|Name||Price||Mkt Cap||52 Week||QTD (%)||YTD (%)|
|Upgrade to view||744||294.9m||671 - 888||-0.8||-0.8|
|Upgrade to view||45.0||46.5m||45.0 - 45.0||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||271||33.1m||271 - 388||-5.6||-5.6|
|Upgrade to view||2.8||7.77m||2.4 - 5.6||4.6||4.6|
|Upgrade to view||26.0||25.9m||10.8 - 27.9||26.8||26.8|
|Upgrade to view||30.0||368.1m||28.7 - 55.6||-14.0||-14.0|
|Upgrade to view||101||49.5m||87.5 - 168||14.2||14.2|
|Upgrade to view||109||1,320m||101 - 153||0.4||0.4|
|Upgrade to view||592||298.1m||490 - 810||5.8||5.8|
|Upgrade to view||26.5||10.2m||26.2 - 48.5||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||50.0||87.4m||42.5 - 59.5||4.7||4.7|
|Upgrade to view||11.0||14.4m||7.8 - 12.4||13.3||13.3|
|Upgrade to view||71.0||13.1m||51.0 - 90.5||-5.4||-5.4|
|Upgrade to view||22.8||81.1m||16.5 - 62.8||20.3||20.3|
|Upgrade to view||10.7||10.9m||7.6 - 12.9||3.4||3.4|
|Upgrade to view||42.5||357.1m||36.5 - 45.8||-0.7||-0.7|
|Upgrade to view||91.5||10.9m||87.0 - 110||0.5||0.5|
|Upgrade to view||147||30.0m||120 - 320||3.6||3.6|
|Upgrade to view||58.0||27.9m||51.0 - 64.5||9.4||9.4|
|Upgrade to view||455||4,553m||370 - 467||0.6||0.6|
|Upgrade to view||3.3||1.75m||2.1 - 5.0||-14.3||-14.3|
|Upgrade to view||550||8.63m||450 - 550||4.8||4.8|
|Upgrade to view||44.0||26.1m||33.0 - 59.5||15.8||15.8|
|Upgrade to view||108||5.29m||100 - 155||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||45.3||38.2m||39.5 - 50.5||9.2||9.2|
|Upgrade to view||1.8||4.52m||1.4 - 2.8||4.0||4.0|
|Upgrade to view||75.5||206.4m||67.0 - 121||-5.0||-5.0|
|Upgrade to view||6.2||14.5m||5.8 - 11.5||0.0||0.0|
|Upgrade to view||39.5||31.0m||38.0 - 186||-19.8||-19.8|
|Upgrade to view||276||1,228m||258 - 348||-2.9||-2.9|09 Jan 18
Adjusting to the new norm
Elegant has delivered solid final results, which are 2% ahead of our forecasts at the adjusted EPS level. We are lowering our forecasts to reflect recent investment. Despite the uptick in debt following this investment, the current NAV of 163p should give some support. The dividend has also been rebased to 4.0p per annum from 2018E, albeit the yield on this in excess of 4% remains ahead of the sector average with solid cover in excess of 2.3x.
Companies: Elegant Hotels Group
11 Jan 18
Delivering continued outperformance
MMH’s pre-close statement indicates that the company continued its strong performance in 2017, despite challenging market conditions that are persisting into 2018. FY17 results are expected to be ahead of previously upgraded pre- and post-tax expectations, and we have lifted our PBT estimate 2% to £28.8m. We have reduced our FY18 PBT estimate by £1m to reflect slight additional margin pressures. The disposal of the Leasing business has strengthened the balance sheet and leaves the company well placed to implement its growth strategy.
Companies: Marshall Motor
11 Jan 18
Pre-closed update & 2017 upgrade
Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) has confirmed it has traded ahead of expectations for FY 2017. The outlook for 2018 and beyond is less certain and is consistent with our industry view. We upgrade our 2017E adj. PBT forecast by 3.6% reflecting the positive guidance in this morning’s statement. We leave our 2018E and 2019E forecasts unchanged. The shares are trading at a clear P/E and EV/EBITDA discount to the sector (32.5% and 28.6% in FY1 respectively albeit this narrows to 9.7% and 5.6% in FY2). The group has a robust balance sheet following the leasing disposal, strong asset backing with >£100m freehold and long leasehold assets and a 2017E 4.0% dividend yield at the current valuation.
Companies: Marshall Motor
28 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - T3 Trend spotting - Strategy update
In our third edition of Trend spotting we stick with our suggestion at the end of March to up European exposure and we review the recent market moves and macro trends. We comment on the recent strong performance of our growth, quality and momentum styles which we expect to continue and we examine what happened to sectors around the last general election period in 2015, adding some new colour.
Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM FUM CLIN RENE ATQT SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP MYSL FUTR
09 Nov 17
The Joy of Techs
This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.
Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CFHL CYAN ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TAP TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO
12 Sep 17
We take another look at lithium, where there is a growing realisation that the forecast massive increase in demand is already upon us. This realisation has been matched by an awareness that there is no shortage of lithium in geological terms. However, there is still a considerable degree of ignorance about which types of lithium mineralisation are commercially valuable using current processes and technologies; this will require the development and proving of new processes. In this note, we look at what attributes are required for a lithium-bearing deposit to be attractive for development into a successful mine in the present technical and economic environment.
Companies: APF ACP ATYM ASO BKY CAML FDI GEMD HZM PAF PDL SAV SHG WTI WLF
28 Sep 17
Harvey Nash has delivered a robust set of H1 results, with adjusted EPS +17% YOY. The underlying business is performing to plan, albeit market conditions across its divisions are mixed. In addition, cost savings are being delivered to plan, and the acquisitions appear to be integrating well. We are maintaining our headline forecasts on the back of these results, and continue to believe the valuation remains compelling at this juncture.
Companies: Harvey Nash Group
13 Oct 17
ABS with Lyons Davidson
NAHL Group plc has three operating divisions: Personal Injury, Residential Property and Critical Care.
Companies: NAHL Group
04 Dec 17
Topic of the quarter: It’s alive! Infrastructure and assets in general have traditionally been built to provide a fixed service and are maintained and renovated to a fixed schedule – dead and dumb. Technology will completely change this. Sensors and wireless networks have the potential to allow assets to ‘talk’ to us. These living, smart assets will be able to tell us when they need maintenance, how efficient they are being and provide the data that will directly influence their construction, availability and use. The implications for construction costs through to operating costs and the ability to service changing user needs are very significant. The Support Services, Construction and Technology sectors need to work together to maximise this potential, recognise and harness the power of data, and invest in and embrace change. These are daunting challenges in highly competitive markets where politics play a role, different skill sets (that are currently in short supply) are needed and shareholders are looking over management's shoulders. However, the prize for those companies who get it right is significant, and the risk from not changing much greater. There are positive early signs with Crossrail providing tangible examples of Smart Infrastructure using innovative sensors.
Companies: FOUR ACL BOOT CLL CNCT FCRM LOK PPH RNWH STAF UTW WATR VANL WYG
02 Jan 18
HCM Update 02.01.18 (EMR.L; PTY.L; RWA.L; SVCA.L; STHR.L) RM
Empresaria Group plc (EMR.L, 90p/£44.1m) Initiation of share buy backs (13.12.17) | Parity Group plc (PTY.L, 9.375p/£9.6m) Full year trading update to 31.12.17 (13.12.17) | Robert Walters plc (RWA.L, 592p/£446m) Trading update to 30.11.17 (12.12.17) | Servoca plc (SVCA.L, 23p/£28.3m) Preliminary results to 30.09.17 (12.12.17) | SThree plc (STHR.L, 368p/£479m) Full year trading update to 30.11.17 (15.12.17)
Companies: EMR PTY RWA SVCA STHR
17 Jan 18
We have fine-tuned our forecasts to reflect a strong Q417 trading in personal injury markets and some modest mix changes in our model. Our FY18 and FY19 forecasts are broadly unchanged, indicating good progress with the launch of two ABSs and significant investment, which is supported by improved banking facilities. NAHL has a track record of being highly innovative around changes in regulation and we believe the changing personal injury landscape presents an opportunity to build market share. Trading on a “trough” FY18 PE ratio of 9.2x and a dividend yield of 7.2%, the shares remain inexpensive.
Companies: NAHL Group
17 Jan 18
“Minimal” exposure to Carillion
Carillion’s high profile bankruptcy on Monday has certainly hit the headlines. Politicians on both sides of the aisle have been throwing stones at one another. An official investigation into the fiasco has been announced. But perhaps worst of all, the future of 10,000s of hard-working employees, pensioners and businesses (eg Balfour Beatty, Speedy Hire, Galliford Try, etc) have been affected.
16 Nov 16
Looking into 2017/18
Sector sentiment is at a low point with clear uncertainty around 2017/18 earnings. We are attempting to cut through this, and believe the share price falls more than price in the earnings risk. Following a robust September, we would expect a strong 2016 performance, which has been confirmed by all dealers, but do expect conditions to get more difficult from here. We continue to favour stocks with flexible balance sheets at this stage of the cycle.
Companies: CAMB INCH LOOK MMH PDG VTU
19 Sep 17
No change to earnings forecasts following H117 results which are tracking in line with our full year estimates. NAHL has a track record of being highly innovative around changes in regulation and we believe the changing personal injury landscape presents an opportunity to build market share. The group is making good progress on delivery of strategy with launch of the first ABS joint venture in May 2017 and the significant strategic investment is now supported by improved banking facilities. Trading on a “trough” FY18 PE ratio of just 6.6x and a dividend yield of 10.3%, we believe the shares are meaningfully undervalued.
Companies: NAHL Group
02 Oct 17
HCM Update 02.10.17 (DSG.L, HVN.L, NBB.L)
Dillistone Group plc (DSG.L, 58.5p/£11.5m) Interim results to 30.06.17 (28.09.17) | Harvey Nash Group plc (HVN.L, 89p/£65.4m) Interim results to 31.07.17 (28.09.17) | Norman Broadbent plc (NBB.L, 11p/£4.6m) Interim results to 30 June 2017 and £1.23m placing (29.09.17)
Companies: DSG HVN NBB
28 Dec 17
Highlights 2017: The Mission Marketing Group sponsors of The Good Web Guide Website of the Year Awards 2017
22 Nov 17
Capital Network's Ed Stacey discusses Empresaria Group Plc
22 Dec 17
Serabi Gold - Acquisition
14 Nov 17
Serabi Gold - Acquisition of Coringa gold project, Brazil
11 Jan 18
Marshall Motor Holdings - Pre-close Statement
25 Oct 17
Serabi Gold - Strong third quarter production consolidating 2017 production
11 Dec 17
Serabi Gold - Updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement
11 Oct 17
Vertu Motors - Interim Results
30 Dec 16
Palace Capital (PCA) at ShareSoc, Richmond 2nd November 2016
11 Oct 17
Vertu Motors - Sector Issues
22 Sep 16
Mission Marketing Group - Interim Results
21 Sep 17
The Mission Marketing Group - H1 Results 2017
13 Jan 16
Marshall Motor Holdings - Pre-close statement
16 Aug 17
Marshall Motor Holdings - Analyst interview, Zeus Capital
02 Nov 17
The Mission Marketing Group: Fuse - An Introduction
Whoops - Profit Warning
Following the pre-announcement of its Christmas trading we have cut our DEB PBT estimates for 2017/18E, 2018/19E and 2019/20E by 33%, 28% and 28% respectively. We have also cut our DPS estimates for these years by 35%, 25% and 22%.to achieve 2x cover in 2018/19E.
05 Jan 18
Debenhams becomes the first Profit Warning of 2018 guiding 8/18 PBT to £55-65m around 20% below consensus at the mid-point. This highlights the operational gearing here with the main financial variance being a 150bps 1H gross margin decline against previous guidance for Full Year gross margin to fall 25bps. This has resulted from tactical promotion to maintain clean stock and weaker than expected start to the Clearance Sale.
04 Jan 18
Capital Network: Perspective on the trading Update
Empresaria released a trading update on November 21st, lowering the expected growth rate for FY2017 PBT. This was due to the weak market conditions in the Mideast which were flagged in the H1 results, and also to changes in legislation in Germany. The German issue, also previously know, relates to rules restricting the length of tenure for contract workers (Empresaria’s main focus) and the introduction of equal pay after 9 months. These rules take full effect in 2018, but employers appear to be adjusting their behaviour ahead of implementation.
22 Nov 17