 Nutrien reported net earnings of $118mn, a 33% YoY decline, and adjusted EBITDA of $1,055mn, down 2% YoY in 4Q24. Revenue decreased 10% YoY to $5,079mn. In FY2024, revenue decreased 11% YoY to $25,972mn, with Adjusted EBITDA at $5,355mn (down 12% YoY), and net earnings at $700mn (down 45% YoY). Nutrien’s Retail sales fell 9.2% YoY to $3,179mn, primarily due to a 10.2% YoY drop in crop nutrients sales volumes to 2.57mt in 4Q. The gross margin of retail sales increased by 5.9% YoY in 4Q, while the international gross margin per ton declined by 31.5% YoY. Retail sales volumes decreased 3% YoY to 12.649mt in FY24. However, the total retail gross margin improved 4% YoY due to lower expenses and higher crop protection and seed margins. Retail Adjusted EBITDA reached $1,696mn in FY24, exceeding the guidance of $1.5-1.6bn. The Potash segment reported a 30.9% YoY decrease in net sales to $536mn in 4Q, driven by a 17.4% YoY decline in the average potash price. Potash production volumes fell 0.5% YoY in 4Q but increased 9% YoY to 14.205mt in FY24. Total potash sales for FY24 declined 20% YoY due to a 24% drop in potash price. Nitrogen sales volumes rose 6.6% YoY in 4Q24 and 3% YoY in FY24. The average nitrogen price increased 1.9% YoY in 4Q but declined 12% YoY in FY24. Nitrogen sales grew 6% YoY to $1,013mn in 4Q but declined 11% YoY to $3,745mn in FY24. The phosphate segment reported a 17% YoY decline in net sales to $1,657mn. In 4Q, net sales were $414mn, down 22.3% YoY primarily due to lower quarterly sales volumes. The company is focusing on reducing inventory levels, particularly in Brazil. The average phosphate price increased 7% YoY in 4Q and 3% YoY in FY24. Since early 2018, the company has increased its quarterly dividend by 36% to $0.545 per share. In 2H24, Nutrien repurchased 3.9mn shares for a total of $190mn and acquired 1.9mn shares in 2025 for $96mn as of February 18.  Nutrien expects Retail Adj EBITDA to range between $1.65bn and $1.85bn in FY25, compared to $1.696bn in FY24. Potash sales volumes are projected to be between 13.6 and 14.4mt in 2025, compared to 13.9mt in 2024. Nitrogen sales volumes are expected to reach 10.7-11.2mt, up from 10.6mt in 2024. Phosphate sales volumes are anticipated to range from 2.35mt to 2.55mt, down from 2.43mt last year. The guidance assumes higher operating rates for nitrogen and potash, with lower phosphate production in 1H25, followed by improved operating rates in 2H25. The company maintains its capex target of $2.0-2.1bn for 2025, in line with previous announcements. Nutrien expects strong global potash shipments, projected at 71-75mt in 2025, compared to 72.5mt in 2024. The company anticipates stronger prices in 2025, driven by robust demand and affordability. The anticipated Canadian tariff on potash could impact the prices for US customers. Increased capacity, improved gas utilization, and enhanced cost control are expected to contribute to volume and margin growth in 2025-26.  We have updated our forecasts and remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects for 2025, as demand for nutrients remains robust. The global supply of potash has been at historically high levels over the last two years, making it difficult to anticipate significantly stronger prices. While the sanctions against Russia and Belarus may change, supply from both countries has already recovered to pre-war levels. The nitrogen segment remains strong, with some European production capacities shut down due to higher gas costs. However, new capacities coming online are expected to replace older ones, keeping the market balanced. As a result, fertilizer affordability is likely to support the deliveries. We have updated our DCF-based 12-month price target to US$61.1 from US$ 57.1 and maintain a ‘Buy’ rating.