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18 Jul 18

Quarterly Research Outlook

In Q2, UK equities regained some of their poise after the draw down in Q1, although uncertainty around Brexit continued to grab the headlines. On the back of this, investor concern about the UK economy has been understandable in recent months given a number of negative data points. However, we see reasons for optimism for UK Plc with wage growth supporting an improving outlook for the consumer and business investment holding up. That said, continuing UK political disruption clearly remains a risk going forward.

Companies: AMER EMR HMI JOG PDG ABBY AMS AVON BLVN PIER CGS CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO GTLY GENL GOR GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG LAM MACF MKLW NAH OXIG PCA PKG CAKE PDG RBW REDD RSW RNO RKH ROR SUS SCPA SHG SIV TRAK TRI VTC ZTF

09 Jul 18

New strategy under new management

Metminco (MNC) owns the Quinchia Gold Portfolio located in central Colombia within the prolific Middle Cauca Belt. This region is host to numerous largescale projects including AngloGold’s 28Moz La Colosa and Gran Colombia’s 8Moz Marmato gold deposits. With assay results from its nearby Tesorito gold prospect pending, we expect a re-rating of MNC’s stock on the back of results, confirming extensive gold mineralisation. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 2p per share (1.5p fully diluted).

Companies: Metminco

04 Jul 18

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2Q 2018

This VAR was conceived in 2010 by the Royal Netherlands Football Association (KNVB) but it was seven years later, in April 2017, that it had its professional club competition debut in the A-League in Australia in a match between Melbourne and Adelaide.

Companies: CSP WJG TEF ABBY INL CRST BWY MCS BKG

18 Jul 18

LIBERUM: GAN plc* - First US sports platform deal

GAN has today announced that it is preparing to launch internet sports betting in New Jersey for FanDuel. This is the company's first deal in what is potentially a sizeable new market for GAN.

Companies: GAN Plc

29 Jun 18

The Monthly

We have analysed every IPO on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) between January 2015 and February 2018. Our analysis proves that, as expected, liquidity does dry up after float. The scale varies between markets and sectors.

Companies: OPM AGY ARBB AVCT BNO CMH COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SIXH TRX TON VAL W7L

19 Jul 18

A Successful Campaign

On completion of the upcoming SD-3X well in Egypt, SDX Energy will have completed successful drilling campaigns in both Egypt and Morocco. We believe that there will be a pause in the frenetic activity seen over the last twelve month as management evaluates the results and moves ahead to acquire further 3D seismic data in order to put in place another exciting drilling campaign in 2019 and maintain the momentum.

Companies: Sdx Energy

21 Nov 16

Joy of Techs

ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.

Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD EGS ELCO ESG FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IMG IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP WAND ZOO ARC ONEV

16 Jul 18

HCM UPDATE - 16.07.18 (CPS.L, HAS.L. NAK.L, PAGE.L, RWA.L)

CPL Resources plc (CPS.L, 530p/£144m) Trading update (12.07.18) | Hays plc (HAS.L, 208p/£3,013m) Q4 trading update (13.07.18) | Nakama Group plc (NAK.L, 0.9p/£1.1m) Trading update (11.07.18) | PageGroup plc (PAGE.L, 595p/£1,949m) Q2 trading update (11.07.18) | Robert Walters plc (RWA.L, 754p/£570m) Q2 trading update (10.07.18)

Companies: CPS HAS NAK PAGE RWA

19 Jul 18

Ryanair is taking on a French accent

Ryanair’s unions announced a few weeks ago that they would go on strike, and now they do. While, a week ago, on 12 July, a few flights were cancelled (30 cancelled out of 290 scheduled in Ireland). This second action, due to happen next on 25 and 26 July, will be more important. Indeed, Ryanair expects to cancel more than 12% of the total group’s operations on those days, representing 600 flights and affecting more than 100,000 passengers across Europe. Even though the company maintains that these strikes are unjustified and “achieve nothing other than to disrupt family holidays”, unions haven’t envisaged stopping here. Ryanair’s pilots and cabin crew have denounced working conditions and, while unions are negotiating with the management, no global agreement has been reached. The Irish company, which is Europe’s biggest airline by passenger number, faces its biggest union strike affecting, for the first time, all the European continent. Management has to react quickly and find an agreement with employees so as not to face the same problem as its French rival. As was the case with its pilots from last September to March, Ryanair’s management might need to raise its employees’ wages considerably. The only good point for management is that contrarily to pilots, there is no lack of cabin crews in Europe, which would have given further power to the cabin crews.

Companies: Ryanair Holdings

12 Jul 18

Optical biopsies for increased diagnostic accuracy

We initiate coverage of Mauna Kea Technologies with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price of €4.10 per share. Mauna Kea is a commercial stage medical device company headquartered in Paris, France. The company's main product, Cellvizio, is a market-leading confocal laser endomicroscopy system used for in-depth analysis of cellular microstructure, facilitating the real-time identification of pre-cancerous lesions in anatomical tracts such as the gastrointestinal and pulmonary tract. In addition to Cellvizio, the company markets Cellvizio Dual Band for pre-clinical, non-human research, as well as a range of disposable probes for each of its systems. We believe the company is well-positioned to enter a period of accelerated growth, driven mainly by Mauna Kea's new business model in the US and improved reimbursement structures for procedures involving Cellvizio. We forecast strong revenue growth at a 2018E-2022E revenue CAGR of 27% and expect profitability from 2022E.

Companies: Mauna Kea Technologies SAS

13 Jul 18

Positive read-across from BAN2401 Phase II data

Eisai / Biogen recently reported positive top-line data for the 856-patient Phase II trial Study 201 for the anti-amyloid beta ("Abeta") protofibril mAb BAN2401 in early Alzheimer's disease ("AD"). This is the first time a late-stage trial in AD shows disease-modifying effects with regard to both Abeta reduction in the brain and an improvement of clinical function. Importantly, the data supports the Abeta hypothesis for AD therapy and is a much-needed development following a string of late-stage failures. This is good news for Probiodrug, whose lead asset PQ912 has a unique mechanism of action that inhibits the formation of toxic products of Abeta without interfering with important physiological processes. We understand that Probiodrug is exploring multiple options to finance the PQ912 Phase IIb trial that is expected to start enrolling patients in Q4/2018E. We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation.

Companies: Probiodrug

13 Jul 18

A convertible bond and potential options for existing shareholders

Crossject announced the principle of granting of free options (“BSA”) to existing shareholders (to compensate for the fact the ones granted in February could not be exercised) as well as the issue of another convertible bond (€2.5m). The convertible bond (maturity two years after issuance) will not bear interest and Gemme Ventures, the company’s historic shareholder, will contribute €0.8m to the total subscription. The subscription price will be 92% of nominal value and the conversion price will be the lowest between €3.36 and a weighted average share price less 10% prior to the conversion.

Companies: Crossject

16 Jul 18

FLASH: Good flow rate at South Disouq

The SD-4X well flowed at a maximum stabilized flow rate of 30.4 mmcf/d on a 50/64” choke.

Companies: Sdx Energy

19 Jul 18

The long arm of BASF

BASF’s outage of the citral plant at the end of October 2017 (declaration of Force Majeure) still impacts the value chain and burdens Fragrance’s profitability as these businesses have to buy stock for any(?) price in order to secure sourcing. The impact from which has been stronger than expected and profitability in H1 came in lower than expected. Consensus was broadly met.

Companies: Givaudan

19 Jul 18

Q2: Snus remain strong

A very good quarter driven by snus in Scandinavia and outside the region. We expect to upgrade our profitability forecast for the Snus segment following the upgraded guidance.

Companies: Swedish Match

24 Apr 18

Executive interview - Takung Art

07 Jun 18

Executive interview - Thin Film Electronics

01 May 18

Base Resources: Overview

20 Apr 18

Bitesize briefing – AJ Lucas Group

10 Aug 17

Executive interview - 4SC

21 Mar 18

Bitesize briefing - Auriant Mining

14 Jun 16

Talking Stock: Peak Asset Management’s Niv Dagan comments on markets and opportunities

21 Mar 18

Bitesize briefing – Vermillion Energy

27 May 15

Executive Interview - KTG Energie (German version)

20 Mar 18

VolitionRx: Results from asymptomatic CRC trial reported

09 Nov 17

Capital Network's Lionel Therond on TAG Oil

02 Mar 18

VolitionRX reports their Full Year 2017 Earnings

05 Jan 17

Executive Interview - Touchstone Innovations

26 Feb 18

VolitionRx Limited Announces Interim Results from 680-Subject Clinical Trial in Colorectal Cancer

29 Nov 16

Executive Interview - Canacol

Latest Content

Boliden

Reasonable Q2 results; no major concerns at the moment

Despite a maintenance shutdown, waning price tailwinds, weaker (mining) volumes and cost pressure, Boliden did well to achieve healthy operating profits – although somewhat behind the Street’s estimates. While margin normalisation is inevitable (given the unjustified pricing gains in the past), the operating performance is nevertheless expected to remain healthy – thereby helping sustain Boliden’s best-in-class stakeholder returns and rewards. A dominant exposure to Europe, where prospects are promising, is an added advantage.

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20 Jul 18
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Atlas Copco

Strong quarter but mixed outlook

Atlas Copco reported a strong quarter, including 10% organic growth in orders and 11% organic growth in revenues, coupled with an operating margin of 22.2%. However, although the company expects demand from the Customer segment to remain at a high level, it also added a bit of cautiousness on Semiconductor Equipment which is expected to be somewhat lower in the near term.

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20 Jul 18
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KONE Corporation

H1 18: willing to grow but not necessarily through a combination with Thyssenkrupp

Concerning the growing uncertainty due to the increase of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US from the Trump administration, there are some risks for Kone from 2019 onwards, in our opinion. France, one of top 5 markets, is seeing a positive development in the market. We will reduce our EBIT margin recovery expectation and go for growing revenues in FY19 but a stable EBIT margin compared to FY18. This could trigger a change in recommendation from Reduce to Sell.

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20 Jul 18
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NV Bekaert

Profit warning harms the company's margin expansion story

Bekaert issued a profit warning on its FY18 profit margin which is likely to be substantially lower than expected (20% below market consensus) while the FY18 EBIT should be lower than last year’s. The company cited many reasons including pricing pressure, the slow recovery of Bridon and changes to trade policies. The warning is disturbing and leadd to a lack of visibility.

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20 Jul 18
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Telia Company

Take advantage of the acquisitions at high prices weighing on the stock

A correct Q2 in line with expectations (in particular EBITDA growth due to the satisfactory progress of Telia’s cost-cutting programme of SEK1.1bn). But following the announcement in parallel this week of the acquisition of TDC’s Norwegian business (to be present on the fixed side in Norway) and of Bonnier Broadcasting (to move toward TV content in Scandinavia) for SEK30bn, the stock is down by 6% since the beginning of the week. We believe it’s an opportunity to buy the stock.

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20 Jul 18
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BioMerieux

Q2 performance satisfactory

After a strong start to the year, the Q2 performance was satisfactory. Acceleration in growth in the industrial applications and clinical microbiology businesses were the key highlights of the quarter. However, fierce competition weighed on the immunoassays division and the segment traded in the red during the quarter.

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20 Jul 18
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Hermes International SCA

Forever rosy Hermès

Hermès reported no surprises in Q2. Sales were up by 11.6% at CER in Q2 and by 11.2% in H1. The operating margin should be close to last year’s level.

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20 Jul 18
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Thales

Strong operating performance, as usual, but no guidance upgrade yet

Thales reported very strong H1 results specifically on the bottom-line side. Sales grew in line with expectations but the EBIT jumped by 30%, mainly supported by the Defence & Security division which displayed an almost 12% EBIT margin. The negative point came from the cash flow generation that has been affected by the WC requirements which strongly increased in H1 18. Despite strong results and slightly higher space orders, the group has not raised its FY guidance.

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20 Jul 18
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SSAB

Q2 18: fairly good, but the market had (too?) high expectations

Q2 revenues reached SEK19,263m (+12.6%), EBITDA SEK2,582m (+19.2%), EBIT SEK1,630m (+35.2%) and net profit SEK1,313m (+48%). Net debt at the end of Q1 was SEK11.9bn (vs SEK11.4bn in Q1 and SEK11.6bn by year-end 2017). The outlook for Q3 calls for an unchanged strong demand for heavy plate in North America, with a seasonal slowdown in Europe. As a result, shipments will be up at SSAB Americas and down in Europe, with prices higher in Americas and Special Steels and unchanged in Europe.

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