|ACAL||220.00||204.50 - 280.00|
|INTERSERVE||219.25||210.00 - 455.30|
|CARPETRIGHT||232.00||150.00 - 390.00|
|FIRSTGROUP||132.40||88.70 - 133.02|
|CHARLES STANLEY GROUP||305.00||251.38 - 328.00|
|ROBERT WALTERS||433.00||250.00 - 442.00|
|ALLIANCE PHARMA||48.25||41.75 - 53.00|
|BROOKS MACDONALD GROUP||1996.00||1400.00 - 2041.00|
|DRAX GROUP||326.70||265.50 - 384.60|
|ARROW GLOBAL GRP PLC||348.75||178.25 - 349.96|
|MORTGAGE ADVICE BUREAU (HLDGS) LTD||384.50||210.00 - 405.00|
|SAFECHARGE INTL GROUP LTD||255.00||185.00 - 267.50|
|UDG HEALTHCARE PLC||699.00||542.50 - 736.50|
|BREEDON GROUP PLC||79.50||56.13 - 81.00|
|ACL||220.00||204.50 - 280.00|
|IRV||219.25||210.00 - 455.30|
|CPR||232.00||150.00 - 390.00|
|FGP||132.40||88.70 - 133.02|
|CAY||305.00||251.38 - 328.00|
|RWA||433.00||250.00 - 442.00|
|APH||48.25||41.75 - 53.00|
|BRK||1996.00||1400.00 - 2041.00|
|DRX||326.70||265.50 - 384.60|
|ARW||348.75||178.25 - 349.96|
|MAB1||384.50||210.00 - 405.00|
|SCH||255.00||185.00 - 267.50|
|UDG||699.00||542.50 - 736.50|
|BREE||79.50||56.13 - 81.00|
Videos and Podcasts
N+1 Singer - Brooks Macdonald Group - In line H1 results, growth in FuM driving profitability
15 Mar 17
Brooks Macdonald has reported in line interim results with key earnings metrics underpinning c.47% of our FY17e forecast. In summary, continued FuM growth and stable fee margins has driven adj. PBT up 24% yoy. The board has declared a 15p interim dividend (+25% yoy) with strong cash generation. We do not expect to make material changes to our forecasts. We reiterate our BUY recommendation (2175p 12m TP, 17x FY18e PER) with Brooks demonstrating sustained net inflows and opportunity for material earnings growth (26% 3yr EPS CAGR).
N+1 Singer - Carpetright - Recovery has just begun
17 Feb 17
With UK LFLs up 6.8% in Jan against tough comparatives, and Europe LFLs up 5.4% in Q3, the first clear evidence is now visible that the transformation strategy is gaining momentum. Given some uncertainties, market forecasts are yet to reflect this, but upgrades seem likely as further initiatives are rolled out. Despite a recent bounce from its all time low, the valuation is still very low on consensus assumptions, where risk now appears to be shifting to the upside. With scope for re-rating too, our 300p target price has the scope to grow to 500p over 18 months. We re-initiate with a Buy.
Weak top-line results, but derivatives boost profits; dividend policy under review
16 Feb 17
Drax has published its FY16 results which are weak at the top-line level with revenues reaching £2.95bn (-4.7% yoy) and EBITDA reaching £140m, which is 2% below market expectations and represents -17.2% yoy mainly due to the removal of the renewable subsidies in the UK and lower power prices. However, a strong performance in the trading business and £177m of unrealised gains from derivative contracts have boosted the reported net income profit of the company to £194m, representing a 246% yoy increase. On an adjusted level, the profit of the group was £21m representing a 54.3% yoy contraction and an EPS of 5p, which is broadly in line with expectations, but below ours. Net debt decreased by 50.2% yoy to £93m, ahead of forecasts, due to a strong cash flow performance (+29% yoy from operating activities) and an increase in cash reserves due to a £86m positive free cash flow. The group has proposed a dividend payment of 2.5p per share (-56% yoy), which is at the consensus level and represents a 50% payout ratio. It expects a 2017 EBITDA in line with market expectations at £229m. The company has decided to put the current dividend policy under review (50% payout ratio). No information is expected before H1 17 after consulting the shareholders.
N+1 Singer - UDG Healthcare - Strong Q1 update
07 Feb 17
A strong Q1 update reassures that UDG is capitalising on the twin investment theses of structural growth in the pharma outsourcing market and mix driven margin enhancement. The company is guiding to +13-16% EPS growth at CER, driven by good organic growth and recent acquisitions. The health net cash position also means UDG retains significant firepower for further deals, which should lead to further upgrade momentum in due course. We are reviewing our forecasts for the change in reporting currency and will reissue these shortly.
N+1 Singer - Carpetright - Growth accelerates in UK and Europe as actions gain momentum
31 Jan 17
CPR’s comprehensive transformation, which started 2 years ago, is now gaining traction. Whilst PBT fell £4m in H1 (after UK LFLs fell 2.9%), effects from key changes and results of targeted investment are encouraging. This led to an acceleration of refurbs being announced in Dec (120 now done), which is key to closing the door on erosive competitor openings. Whilst these refurbs are yet to fully feed through to results, LFLs were up 1.9% in Q3 vs tough comps, and £/€ driven price rises have been successfully adopted. This is a positive update. An avg. lease length of 6 years and c175 upcoming expiries provide vital flexibility to right-size the estate and reduce the cost base. Alongside £65m of property assets (95p/share) and negligible gearing, this is key to delivering the plan. The outlook in Europe is also positive, with LFLs +5.4% and FX translation benefits. CPR is therefore on track to deliver FY forecasts and trades on <10x (3.6x EV/EBITDA) so heavily discount any uplifts from the plan, which could be material.
FY16 pre-close: 2% upgrade
27 Jan 17
MAB’s revenue and profit growth is principally driven by rising adviser numbers. We expected MAB to have 940 advisers on 31 December 2016: MAB is ahead of our expectations with 950. Revenue of £92m is within 2% of our £93.5m forecast. As PBT before FSCS levies is above consensus, we have increased our 2016 PBT, adj EPS and DPS forecasts by 2%, but left our forecast for 2017 unchanged.