we indicated in March. Not for the first time, the difficulty of forecasting order off-take in the Bearings business has triggered the modest reduction in expectations. Across the rest of the Group trading has been generally strong, resulting in a continuation of satisfactory organic sales growth. At this stage we are leaving forecasts for FY18/19 unchanged and believe that management is on track to report a year of solid organic sales and profit growth.
02 May 18
Phoenix Spree Deutschland
LIBERUM: Phoenix Spree Deutschland* - Future growth supported by reversionary potential
Phoenix Spree's 53% NAV total return in 2017 benefited from significant yield shift, strong rental growth and asset management gains. Like-for-like rental growth of 8% in Berlin is well ahead of the peer group.
27 Apr 18
Accelerating as quality improves
FY results are ahead of our expectations, with 17.1% revenue growth exceeding our expectations by 6%; this was driven by larger average loan size combined with lower impairments, pointing to an increasingly high quality loan book as the company indicated in the pre close trading update. For now, we keep our estimates unchanged, noting that the company tends to under promise and over deliver. We are confident our price target of 175p will be reached in the short term.
26 Apr 18
No changes to profit/dividend forecasts
Warpaint’s 2017 results were in line with expectations on the back of a strong second half before an initial contribution from Retra. We now have forecasts for the combined group, which show both adj. PBT and dividends in line with our previous illustrative projections. Retra has integrated well and there is a positive group outlook statement. With the forecast strong cash generation, we expect debt to be repaid as well as supporting the uplift in dividend. We retain our 300p DCF-derived target price and Buy recommendation.
25 Apr 18
Next Fifteen Communications Group
Final Results – Strong H2 organic growth; good start to the new year
NFC’s full year results did not contain any surprises following the January trading update. The key point was the continuation of the H2 high single digit organic revenue growth into the first two months of the new year. Whilst this by no means guarantees the full year outcome; it is a good start and underpins current year expectations. If this momentum is maintained and barring no further material FX volatility this suggests current year estimates could be conservative. NFC shares are currently trading near all time highs, which is no great surprise given the strength of the group’s performance over the last four years. Yet, the valuation does not look stretched relative to the peer group despite a superior track record and future growth outlook.
20 Apr 18
Anticipating an acceleration in organic growth
After nearly a decade developing its cloud services platform for the asset management industry, the investment at StatPro is starting to pay off. Fund administrators have begun to extend their use of Revolution and StatPro has beefed up its sales team to drive direct sales. The acquisition of Delta in May 2017 has added depth to StatPro’s front office capabilities, complementing its traditional middle office focus. Organic revenue growth was 2% in FY17 and management is optimistic that growth will accelerate over the next few years. Given the busy M&A backdrop, and the significant valuation disparity between StatPro and its US-listed financial software peers, we continue to see strong upside potential in the shares.
19 Apr 18