Nutrien reported net earnings of $1,229mn in 2Q25, up from $392mn a year ago, with diluted net earnings per share of $2.50, compared to $0.74 in 2Q24. The primary drivers were a 12% YoY increase in potash sales volumes, a 30% YoY rise in offshore potash prices, a 7% YoY increase in nitrogen sales volumes, and an 11% rise in urea prices. In the Phosphates segment, higher fertilizer prices offset lower sales volumes. Total sales rose 3% YoY to $10,438mn, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% YoY to $2,486mn. The company cut expenses by 33% YoY to $1,393mn. Retail sales declined 1% YoY to $7,959mn, mainly due to lower crop protection products and seed sales. Higher volumes and selling prices in North America were partly offset by weaker sales volumes in Australia due to hot weather. The average retail price increased 2% YoY. Retail Adjusted EBITDA reached $1,149mn, up 2% YoY. The Potash segment net sales rose 31% YoY to $991mn, driven by a 12% increase in volumes to 3.989mt, and a 17% rise in average potash prices, with offshore sales prices up 30% YoY. Potash gross margin rose 24%YoY, while cash costs were $55/t, up 10% YoY and down from $60/t in 1Q25. Potash Adjusted EBITDA climbed 33% YoY to $630mn in 2Q. Nitrogen net sales grew 23% YoY to $1,260mn, supported by 7% higher volumes, a 14% increase in urea prices, and a 21% YoY rise in solutions and nitrates price. Ammonia prices were up just 1% YoY. Despite a 20% increase in gas costs per MMBtu, nitrogen gross margin expanded 27% YoY, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 12% YoY to $667mn. In the Phosphates segment, net sales rose 1% YoY to $396mn, as an 11% YoY price increase offset a 7% YoY decline in sales volumes. Gross margin improved by 5% YoY, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 5% YoY to $92mn. Cash from operating activities jumped 40% YoY to $2,538mn, while cash used in investing activities fell 19% YoY to $495mn. The company returned $373mn to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Net debt stood at $12,251mn, nearly flat YoY.
Nutrien raised its potash sales guidance for FY25 from 13.6–14.4 mt to 13.9–14.5 mt, while maintaining forecasts for Retail Adjusted EBITDA and Nitrogen and Phosphate volumes. Nitrogen sales volumes are projected at 10.7–11.2 mt (up from 10.6 mt in 2024), while Phosphate volumes are expected between 2.35–2.55 mt (vs. 2.43 mt in 2024). Global potash shipments are projected at 73–75 mt in 2025, compared to 72.5 mt in 2024. Strong 1Q25 demand supported both potash pricing and volumes, and Nutrien noted historically low US nitrogen producer inventories entering 2H25.
Reflecting a positive outlook for the nitrogen and potash markets, we have updated our forecasts. Fertilizer producers report robust demand, supported by higher prices and improved potash contract margins in India and China. We have raised our DCF-based 12-month price target to US$65.4 (from US$61.1) and reaffirm our ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

26 Aug 2025
Nutrien 2Q25: Strong Potash and Nitrogen Results Support Margin Growth

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Nutrien 2Q25: Strong Potash and Nitrogen Results Support Margin Growth
Nutrien reported net earnings of $1,229mn in 2Q25, up from $392mn a year ago, with diluted net earnings per share of $2.50, compared to $0.74 in 2Q24. The primary drivers were a 12% YoY increase in potash sales volumes, a 30% YoY rise in offshore potash prices, a 7% YoY increase in nitrogen sales volumes, and an 11% rise in urea prices. In the Phosphates segment, higher fertilizer prices offset lower sales volumes. Total sales rose 3% YoY to $10,438mn, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% YoY to $2,486mn. The company cut expenses by 33% YoY to $1,393mn. Retail sales declined 1% YoY to $7,959mn, mainly due to lower crop protection products and seed sales. Higher volumes and selling prices in North America were partly offset by weaker sales volumes in Australia due to hot weather. The average retail price increased 2% YoY. Retail Adjusted EBITDA reached $1,149mn, up 2% YoY. The Potash segment net sales rose 31% YoY to $991mn, driven by a 12% increase in volumes to 3.989mt, and a 17% rise in average potash prices, with offshore sales prices up 30% YoY. Potash gross margin rose 24%YoY, while cash costs were $55/t, up 10% YoY and down from $60/t in 1Q25. Potash Adjusted EBITDA climbed 33% YoY to $630mn in 2Q. Nitrogen net sales grew 23% YoY to $1,260mn, supported by 7% higher volumes, a 14% increase in urea prices, and a 21% YoY rise in solutions and nitrates price. Ammonia prices were up just 1% YoY. Despite a 20% increase in gas costs per MMBtu, nitrogen gross margin expanded 27% YoY, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 12% YoY to $667mn. In the Phosphates segment, net sales rose 1% YoY to $396mn, as an 11% YoY price increase offset a 7% YoY decline in sales volumes. Gross margin improved by 5% YoY, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 5% YoY to $92mn. Cash from operating activities jumped 40% YoY to $2,538mn, while cash used in investing activities fell 19% YoY to $495mn. The company returned $373mn to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Net debt stood at $12,251mn, nearly flat YoY.
Nutrien raised its potash sales guidance for FY25 from 13.6–14.4 mt to 13.9–14.5 mt, while maintaining forecasts for Retail Adjusted EBITDA and Nitrogen and Phosphate volumes. Nitrogen sales volumes are projected at 10.7–11.2 mt (up from 10.6 mt in 2024), while Phosphate volumes are expected between 2.35–2.55 mt (vs. 2.43 mt in 2024). Global potash shipments are projected at 73–75 mt in 2025, compared to 72.5 mt in 2024. Strong 1Q25 demand supported both potash pricing and volumes, and Nutrien noted historically low US nitrogen producer inventories entering 2H25.
Reflecting a positive outlook for the nitrogen and potash markets, we have updated our forecasts. Fertilizer producers report robust demand, supported by higher prices and improved potash contract margins in India and China. We have raised our DCF-based 12-month price target to US$65.4 (from US$61.1) and reaffirm our ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.