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21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

06 Nov 19

Profits recovered in Q3, as expected

BMW had a dismal H1 19 when car deliveries and revenue were hardly up and when earnings collapsed. All these numbers were back in positive territory in Q3 and they all exceeded our projections. While net earnings of €1.55bn were only slightly higher than our expected €1.53bn, EBIT of €2.29bn was considerably higher than our €2.07bn.

Companies: Bayerische Motoren Werke

07 Nov 19

Impressive execution

Vestas’ Q3 results beat expectations in all metrics. The order intake momentum remained extremely strong by growing 45% to 4.7GW, taking the order backlog to an all-time high, which, combined with a stable ASP, gives good visibility for both next year and 2021. Management confirmed its full-year targets. With this impressive execution, Vestas confirmed its leadership position amongst its peers. We confirm our positive opinion on the stock.

Companies: Vestas Wind Systems

07 Nov 19

Good numbers

Natixis released its numbers for Q3 19. Gross operating profit was 7.6% higher than expected (+2.2% vs our own expectations), mainly driven by the Asset and wealth management division. The CET1 ratio at 11.5% was flat qoq. Management is now targeting a CET1 ratio of 11.2% by end-2020 (vs 11% previously) through a decrease in Natixis’ 2018–20 budget (minimum payout ratio of 60% is unchanged however).

Companies: Natixis

04 Nov 19

bet-at-home - On target to reach top end of guidance

bet-at-home (BAH) has reported Q319 gross gaming revenues (GGR) of €35.7m and EBITDA of €5.6m, slightly above our estimates. We are therefore raising our FY19 GGR and EBITDA forecasts by 4.4% and 2.5%, respectively, so that they are now at the top end of guidance. As disclosed in September, BAH is liable for €11.9m of Austrian tax back payments and annual tax will also rise by c €5m, which reduces our normalised FY19 EPS by 16.6% . Including the tax liability, net cash was €33.3m at Q3119. Given the negative tax news, we now forecast a prospective dividend of €4/share (rather than €5/share) which equates to an 8.2% dividend yield.

Companies: bet-at-home.com

05 Nov 19

Further revaluations to come in H2 19

The pace of organic growth was stable in Q3 19 at c. 4.0%. Vonovia announced it will probably increase the valuation of its portfolio by another €1.6-2.3bn in H2 19 (excluding capex) vs. €2.2bn in H1 19 or c. 7% in FY 19.

Companies: Vonovia

05 Nov 19

Vermilion Energy - 14% dividend yield and FY20 growth covered

Vermilion Energy’s geographically diverse portfolio spreads geopolitical and pricing risk across different economies. The company has grown both organically and inorganically through a series of new country entries, with a solid track record of hitting guidance targets. Additionally, management has delivered on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) objectives, being highly rated across multiple ESG rating platforms. Notwithstanding this, Vermilion has been affected by the current negative sentiment around Canadian E&P equities, which has dragged down its share price. This decrease results in a highly attractive dividend yield of c 14%, which we believe is sustainable for the coming years under most oil price scenarios. Based on a blended approach of fundamental and market methodologies, our valuation is C$38.3/share, although this remains highly sensitive to commodity price assumptions.

Companies: Vermilion Energy

06 Nov 19

Strong capital beat

Societe Generale (SocGen) released this morning its numbers for Q3 19. Profit before loan losses was lower than expected mainly due to lower revenues from the CIB. However, a stronger than expected solvability (+40bp vs consensus) should offset this.

Companies: Societe Generale

07 Nov 19

FLASH: FY20 work programme, starting to pay a dividend

3Q19 production had already been reported. GeoPark will start paying a quarterly dividend of US$0.0413/sh in 4Q19. It has bought back 4.4 mm shares since December 2018 representing US$72.6 mm and 7% of the outstanding shares. Net debt at end September based on WC was US$415 mm, (GMP FEe: US$408 mm). 3Q19 Operating Cashflow was US$63.8 mm, (GMP FEe: US$77.2 mm) due to a -US$24.9 mm WC movement.

Companies: Geopark

07 Nov 19

Pixium Vision - Pixium to raise up to €10m to advance Prima

Pixium Vision announced on 6 November a financing agreement with a US-based investor, European Select Growth Opportunities Fund (ESGO) for the issue of up to €10m in 12-month bonds repayable in cash and/or new shares, over a period of up to 30 months. The first bond tranche (€1.25m) was issued on 6 November and Pixium expects this, along with cash on hand (€7.0m at Q319), to fund the firm’s operations through H120. We anticipate that a full €10m bond exercise could fund Pixium’s operations into 2021, well after the expected start of a pivotal Prima trial.

Companies: Pixium Vision

07 Nov 19

Berentzen Gruppe - Transforming for growth

Berentzen-Gruppe is undergoing a transformation in order to become more agile and dynamic after years of stagnation, and the results are starting to come through. The focus has shifted to driving profitability through portfolio simplification and encouraging consumers to trade up: product and segment mix are now being carefully managed to help improve gross margin. The balance sheet remains very conservative, with a small net debt figure at end H119. Management guidance for the financial year has been reiterated, and H2 product launches may provide further upside.

Companies: Berentzen Gruppe

08 Nov 19

Shell acquires a French offshore wind developer

Shell is acquiring the French offshore wind developer Eolfi. The Anglo-Dutch oil major, which wants to be on the “right side of history”, is increasing its investments in renewables. Having such a committed player now in France is positive for the domestic supply chain. With the ambition of reducing its net carbon footprint by half by 2050, this acquisition is further evidence of the potential of offshore wind in light of the energy transition.

Companies: Dietswell

08 Nov 19

Q3 19: Offshore energy's strong recovery expected by management

Boskalis posted a respectable set of results despite the difficult market conditions. The market is rewarding the company for its expectation of a strong recovery in Offshore Energy, the current main drag on the performance and what we consider to be a call option. Following this earnings release, we expect to increase our target price by some 5-10% and to keep our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Koninklijke Boskalis Westminster

12 Nov 19

Q4: recovery to accelerate in Q2 20

Infineon’s Q4 publication was strong. The company achieved a decent profitability level and good cash generation. The sequential outlook was a bit disappointing, but the FY20 guidance implies an even stronger recovery to start in March 2020. On top of this, the equity story of the company, driven by both Power and Digitalisation in Automotive and Industrial applications, remains intact with strong secular growth trends.

Companies: Infineon Technologies

07 Nov 19

D/S Norden optimistic for Dry Operator and Tankers

There was no surprise in the figures in Q3 19 which were partially disclosed on 24 October 2019 when D/S Norden warned on 2019 guidance (please see our Latest). The confirmed ‘adjusted’ net result ($10-45m range) is based on a strong Q4 19 expected in Dry Operator and better trading conditions in Tankers by the end of 2019 which should continue in 2020.

Companies: Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN

12 Nov 19

Good news after good news, Dialog's muscle in its game

Just a week after releasing strong results, Dialog came back to the market to release another good piece of news. The company has upped its long-term profitability guidance, which we believe will generate upward pressure on the consensus.

Companies: Dialog Semiconductor

17 Jul 19

Executive interview - Tinexta

12 Nov 19

Executive interview - OTC Markets Group

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – EQS Group

08 Nov 19

Bitesize briefing - Deutsche Beteiligungs

21 Mar 18

Bitesize briefing – Vermillion Energy

10 Oct 19

ISC Subsidiary ERS signs 7-million-dollar aviation airport authority deal

05 Jan 17

Executive Interview - Touchstone Innovations

10 Oct 19

ISC Subsidiary ERS signs 7-million-dollar with Irish Aviation Authority

17 Jul 19

Bitesize briefing - Technicolor

16 Sep 19

Executive interview - GESCO

25 Jun 19

Executive interview - Alkane Resources

30 Jul 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

18 Jul 17

Executive interview - Volition Rx

26 Jun 19

Executive interview - InMed Pharmaceuticals

03 Oct 19

VAALCO Energy looking to grow five-fold by 2025 as it begins trading in London

Latest Content

Dialog Semiconductor

Good news after good news, Dialog's muscle in its game

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12 Nov 19
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Infineon Technologies

Q4: recovery to accelerate in Q2 20

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12 Nov 19
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OTC MARKETS GROUP INC-A

Executive interview - OTC Markets Group

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12 Nov 19

Atlantia

9m19: the virtue of the Abertis acquisition and we would welcome a revoking of the Autostrade concession

Our view is that revoking the Autostrade concession could only take place at a fair price for Atlantia as Italy belongs to the European Union. At AlphaValue, we would welcome a revoking (at a fair price) as it would accelerate the geographical diversification of Atlantia away from Italy. Despite this and in view of the earnings release, we expect little change to our forecasts and, hence, no change in our Buy recommendation.

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12 Nov 19
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Mediobanca Group

New business plan points to a 10% total annual return

The new business plan stands at the high end of consensus expectations. The top-line growth will come at a high cost in terms of operating expenses, translating into relatively similar bottom-line progression. It remains that, if successful, the shareholders will be granted a 10% total return, above the 8% they usually require for an equity investment.

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12 Nov 19
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Iliad

The trumpets of Jericho sound to raise the stock

Iliad has released a correct Q3 which reflects an improvement trend in France. But the amazing and odd news of the day is a €1.4bn public share buy-back offer at €120 per share, corresponding to 20% of the market cap of the group. This operation will be financed in parallel by a share issue at the same price at which Xavier Niel could invest up to… €1.4bn.

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12 Nov 19
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Lonza Group

Merry-go-round or ejection seat?

We have not heard a lot from Lonza in 2019, but the second CEO ‘disposal’ within a ten-month period looks quite strange to us. This is very atypical for a Swiss company, which tend to act more steadily and long-term oriented. It looks to us as if management and the shareholder representatives did not agree with each other. The CEO’s seat looks more like an ejection seat to us.

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12 Nov 19
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Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas

9m 19: no disclosure of lfl EBITDA growth ex-IFRS 16

The absence of disclosure of lfl EBITDA growth ex-IFRS 16 is a shame. The significant net debt increase as well as the many adjustments to be made in net profits means that there are too many moving parts to express a clear impact on our target price, but what we can say is that we intend to keep our Buy recommendation albeit with a lower target price.

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12 Nov 19
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Continental

Unchanged car production expected for 2020 and no material recovery thereafter

Management has turned rather cautious for the next five years and does not expect a material recovery after an expected 6% fall for the current year. For 2020, it expects the production of passenger cars and vans to be unchanged, at best.

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12 Nov 19
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AMC BSE JAY KEFI OMI SGZ

SP Angel . Morning View

Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) – Hydrological study update | Base Resources (BSE LN) – Presentation to TZMI Congress highlights transition at Kwale in Kenya | Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – Appointment of exploration manager | KEFI Minerals* (KEFI LN) – Encouraging drilling results at Hawiah | Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Sale of Uruguay assets | Renascor Resources* (RNU AU) – Renascor Siviour Graphite Project DFS demonstrates value | Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) BUY – Target Price 88p – Annual results