Arden Partners Equity Research & Stock Reports
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H117 trading update
No change to forecasts following H117 update; our forecast equates to earnings growth of 23% in FY17. We believe a PE valuation around 10x remains inconsistent with current trading, geographical alignment and delivery of the strategy to acquire niche growth businesses such as Rishworth and ConSol. We anticipate an ongoing narrowing of the discount to its peer group as superior growth rates compensate for size/liquidity and cash generation drives a rapidly improved balance sheet. A rating of at least 13x is a realistic short term expectation providing scope for meaningful share price outperformance from current levels.
21 Jul 17
AGM trading update & £5.4m TT project win
FY 2017 was a challenging year for Renold, with challenging market conditions, particularly in H1 but with improvements towards the year end and the benefits from the Group’s self help measures and FX translation tailwinds. Consequently, revenues increased 11.0% on a reported basis but were down 0.7% in constant currency and down 3.6% excluding the impact of acquisitions. Although operating margins fell from 8.6% to 7.9%, with the FX translation tailwind, PBT was marginally ahead at £12.8m.
19 Jul 17
H117 pre-close update
No change to forecasts following the H117 update. NAHL management have a track record of being highly innovative around changes in regulation and the changing personal injury landscape presents an opportunity to build market share. The Group has communicated its growth strategy in response to these changes, providing forecast benchmarks on which to base longterm investment decisions. Based on these metrics, valuations now appear very modest in the context of the evolving investment case. Trading on a “trough” FY18 PE ratio of just 6.5x and a dividend yield of 10.6%, successful delivery to this strategy will, we believe, provide the catalyst for a strong share price recovery.
19 Jul 17
First Property Group
New £182m fund mandate
First Property (Fprop) has announced that it has established a major new fund - Fprop Offices LP - with eight institutional investors. The Fund has a term of seven years and is mandated to invest in office blocks and business parks across England.
17 Jul 17
Finals – Continued strong trading
Abbey’s full-year results reflect another year of strong underlying trading, combined with weaker Sterling which impacted reported € sales and profits. Abbey completed 586 house sales in the year, down slightly on the 597 units in the prior year and average Sterling translation rates were over 12% weaker than the prior year, but these factors were largely offset by stronger pricing with reported € revenues down only 2%.
12 Jul 17
FY17 results highlight strong organic growth momentum (+12.6%) as core markets continue to perform well supported by lateral hires. We believe these results are testimony to the success of the strategy to move from LLP to a plc with the group’s profile and ability to attract new fee earners enhanced by the non-traditional approach to corporate structure for a UK law firm. Deal flow has held up well to date with good activity levels in core areas such as corporate, finance and property markets. Whilst the shares have been pushing new highs, we retain our positive stance given clear evidence of strong organic growth delivery and an opportunityrich corporate landscape that should provide for further earnings enhancement in due course.
11 Jul 17
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