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Auctus on Friday - 25/09/2020

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$20.00 per share: All eyes on CPO-5 - We see the CPO-5 block becoming a key area of focus in the next 18 months and the main reason behind the acquisition of AMERISUR in January 2020. By YE20, GeoPark will drill two wells on the highly prospective CPO-5 block. This will include an imminent development/appraisal well in the Indico light oil field followed by an exploration well. The only existing well in the Indico field is still flowing naturally at >5 mbbl/d since first oil in December 2018. The implied very strong reservoir performance and the fact that the oil pool boundaries have not been encountered yet suggest the field offers production and reserves upside that could start to be unlocked with upcoming drilling. In 2021, GeoPark could drill an additional 5-7 wells at CPO-5 comprising a combination of exploration, delineation and development wells. According to the latest CPR, 3-4 new Indico wells could add 7.5-12.5 mbbl/d gross production (2.5-4.2 mbbl/d net to GeoPark) in 1-2 years. The exploration program for 2021 will likely test the continuity of the Guadalupe play encountered on Llanos-34 into CPO-5. The share price trades at ~55% discount to our Core NAV of ~US$17. Overall there could be 350-700 mmboe gross prospective resources across the Llanos blocks (including CPO-5) that GeoPark is imminently starting to explore. Our target price of US$20 per share reflects our ReNAV. It represents ~150% upside to the current levels. IN OTHER NEWS ________________________________________ AMERICAS Gran Tierra Energy (GTE CN/LN): Production update in Colombia – During 3Q20 to date, production has averaged ~18.700 boe/d increasing to an average of 21,250 boe/d during September, reflecting the resumption of production at the Suroriente and PUT-7 Blocks in the southern Putumayo region, as well as at several minor fields, and by the recommencement of workover activities at the Acordionero oil field. As of August 31, 2020, Gran Tierra has collected total VAT and income tax receivables of ~US$51 mm; the company expects to collect approximately another US$25 to $35 mm before YE20. FY21 WI production is expected to be >30,000 boe/d. Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Resources update in Alaska – The SMD horizon at the Talitha prospect is estimated to hold 302 mmbbl prospective resources. 91 wells would be required to develop the field that would reach 90 mbbl/d peak production. Pantheo holds 89.2% of the project. EUROPE IGas Energy (IGAS LN): 1H20 results – 1H20 net production in the UK was d ~1,940 boe/d. Cash balances as at 30 June 2020 were £2.6 mm with net debt of £11.2 mm. IGas reiterated its FY20 production guidance 1,850 - 2,050 boe/d, with underlying cash operating expenses anticipated to be $34/boe. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): Selling assets in Norway – Shell is selling its interests in the Kvitebjørn and Valemon fields in the North Sea to PGNiG. UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN): Updated volumetric at UK asset – The Loxley Accumulation is now expected to hold 23-70 bcf recoverable resources. ~78% of the overall Loxley gas accumulation's gas resource are interpreted to lie within the Company's PEDL234 acreage. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Genel Energy (GENL LN): Receives payment from the KRG – Genel has received a total net payment of US$10.8 mm for sales at Tawke and Taq Taq in August. Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Oman entry – Maha has been awarded 100% WI in the onshore Block 70 that includes the shallow undeveloped Mafraq heavy oil field. The Block is located in the middle of the oil producing Ghaba Salt Basin in the central part of Oman. The Mafraq oil field was discovered by Petroleum Development Oman in 1988 and was further delineated by four wells and 3D seismic in stages until 2010. The Mafraq field is estimated to contain between 185 – 280 mmbbl of original oil in place. The productive reservoir is located at approximately 430 m below ground level. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Africa Energy (AEC SS/AFE CN): Private placement – Africa Energy has raised US$28 mm of new equity priced at SEK3.00 per share. San Leon Energy (SLE LN): 1H20 results – Gross oil sales at OML-18 were 25.2 mbbl/d during 1H20 with gas sales of 39.1 mmcf/d. Production downtime and “losses” were respectively 15% and 20% over the period. San Leon held US$22.6 mm in cash as at 18 September (US$6.8 mm is held in escrow for the Oza transaction).

GENL GPRK MAHAA RDSA UKOG

  • 25 Sep 20
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