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Broker research, valuations, & analysis on other stocks

  • 21 Oct 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP ESRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 02 Jul 19
Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 11 Jul 19
Diversification and scale for online success

The global online gaming market generated c £40bn of gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2018 and newly regulating markets (the US) are expected to contribute to 7% CAGR to 2023 (according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC)). However, while regulated markets have provided significant opportunities for operators to date, government intervention remains a constant threat and legislation is tightening. Some mature markets (notably the UK) have been raising taxes and implementing regulatory burdens, which increases the cost of business. In our view, success will depend on a combination of scale, diversification, proprietary technology and a strong balance sheet. Many of the 12 operators in this report should benefit from these dynamics and sector valuations remain attractive, at 12.6x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 6.0% dividend yield for FY19.

Companies: 888 ACX BETSB ORPH GVC GYS OPAP PTEC RNK WMH

  • 14 Jan 20
Ahead of a good publication

Dialog has reported its preliminary unaudited results and cash figures for Q4 which beat both guidance and consensus at mid-point. Even though this will not justify an upgrade on our side, we keep positive on the stock and expect a strong Q4 publication on 4 March. This is also a positive read-across for electronic consumers and mainly Apple-exposed stocks such as AMS and STM.

Companies: Dialog Semiconductor
  • 28 Mar 19
Litigation, litigation, litigation

Within this note we look to build upon our existing legal sector coverage of Anexo*, Gordon Dadds*, Gateley, Knights, Keystone, Rosenblatt and NAHL to include the litigation funders Burford Capital, Manolete Partners and Litigation Capital Management.

Companies: ANX BUR IMF JIL LIT MANO RBGP

  • 21 Oct 19
Q3 19: not bad!

The Q3 results were better than expected (and than announced by the company after Q2). In particular, the group’s order intake and revenues are more or less flat on Q2, and markedly up on last year. Margins remained very decent, even if supported by the currency impact. The business remains impressive… and the stock not a bargain.

Companies: Atlas Copco
  • 28 Oct 19
Q3 19: good set of results

Vinci posted a good trading update. However, risks are mounting in real estate, in our opinion. Hopefully, a crash will not take place without a sharp increase in interest rates and on top of that Vinci Immobilier is only a small share of the group’s revenue contribution. Following this earnings release, we expect no change in our Add recommendation.

Companies: Vinci
  • 14 Jan 20
FY19 pushed up by Europe and US improvements (finally)

Organic sales growth came in above market expectations (+6.1% organically vs. 5.8% consensus), especially thanks to a strong performance in Europe which was a good surprise. Broadly, commercial pressure persisted but the chocolate market worldwide slightly recovered (especially in terms of premium products), showing positive momentum. At the group level, the difficult environment in several markets (such as HK and Latin America) has been offset by strong European results and improvements in North America.

Companies: CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT-REG
  • 14 Jan 20
Management now expects a sizeable 2019 pre-tax loss

Salzgitter has released regular profit warnings during the course of 2019. It now uses the current weak environment to write off another €200m of the group’s assets. As a result, the pre-tax loss is now expected to amount to €250-280m.

Companies: Salzgitter
  • 14 Jan 20
Paion - Acacia to sell ByFavo in US

Acacia Pharma will sell ByFavo (remimazolam) in the US after a deal with Cosmo (Paion’s Switzerland-based US partner). Cosmo estimates 24.5m endoscopy procedures per year. Acacia may launch its first US product, BARHEMSYS, from mid-2020 but has limited US infrastructure and, as yet, no salesforce. We are updating our Paion valuation (formerly €317m).

Companies: Paion
  • 16 Jan 20
Strong Q4, but some uncertainty on the profitability line

Beiersdorf’s preliminary FY sales figures were above our expectations. Consumer continued its strong performance, driven by La Prairie and Nivea. tesa was also better than expected as Q4 came in unchanged yoy. Despite the confirmation of the group’s EBIT margin, the clarification ‘from ongoing operations’ raises suspicions. The recent acquisition of the former Bayer brand Coppertone might additionally burden the margin as the line was already brought down by the investments in future growth.

Companies: Beiersdorf
  • 16 Jan 20
Very promising numbers

Swissquote announced yesterday both revenues and the pre-tax margin for 2019. The two numbers are above guidance at CHF230m and CHF50m, respectively. Management confirmed its guidance for 2022 and the full report will be available on 17 March. Swissquote was up 10% yesterday is up 3.5% today.

Companies: Swissquote Group Holding
  • 17 Jan 20
Order-intake rises in Q3

Alstom ended Q3 FY19/20 on a positive note. While the revenue performance was mediocre (as expected), the robust order-intake lifted the group’s existing order-book to a record €43bn – equivalent to around five years of its annual turnover. Management has maintained the FY19/20 as well as the mid-term outlook.

Companies: Alstom
  • 17 Jan 20
As expected, vehicle deliveries fell in 2019

The group’s worldwide deliveries fell by 3.4% or 131k to 3.75m last year. Excluding deliveries of the Chinese joint-ventures, the number also fell by 3.4% or 127k to 3.59m. We had expected a worldwide number of 3.77m, i.e. the discrepancy is only marginal. Excluding the CKDs delivered to Iran in 2018, the rate of decline was 0.8%.

Companies: Renault
  • 17 Jan 20
An enabling environment (Swissquote Group Holding)

An enabling environment OPINION CHANGE CHANGE IN OPINIONBuy vs Reduce CHANGE IN EPS2019 : CHF 2.91 vs 2.72 +6.96% 2020 : CHF 3.72 vs 3.05 +21.9% Following Swissquote's press release on 15 January regarding its revenues and pre-tax profit, we adjust our numbers for 2019 and going into 2020 and 2021. Revenues were indeed higher than our expectations and management confirmed its ambitious guidance for 2022 at the same time. As financial markets are enjoying a strong momentum, we find it ever more appropriate to increase our expectations and get closer to management's guidance (CHF320m revenues, CHF100m pre-tax profit and CHF36bn assets under custoday expected in 2022). More details are available in a Latest we published on 16 January. CHANGE IN NAVCHF 59.4 vs 52.8 +12.4% Our NAV is based on operating profit per division (securities trading and leveraged FX). As we are increasing our numbers going into 2021 and 2022, our NAV mechanically increases. CHANGE IN DCFCHF 73.2 vs 60.9 +20.2% As we have increased our EPS expectations for the next years, the DCF (which is earnings-dependent) is mechanically increased (all else being equal).

Companies: Swissquote Group Holding
  • 19 Dec 19
Executive interview - Orexo at DNB Conference
executive-interview-orexo-at-dnb-conference-19-12-2019
  • 09 Dec 19
Executive interview - mVISE at EKF 2019
executive-interview-mvise-at-ekf-2019-09-12-2019
  • 18 Dec 19
Executive interview - Brighter
executive-interview-brighter-18-12-2019
  • 09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Expedeon at EKF 2019
executive-interview-expedeon-at-ekf-2019-09-12-2019
  • 21 Mar 18
Bitesize briefing – Vermillion Energy
bitesize-briefing-vermillion-energy-21-03-2018
  • 09 Dec 19
Executive interview - 2G Energy at EKF 2019
executive-interview-2g-energy-at-ekf-2019-09-12-2019
  • 17 Dec 19
Executive interview - OTC Markets Group
executive-interview-otc-markets-group-17-12-2019
  • 09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Magforce at EKF 2019
executive-interview-magforce-at-ekf-2019-09-12-2019
  • 13 Nov 19
Executive interview - VolitionRX discusses Q319 results and provides a business update
executive-interview-volitionrx-discusses-q319-results-and-provides-a-business-update-13-11-2019
  • 09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Nanogate at EKF 2019
executive-interview-nanogate-at-ekf-2019-09-12-2019
  • 05 Jan 17
Executive Interview - Touchstone Innovations
executive-interview-touchstone-innovations-05-01-2017
  • 09 Dec 19
Executive interview - Finlab at EKF 2019
executive-interview-finlab-at-ekf-2019-09-12-2019
  • 09 Jan 20
Verde Agritech pushes greener potash saying farming must change
verde-agritech-pushes-greener-potash-saying-farming-must-change
  • 06 Dec 19
Executive interview - Tinexta at EKF 2019
executive-interview-tinexta-at-ekf-2019-06-12-2019
  • 29 Oct 18
Bitesize briefing - Endeavour Mining
bitesize-briefing-endeavour-mining-29-10-2018

Latest Content

Encouraging rebound in Jewellery

Richemont has released a reassuring Q3 trading update. The trading performance was better than expected in all regions except for Japan. The double-digit sales progression in mainland China and Korea have fully offset the continued decline in Hong Kong. The strong recovery of flagship jewellery brands Cartier and VCA after a disappointing previous quarter has confirmed the attractiveness of the high-end jewellery market.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont

  • 17 Jan 20
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Encouraging rebound in Jewellery

Richemont has released a reassuring Q3 trading update. The trading performance was better than expected in all regions except for Japan. The double-digit sales progression in mainland China and Korea have fully offset the continued decline in Hong Kong. The strong recovery of flagship jewellery brands Cartier and VCA after a disappointing previous quarter has confirmed the attractiveness of the high-end jewellery market.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont

  • 17 Jan 20
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Lignite phase-out: a not that accommodating compensation

The German government has provided more details on the timing and level of compensation for the accelerated lignite phase-out: the RWE installed capacity of lignite is expected to decrease from 8,720MW at the end of 2019, to 5,900MW in 2022, 3,800MW in 2029 and 0MW in 2038. The compensation over 15 years will be €2.6bn, while the group estimates the overall financial impact to be around €3.5bn.

RWE

  • 17 Jan 20
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Lignite phase-out: a not that accommodating compensation

The German government has provided more details on the timing and level of compensation for the accelerated lignite phase-out: the RWE installed capacity of lignite is expected to decrease from 8,720MW at the end of 2019, to 5,900MW in 2022, 3,800MW in 2029 and 0MW in 2038. The compensation over 15 years will be €2.6bn, while the group estimates the overall financial impact to be around €3.5bn.

RWE

  • 17 Jan 20
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Auriant Mining - Tardan CIL de-risks Kara-Beldyr

After a few months of delays, Auriant Mining’s Tardan CIL project has now been operating since mid-November. Production guidance for FY19 is 550kg from the Tardan heap leach operation and 150kg from the CIL operation plus c 64.2kg from alluvial operations at Solcocon (total 764.2kg, or 24,570oz). With the CIL plant at full capacity, however, this is expected to increase sharply, to c 29,272oz per year (average) at steady-state, before being supplemented by production of another c 64,041oz per year (average) from Kara-Beldyr from FY24.

AURIANT MINING

  • 17 Jan 20
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Auriant Mining - Tardan CIL de-risks Kara-Beldyr

After a few months of delays, Auriant Mining’s Tardan CIL project has now been operating since mid-November. Production guidance for FY19 is 550kg from the Tardan heap leach operation and 150kg from the CIL operation plus c 64.2kg from alluvial operations at Solcocon (total 764.2kg, or 24,570oz). With the CIL plant at full capacity, however, this is expected to increase sharply, to c 29,272oz per year (average) at steady-state, before being supplemented by production of another c 64,041oz per year (average) from Kara-Beldyr from FY24.

AURIANT MINING

  • 17 Jan 20
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An enabling environment (Swissquote Group Holding)

An enabling environment OPINION CHANGE CHANGE IN OPINIONBuy vs Reduce CHANGE IN EPS2019 : CHF 2.91 vs 2.72 +6.96% 2020 : CHF 3.72 vs 3.05 +21.9% Following Swissquote's press release on 15 January regarding its revenues and pre-tax profit, we adjust our numbers for 2019 and going into 2020 and 2021. Revenues were indeed higher than our expectations and management confirmed its ambitious guidance for 2022 at the same time. As financial markets are enjoying a strong momentum, we find it ever more appropriate to increase our expectations and get closer to management's guidance (CHF320m revenues, CHF100m pre-tax profit and CHF36bn assets under custoday expected in 2022). More details are available in a Latest we published on 16 January. CHANGE IN NAVCHF 59.4 vs 52.8 +12.4% Our NAV is based on operating profit per division (securities trading and leveraged FX). As we are increasing our numbers going into 2021 and 2022, our NAV mechanically increases. CHANGE IN DCFCHF 73.2 vs 60.9 +20.2% As we have increased our EPS expectations for the next years, the DCF (which is earnings-dependent) is mechanically increased (all else being equal).

Swissquote Group Holding

  • 17 Jan 20
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An enabling environment (Swissquote Group Holding)

An enabling environment OPINION CHANGE CHANGE IN OPINIONBuy vs Reduce CHANGE IN EPS2019 : CHF 2.91 vs 2.72 +6.96% 2020 : CHF 3.72 vs 3.05 +21.9% Following Swissquote's press release on 15 January regarding its revenues and pre-tax profit, we adjust our numbers for 2019 and going into 2020 and 2021. Revenues were indeed higher than our expectations and management confirmed its ambitious guidance for 2022 at the same time. As financial markets are enjoying a strong momentum, we find it ever more appropriate to increase our expectations and get closer to management's guidance (CHF320m revenues, CHF100m pre-tax profit and CHF36bn assets under custoday expected in 2022). More details are available in a Latest we published on 16 January. CHANGE IN NAVCHF 59.4 vs 52.8 +12.4% Our NAV is based on operating profit per division (securities trading and leveraged FX). As we are increasing our numbers going into 2021 and 2022, our NAV mechanically increases. CHANGE IN DCFCHF 73.2 vs 60.9 +20.2% As we have increased our EPS expectations for the next years, the DCF (which is earnings-dependent) is mechanically increased (all else being equal).

Swissquote Group Holding

  • 17 Jan 20
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As expected, vehicle deliveries fell in 2019

The group’s worldwide deliveries fell by 3.4% or 131k to 3.75m last year. Excluding deliveries of the Chinese joint-ventures, the number also fell by 3.4% or 127k to 3.59m. We had expected a worldwide number of 3.77m, i.e. the discrepancy is only marginal. Excluding the CKDs delivered to Iran in 2018, the rate of decline was 0.8%.

Renault

  • 17 Jan 20
  • -
As expected, vehicle deliveries fell in 2019

The group’s worldwide deliveries fell by 3.4% or 131k to 3.75m last year. Excluding deliveries of the Chinese joint-ventures, the number also fell by 3.4% or 127k to 3.59m. We had expected a worldwide number of 3.77m, i.e. the discrepancy is only marginal. Excluding the CKDs delivered to Iran in 2018, the rate of decline was 0.8%.

Renault

  • 17 Jan 20
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Order-intake rises in Q3

Alstom ended Q3 FY19/20 on a positive note. While the revenue performance was mediocre (as expected), the robust order-intake lifted the group’s existing order-book to a record €43bn – equivalent to around five years of its annual turnover. Management has maintained the FY19/20 as well as the mid-term outlook.

Alstom

  • 17 Jan 20
  • -
Order-intake rises in Q3

Alstom ended Q3 FY19/20 on a positive note. While the revenue performance was mediocre (as expected), the robust order-intake lifted the group’s existing order-book to a record €43bn – equivalent to around five years of its annual turnover. Management has maintained the FY19/20 as well as the mid-term outlook.

Alstom

  • 17 Jan 20
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Very promising numbers

Swissquote announced yesterday both revenues and the pre-tax margin for 2019. The two numbers are above guidance at CHF230m and CHF50m, respectively. Management confirmed its guidance for 2022 and the full report will be available on 17 March. Swissquote was up 10% yesterday is up 3.5% today.

Swissquote Group Holding

  • 16 Jan 20
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Very promising numbers

Swissquote announced yesterday both revenues and the pre-tax margin for 2019. The two numbers are above guidance at CHF230m and CHF50m, respectively. Management confirmed its guidance for 2022 and the full report will be available on 17 March. Swissquote was up 10% yesterday is up 3.5% today.

Swissquote Group Holding

  • 16 Jan 20
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Strong Q4, but some uncertainty on the profitability line

Beiersdorf’s preliminary FY sales figures were above our expectations. Consumer continued its strong performance, driven by La Prairie and Nivea. tesa was also better than expected as Q4 came in unchanged yoy. Despite the confirmation of the group’s EBIT margin, the clarification ‘from ongoing operations’ raises suspicions. The recent acquisition of the former Bayer brand Coppertone might additionally burden the margin as the line was already brought down by the investments in future growth.

Beiersdorf

  • 16 Jan 20
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Strong Q4, but some uncertainty on the profitability line

Beiersdorf’s preliminary FY sales figures were above our expectations. Consumer continued its strong performance, driven by La Prairie and Nivea. tesa was also better than expected as Q4 came in unchanged yoy. Despite the confirmation of the group’s EBIT margin, the clarification ‘from ongoing operations’ raises suspicions. The recent acquisition of the former Bayer brand Coppertone might additionally burden the margin as the line was already brought down by the investments in future growth.

Beiersdorf

  • 16 Jan 20
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SP Angel . Morning View

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – Swedish compensation claim to be handled by Chancellor of Justice in Sweden | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Sanankoro scoping study delivers attractive economics | Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) – Exploration update | Shanta Gold (SHG LN) – Robust Q4 results conclude strong FY19 year | Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Ryan McDermott moves into CEO role as company heads towards production from Red Star project.

AURA CORA SGZ SHG PXC

  • 16 Jan 20
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SP Angel . Morning View

Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – Swedish compensation claim to be handled by Chancellor of Justice in Sweden | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Sanankoro scoping study delivers attractive economics | Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) – Exploration update | Shanta Gold (SHG LN) – Robust Q4 results conclude strong FY19 year | Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) – Ryan McDermott moves into CEO role as company heads towards production from Red Star project.

AURA CORA SGZ SHG PXC

  • 16 Jan 20
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Double-digit delivery growth in December was kind of window-dressing

The VW Group’s European registration numbers have been strong in the last month (based on currently available numbers for Germany, France, and Italy). These enormous growth rates were now underpinned by delivery numbers. Worldwide deliveries of cars and trucks increased by 13% to 1.03m in the last month which brought the ytd number to 10.97m, an increase of 1.3%. According to management, 140k EVs were delivered which represent about 1.3% of worldwide deliveries.

Volkswagen

  • 15 Jan 20
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Double-digit delivery growth in December was kind of window-dressing

The VW Group’s European registration numbers have been strong in the last month (based on currently available numbers for Germany, France, and Italy). These enormous growth rates were now underpinned by delivery numbers. Worldwide deliveries of cars and trucks increased by 13% to 1.03m in the last month which brought the ytd number to 10.97m, an increase of 1.3%. According to management, 140k EVs were delivered which represent about 1.3% of worldwide deliveries.

Volkswagen

  • 15 Jan 20
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