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NAHL Group

ABS with Lyons Davidson

NAHL Group plc has three operating divisions: Personal Injury, Residential Property and Critical Care.

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  • 13 Oct 17
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Lamprell

Forecast and recommendation downgrade

We have carried out a further review of our model in light of the recent H1 2017 results. This has led us to account for higher costs, and hence lower margins, for the full year. There are a number of drivers for this, including allowance for lower margins on the East Anglia 1 contract; non-recurrence in the second half of a US$16m benefit to EBITDA in H1 2017 related to release of contingencies on the Ensco rigs, release of provisions for claims by Hereema and final payments on the Petrofac and NDC contracts; and allowance for the costs of the Saudi Maritime Yard JV in the P&L. These changes leave our 2017 revenues unchanged at US$370m, but EBITDA falls from US$16.9m to US$2.2m, and EPS loss from (4.7c) to (9.0c).

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  • 13 Oct 17
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Independent Oil & Gas

New CPR for development assets

IOG has released a new CPR from ERC Equipoise for its Blythe, Elgood and Vulcan Satellites development assets (the Vulcan Satellites are now being renamed Nailsworth, Elland amd Southwark). This reports a substantial conversion of contingent resources into reserves, based on the extensive seismic interpretation, geological and reservoir modelling work IOG has now carried out on the assets. Blythe 2P is put at 33bcf (versus the 42bcf we have allowed for), Elgood is attributed 2P at 22bcf (versus the 27bcf of 2C we have allowed for), and the three Vulcan Satellites fields are attributed 2P of 248bcf (versus the 321bcf of 2C we had allowed for). Overall the total quantum of gas is lower versus our previous numbers, but the attribution of reserves (prior to FID in this case) represents an increase in certainty around these volumes, and in our view an important degree of derisking for the assets and confidence in progression of the developments.

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  • 12 Oct 17
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Genel Energy

Recommendation downgrade to Neutral

The recent Kurdistan independence referendum, which returned an overwhelming majority in favour of independence, has, in our view, brought the political volatility in the KRI into focus for the market. For us, the ongoing negative impact of this counteracts the value of Tawke and Taq Taq, and makes material progress on the Miran/Bina Bawi gas project less likely. For these reasons, we are moving our recommendation from Add to Neutral, and moving our price target from 170p to 120p.

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  • 11 Oct 17
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Dart Group

Monarch toppled by industry revolution

The collapse of Monarch has been a shock to many, but comes as less of a surprise to industry watchers that have seen the pressures building in its markets. To a significant extent this is part of a European wide phenomena, as capacity growth by airlines such as Ryanair, easyJet and Wizz Air have run ahead of demand, which has put pressure on ticket yields and this has been a major factor in the recent failures of Alitalia and Air Berlin.

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  • 11 Oct 17
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Palace Capital

New Jewel for the Palace

Following the completion of the Open Offer & General Meeting on 7th October 2017, Palace Capital has successfully raised £70m of new equity to fund the acquisition of R.T. Warren. R.T. Warren contains 21 commercial properties, comprised of 15 office buildings, 4 retail properties and 2 industrial holdings as well as 65 residential properties. The portfolio was valued by Cushman & Wakefield at £71.8m and Palace is paying £68m (£53.3m cash, £14.5m debt). Consistent with Palace’s strategy the properties are located outside London in high value areas such as York, Winchester, Southampton, Beaconsfield, Brighton, Gerrards Cross, Uxbridge and Thame. The acquisition completed on 9th October 2017.

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  • 11 Oct 17
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