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28 Mar 19

Litigation, litigation, litigation

Within this note we look to build upon our existing legal sector coverage of Anexo*, Gordon Dadds*, Gateley, Knights, Keystone, Rosenblatt and NAHL to include the litigation funders Burford Capital, Manolete Partners and Litigation Capital Management.

Companies: ANX BUR IMF JIL LIT MANO RBGP

21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

14 May 19

Q1 was impacted by mild winter, but full-year guidance is confirmed

EBITDA was down 4.8%, broadly in line with expectations, due to lower volumes after the warmer winter and a timing effect in the Client Solution segment. The negative items are expected to be offset during the year; thus guidance for the full year is confirmed.

Companies: Engie

14 May 19

VolitionRx - Multiple partnerships enable diversification

VolitionRx released its Q119 financial results last week and provided an operational update at the capital markets day on 9 April at the NYSE. Among other areas, VolitionRx highlighted the assay upgrade progress, which was one of the main operational goals in 2018. Although this caused delays to original commercial product development timelines, VolitionRx emphasises the current product-grade Nu.QTM assays excel when it comes reliability and reproducibility. The first batch of proof-of-concept data with the new assays in detection of colorectal and lung cancers was released in March 2019 and larger trials should follow. The other CMD highlights include detailed presentations by the invited KOLs on the newer R&D areas Nu.QTM Capture and Nu.Q Vet. Our valuation is $215m or $5.46/share.

Companies: VOLITIONRX

15 May 19

Higher pricing propels profitability

K+S reported a good set of figures, confirming our view. We see the cautious delivery of figures in the adjusted reporting structure as uninstructive. Consensus was outdone here and there. Sales and profitability were fuelled by higher prices in Q1, whereas the dynamics of the operating unit Europe+ was held back by lower volumes.

Companies: K&S

16 May 19

Snow White needs a prince

Showing activity for the sake of showing activity? We hope this will not become the new CEO’s mantra. Despite Beiersdorf’s huge cash pile, management will quickly learn one can spend a euro just once. We believe the announced acquisition of Bayer’s odd brand Coppertone is not a bargain but rather a perfect fit for the established businesses. However, we have some doubts on the business volume that has been provided.

Companies: Beiersdorf

16 May 19

Mondo TV - Tracking on trading

Mondo TV’s Q119 figures are as flagged, tracking to its December 2018 business plan. Our revenue and earnings numbers are unchanged. YooHoo to the Rescue is now airing globally on Netflix, giving a strong start to management’s ambitions to broaden geographic revenue spread. The group has settled with three of the four Asian customers that withdrew in H218, but remains in dispute with one. It has also disclosed that it is subject to a further tax authority investigation, which it is confident will find in its favour. A further mark down in the share price, now off the lows, leaves the valuation at a deep discount to peers and the DCF.

Companies: Mondo Tv

15 May 19

Nissan contributed an at-equity loss to Renault’s Q1 earnings

During the years from 2013 to 2018, Nissan’s at-equity profit contribution was at least €1.5bn and it culminated in a contribution of €2.8bn in 2017. All of this has gone, most probably as a result of the turmoil at the helm of the company. Whereas Renault’s underlying fundamentals have hardly suffered, Nissan has.

Companies: Renault

15 May 19

Positive start to the year

Ageas posted an 8% increase in its inflows to €12,808m, driven by both the Life and Non-Life businesses. The net result was up 1.2% to €251m, saved by lower losses from the General Account (€-7m vs. €-52m in Q1 18). While the decrease in the Non-Life business was expected, as it is under transformation, the Life earnings were hit by timing differences on capital gains. The Solvency II ratio stood at 194%. Released figures are broadly in line with estimates.

Companies: Ageas

15 May 19

Good Q1 backed by higher regulated revenues

Hera realised a good first quarter thanks to M&A operations in the Gas segment, cost cutting in the Water Cycle segment and higher tariffs on regulated services. Net debt was broadly stable (including the IFRS 16 effect), implying a comfortable 12m rolling net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.5x.

Companies: HERA

15 May 19

Good Q1 backed by higher regulated revenues

Snam published a good set of Q1 results. The Transportation segment benefits from higher regulated WACC, the decrease in Storage’s EBIT, due to volumes, is negligible at the group level. Operating cash flow largely covers investments, allowing the group to deliver a free cash flow of €634m and to reduce its debt.

Companies: Snam

16 May 19

Strong momentum

Euronext disclosed a good set of results this morning with an EBITDA 6% above expectations. Thiis will support Euronext’s share price, together with the coming acquisition of the Norwegian Stock Exchange, Oslo Bors VPS.

Companies: Euronext

16 May 19

Addition to Additives

The announced acquisition of ArrMaz has a reasonable strategic rationale, but it also stresses Arkema’s gross debt. We do not expect any large issues that may prevent approval from the anti-trust authorities or affect financing. All in all, we value the announced deal as positive, despite being quite expensive.

Companies: Arkema

16 May 19

Q1 19: strong start to the year

The company posted a rather good set of results for Q1 19, which make us believe in the ability of management to deliver low double-digit growth in EPS over the FY19 and c.€1.1bn net profit. The Buy rating is confirmed.

Companies: ACS Actividades de Constrccn y Srvcos

17 May 19

Strong closing of FY18 sales and higher margin dilution from online

Richemont has reported better sales but lower than expected margins in FY18. Comparable sales were up 8%, boosted by the acceleration of watchmakers and the stronger wholesale network. America and Asia have grown by double-digit rates. The operating margin was down 280bp to 13.9% due to higher profit dilution from the online business.

Companies: Compagnie Financiere Richemont

24 Apr 19

Executive Interview - VolitionRx

08 Apr 19

Executive interview - Claranova

12 Apr 19

Executive interview - Selvita

26 Mar 19

Healthcare - Rebate reform could be just what the doctor ordered

Premium

21 Mar 19

Executive interview - Actinogen Medical

11 Mar 19

Africa Energy Corp - Company Overview

15 Mar 19

Executive interview - VolitionRx Discusses FY18 Results and Provides a Business Update

06 Mar 19

Executive interview – ROVI

08 Nov 18

Executive interview - VolitionRx Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Review

28 Feb 19

Executive interview – Cantargia

21 Mar 18

Bitesize briefing – Vermillion Energy

20 Feb 19

Bitesize briefing - Alkane Resources

20 Nov 17

Executive interview - VolitionRx

12 Feb 19

Bitesize briefing - Orexo

08 Apr 19

Executive Interview - Vermilion Energy

Latest Content

HAL Trust

Dredging blast continues, modest growth for consumer assets

Bleak forecasts for Boskalis in 2019; oil prices above $60 support Vopak’s and SBM Offshore’s activities. Optical retail, heading for modest growth, reaffirmed its guidance.

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19 May 19
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Sonae SGPS

In good shape

The good performance in the food retail and the full consolidation of Sonae Sierra are improving the holding company’s top-line and profitability, the discount to NAV retracted to 18.9% but remains attractive.

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19 May 19
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Renault

Senard and Bolloré join Nissan’s Supervisory Board

After the arrest of former CEO Carlos Ghosn in late 2018 in Japan, the Alliance has been in turmoil. Only now has a very first decision been taken by appointing an entirely new Supervisory Board.

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18 May 19
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UNITED CO RUSAL

A weak start to the year

US sanctions were withdrawn in late January 2019. Yet, Rusal’s Q1 results – VAP sales and profitability – were materially weak. While operational normality should be gradually restored, the current market environment poses new (near-term) challenges. Fortunately, the Russian aluminium major seems well-equipped to withstand these headwinds and hence, remains an attractive, though still risky, sector bet.

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17 May 19
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Compagnie Financiere Richemont

Strong closing of FY18 sales and higher margin dilution from online

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17 May 19
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Deutsche Rohstoff

Deutsche Rohstoff - US onshore organic growth

Deutsche Rohstoff’s (DRAG) organic investments, c $145m in FY17 and FY18, helped deliver more than 100% growth in FY18 revenues to €109.1m (€53.7m in FY17). Year-on-year sales growth was supported by a material increase in oil and gas production, which almost doubled to 9.4kboed (from 5.1kboed in FY17), combined with higher price realisations. EBITDA rose more than 250% to €97.9m (€36.1m in FY17), while net income (after minority interests) rose to €13.9m (€7.7m in FY17). DRAG’s key focus remains on its US oil and gas interests, with c $70m of organic and internally funded investment planned in 2019. As a result, DRAG guides to EBITDA in the €25–35m range in FY19 and €55–65m in FY20, reflecting recent divestments and underlying growth from Cub Creek Energy.

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17 May 19
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EDP - Energias de Portugal

Brazilian networks ensure growth after adverse weather conditions for renewables

EDP released a pretty good set of Q1 results. Network EBITDA increased 11%, supported by the Brazilian activities, while the rise in electricity prices partially offset unfavourable weather conditions, recurring EBITDA from renewables was down 6%. The group was able to reduce its opex by 2%. Positive view confirmed.

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17 May 19
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PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL HLDG-PRF

Q1 trading statement does not reveal any hard facts

Nearly all of Porsche SE’s profit is the result of the at-equity contribution from VW plus the negative results from its tiny investments in other operations. In addition, the company itself shows small operating expenses including personnel costs.

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17 May 19
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Vallourec

Q1 19 results: a mixed bag

- Q1 19 results were decent on the P&L front - Volumes, prices and savings have helped - However, cash consumption thus net debt still a worry - Management reaffirmed no issue to take place in FY19 - We are less confident and any market downturn would leave no other choice - In short: not bad but still some way to go

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17 May 19
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HELLENIC PETROLEUM

Q1: decent performance considering the environment

It could have been much worse for Elpe, which, despite the physical constraints associated with the scheduled maintenance (volumes are down 13% qoq at 3.6 mt), reported a 9% qoq decline on its realised margin at $9.3/bbl.

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