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02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

11 Sep 19

La Doria - Investment continues

La Doria continues to post good sales growth, despite the ongoing tough economic backdrop. Organic sales growth of 2.3% in H119 builds on a good H118. The important variables at this time of year are the outcomes of the seasonal campaigns and the corresponding customer negotiations. Raw materials continue to experience inflation, while customers continue to apply downward pressure to prices thus resulting in an unfavourable margin environment. Indeed, the EBITDA margin was down 50bp to 6.5% in H119. Management’s investment programme continues as planned, with €32.5m spent during the period. We leave our forecasts unchanged, and believe the current share price offers a good entry point. Our fair value rises to €14.00 (from €13.60) as we roll forward our DCF.

Companies: La Doria

12 Sep 19

H1 19: guidance maintained, Buy rating confirmed but with a lower target price

The reported figures were good and Bilfinger strives to enhance its business model even more. On top of this, guidance was maintained. Following this earnings release, we expect to keep our recommendation unchanged, albeit with a somewhat lower target price. Indeed, we expect to cut it by some 10%, mainly because of the lower peers valuation following a change in the premium applied from 50% to 20% for the P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

Companies: Bilfinger

01 Jul 16

Hybridan - Small Cap Wrap

AKR Distribution Agreement, AVCT Affimer Binders, AVG Return of Funds, PRSM Interim Results, COG* Distribution Agreement, FISH Placing, FITB* Board Changes, Placing and Loan Capitalisation, FUM Agreements, HCM Phase II, IGE Agreement, LRM Selected, NWF Trading Updated, PLI* Fast Track, SCH Trading Update, TMT* Invests

Companies: AVG PRSM COG FISH FUM LRM NWF PLI SCH TMT AVCT BIDS AKR HCM

21 Aug 19

Bye, bye animals!

The announced divestment of Animal Care looks more like another punch to a staggering boxer, if one compares Bayer’s recent developments to a heavyweight fight. This deal increases the internal imbalance further or, in other words, makes the agro business even stronger. The valuation of the animal health business looks quite high (above the buyer’s one). Interestingly, Animal Care was not reported under discontinued operations (until Q2 19), but impairments related to it were booked in Q2.

Companies: Bayer

13 Sep 19

Passenger numbers at most of Fraport’s airports continued rising in August

Frankfurt is the company’s single most important airport investment and the passenger number increased by 1.7% to 6.92m in the last month which brought the ytd number to 47.5m, an increase of 2.5%.

Companies: Fraport AG Frankfurt Arprt Svcs Wrldwde

14 Jun 17

Double-digit profit growth in Q1

The Zara owner has released strong quarterly figures boosted by favourable market momentum. Q1 sales were up 12.5% in local currencies to €5,569m. Favourable forex moves raised the reported growth to 14.1% and the gross margin to 58.2% (+10bp). The gross profit edged up 14.3% to €3,240m. Tight management of costs has underpinned the margins. The EBITDA margin has strengthened by 40bp to 20% and EBITDA came to €1,113m (+17%). The operating profit was up 18% to €834m, i.e. an operating margin of 15%. Net income amounted to €654m (+18%). The financial position has strengthened further with net cash increasing from €5bn in Q1 16 to €5.7bn.

Companies: Inditex

16 Mar 18

Whitman Howard Morning Mining Summary

Australian spodumene developer Altura Mining (AJM-ASX) announced that it was in discussions to be possibly taken over by its major Chinese shareholder. Assuming £1=AS1.75, the current 44 Australian cent Altura Mining share price implies a Mina do Barroso valuation of £67.5m, nearly 25% higher than our previous Altura Mining read through. Altura is a little further advanced than Savannah, with its Pilgangoora spodumene mine in Western Australia just coming on stream.

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21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH FLTR PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

03 Dec 18

Brexit-immune Getlink?

The share price has posted an almost 10% increase since the beginning of the year. Here we seek to understand why this is so and why there is a high probability that the price will continue to appreciate, despite the Brexit uncertainties.

Companies: Groupe Eurotunnel

14 Feb 19

Prepare for landing

The 2018 performance is not in question, but the current disposal programme is twice as large as in last June. Unibail has chosen to reduce the risk. We consider this as a negative signal for sector.

Companies: UNIBAIL-RODAMCO

14 Feb 19

Fasten your seatbelts

Airbus published a sound set of results, closing a record year in terms of deliveries and revenues. Going forward, the equity story remain intact with increasing deliveries and strong guidance for 2019.

Companies: Airbus

30 Apr 19

Smooth start to the year

Airbus published a sound first quarter, fuelled by: i) higher commercial aircraft deliveries compared to last year, and ii) pricing and profitability improvement from the A320neo and A350XWB programmes. The company maintained its guidance for the full year with, as in 2018, a back-end loaded year.

Companies: Airbus

12 Jun 19

Squeezing costs to preserve margins

Inditex has outperformed market expectations in profits, while its sales were slightly lower than consensus in Q1. Revenue was up 5% and EBITDA edged up 9% excluding the IFRS 16 impact. Q2 to 7 June sales surged by 9.5% at CER.

Companies: Inditex

24 Jun 19

Decent closure to FY18/19; weaker outlook is not a surprise

Colruyt announced FY18/19 results in line with our estimates. The H2 performance was a bit softer as the company witnessed fluctuating promotional pressure in the retail market. We believe Colruyt will continue to make price and promotional investments to sustain the top-line momentum. The margins are likely to remain under pressure in FY19/20. We will trim our estimates but are likely to maintain the stock recommendation.

Companies: Etablissementen Franz Colruyt

13 Aug 19

Executive interview - VolitionRX

30 Jul 19

Bitesize briefing - UmweltBank

16 Sep 19

Executive interview - GESCO

17 Jul 19

Executive interview - Tinexta

25 Jun 19

Executive interview - Alkane Resources

08 May 19

Bitesize briefing - Mytilineos

12 Apr 19

Executive interview - Selvita

24 Apr 19

Executive Interview - VolitionRx

08 Apr 19

Executive Interview - Vermilion Energy

08 Apr 19

Executive interview - Claranova

20 Nov 17

Executive interview - VolitionRx

26 Mar 19

Healthcare - Rebate reform could be just what the doctor ordered

Premium

14 Jun 16

Talking Stock: Peak Asset Management’s Niv Dagan comments on markets and opportunities

21 Mar 19

Executive interview - Actinogen Medical

09 Nov 18

Executive interview - ERM Power

Latest Content

Airbus

Market leader on the largest market

Airbus has released its latest Global Market Forecast, revising upward its assumption for new aircraft deliveries for the next 20 years. Overall, the main KPIs of the industry remain solid and appreciate the leadership position of the company on the “Small” segment, which is expected to represent c.76% of future deliveries.

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18 Sep 19
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H. Lundbeck

Alder’s acquisition reduces Lundbeck’s headache

With the $1.95bn acquisition of Alder (~100% premium), Lundbeck is set to enter (with Eptinezumab) the fast-growing and highly-competitive $4bn migraine space. While the deal would be margin-dilutive in the short term, given higher commercial expenses, the blockbuster potential of Eptinezumab would ensure EPS accretion from 2023. With $3bn still in the bag, another acquisition might be on the cards but, before that happens, the new CEO needs to prove her integration and commercial execution capabilities.

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18 Sep 19
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Chargeurs

H1: organic growth recovery and a brighter outlook

A return to organic growth in the second quarter and the opening of a sophisticated production line in its Protective Films business has set the stage for a recovery in H2. Chargeurs’ continued commitment and keen eye for profitable growth paint an upbeat outlook for 2020, on the way to achieving €1bn turnover by 2021.

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18 Sep 19
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Renault

Year-to-August sales down in every region

The Renault Group has lost market share in the last month (-0.4pp to 3.87%) and ytd (-0.08pp to 4.30%). These shares are based on worldwide car sales although the company is not active in Nafta and hardly so in China. Its Chinese market share is in the vicinity of 0.75%, i.e. its vehicles are little recognised there.

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18 Sep 19
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Nuernberger Beteiligungs

Nurnberger Beteiligungs - Steady progress in unfavourable environment

Nürnberger Beteiligungs (NBG) was able to moderately grow its gross premiums booked on the back of a solid 10% y-o-y increase in new premiums to €266m in H119. Meanwhile, the low interest rate environment dampens NBG’s investment income, with the recent central bank rate decisions suggesting this will continue for now. We note that NBG’s relatively high exposure to unit-linked and disability products somewhat limits the impact of accommodative monetary policy. A cap on fees earned on life insurance contracts is still being discussed in Germany. If introduced, it is likely to constrain new life insurance business.

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18 Sep 19
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Schindler Holding

H1 19: Schindler ought to be the winner of the Kone/ThyssenKrupp merger

With the potential merger of Kone and ThyssenKrupp, there is a high chance that in some countries Kone would have to divest some activities to obtain the competition authorities’ approval for the deal. Much as CRH did in buying assets from LafargeHolcim, Schindler could be selective in buying assets from Kone/ThyssenKrupp. Therefore we believe that Schindler would be the true winner of such a merger and we intend to keep a positive recommendation on the company.

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18 Sep 19
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Delignit

Delignit - Missing a gear

After further positive guidance in April, Delignit’s H119 earnings shortfall (EBITDA down 16%) and full-year profit warning are all the more disappointing. In mitigation, the company has arguably been a victim of its own successful Automotive OEM business in ramping up for special call-offs that may yet materialise, while incurring higher costs than planned for a still potentially transformative motor caravan order. Management now expects 2019 revenue of €64m (ahead of last year but below the original forecast of €70m) and an EBITDA margin between 6% and 7% (originally 9.3%, as in 2018). Its confidence in Delignit’s strategic direction and long-term prospects appears to remain undimmed.

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18 Sep 19
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Exxon Mobil Corporation Petro Matad

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

ExxonMobil (XOM US) (not covered): Oil discovery offshore Guyana | Petro Matad (MATD LN) (not covered): Red Deer-1 well dry & operational update | Equinor (EQNR NO) (not covered) & Aker BP (AKERBP NO) (not covered): Gas discovery in the Norwegian Sea

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17 Sep 19
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Scherzer & Co

Scherzer & Co - Not feeling the broader market recovery (yet)

Scherzer & Co’s (PZS’s) NAV closed H119 flat vs end FY18 and declined 3.5% to the end of August. H119 portfolio performance was dominated by weaker results from GK Software and pre-squeeze-out stagnation in Linde’s share price. These two companies made up c 31% of PZS’s portfolio at the peak in March 2019. €22.8m cash inflow from the Linde squeeze-out allowed for deleveraging and increased PZS’s portfolio of extra compensatory claims (ECS) to €139m. We note that PZS is focused on lesser-known stocks and its short-term performance may at times differ from the broader market.

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