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10 Mar 19

THE MONTHLY March 2019

In the investment world, before MiFID II, essentially every institution talked to every broker, and the whole, professional market could see every research note and the forecasts in detail. This was the ‘Age of Consensus’. Everyone had the same information (well, everyone except retail investors), and this transparency helped share price formation and liquidity

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT CMH CSH DNL GTLY GDR KOOV MCL OXB RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

31 Jan 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

The market has not faced quite so many conflicting challenges for a number of years, whether related to global geopolitics, trade wars, ongoing Eurozone issues or the “will they, won’t they” saga of Brexit. In our Best Ideas, we sought to highlight stocks that present investors with interesting opportunities following recent market moves. Those stocks, we believe, warrant investor attention, in many cases for uncorrelated or stockspecific reasons, regardless of the near-to-medium term market direction. These stocks, in general, represent attractive and well-managed businesses or assets, with share price catalysts and where valuations or recent stock performance provide investors with a good entry point.

Companies: 7DIG ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM MACF MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PARK PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF

18 Mar 19

Cenkos: Salt Lake Potash Ltd - Lake Way Resource

Salt Lake Potash released the initial ‘whole-of-lake' resource for the Company's Lake Way project. The total Mineral Resource Estimate at Lake Way has increased to 73 million tonnes of SOP calculated using Total Porosity and 8.2Mt of SOP calculated using Drainable Porosity. On a drainable basis, the overall resource estimate for Lake Way is now 8.2Mt of contained SOP at a grade of 15.1kg/m3, with around 3.2Mt, or 40% of this, hosted within the Measured and Indicated categories. Based on our estimated initial production of 200ktpa, the Measured and Indicated drainable resource would sustain a life of 16 years, with a further 25 years' life in the Inferred category to be further proved up. Management are subsequently investigating larger production scenarios for the project (beyond the 50ktpa demo plant) and expect to release an initial technical study on the results by the end of Q2/19. We feel that Lake Way has the potential to support a larger scale SOP operation and the next step to 200ktpa may not be the last. Construction activities have progressed with the initial holding ponds now taking shape, which should enable Salt Lake Potash to commence de-watering the Williamson Open Pit towards the end of Q2/19. The Company is focused on rapidly progressing the development of the Lake Way Project to become the first SOP production operation in Australia. Lake Way has the highest-grade SOP brine resource in Australia and the best infrastructure solution of potential Australian brine SOP producers. We feel that given the Resource and management's incentives, Salt Lake will probably progress direct to an economic 200ktpa plant rather than the 50ktpa demo plant, but this has not been confirmed.

Companies: Salt Lake Potash

05 Feb 19

THE MONTHLY February 2019

This Investment Research Paper addresses the issue of renewable power generation in the UK and in mainland Europe, which – after the deep-seated financial crisis of 2008/09 and the ensuing recession – now has better prospects of achieving critical mass. It also considers investment perspectives.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BUR CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

15 Mar 19

Beginning of the accelerating growth trajectory

Korian experienced a strong performance in 2018. The accelerating top-line growth was mainly driven by healthy organic growth and mostly helped by the increased contributions from M&A. The limited margin decline in France has been offset by the good improvement in Germany and synergies achieved from the recently added sites. Thanks to the accelerating external growth, the group has upgraded its 2019 guidance and mid-term outlook.

Companies: Korian

14 Jan 19

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2018

‘From the deserts of East Ham to the gardens of Cottenham’, the UK Housebuilding Sector was whacked to the tune of 27% in 2018; and not one share price (out of 18) rose on the London Stock Exchange.

Companies: BWY CRST BDEV WJG PSN RDW TW/ MCS CSP TEF BKG ABBY GLE

12 Mar 19

Evolva - New focus starts to bear fruit

Evolva’s FY18 results demonstrate that the actions undertaken over the past 18 months are starting to come through into the numbers. Innovation has led to the expansion of ingredients systems with new variants and new markets, and the product pipeline continues to develop. The customer pipeline is progressing, and the maiden royalty payment from EverSweet was received, albeit small. The EPA registration of nootkatone for pest control applications was delayed by the US government shutdown, but is expected in the next couple of months. Our fair value reduces marginally to CHF0.56/share from CHF0.58/share.

Companies: Evolva Holding

13 Mar 19

Good 2018 numbers, but we had expected slightly more

Adidas increased its turnover by 3.3% to €21.9bn (+8% currency-adjusted) while EBIT was up by 14% to €2.37bn and net earnings by 55% to €1.70bn. These numbers are very much in line with consensus expectations while our profit projections were slightly higher. Management proposes a dividend of €3.35 compared to our projected €3.30 vs. the previous year’s €2.60.

Companies: adidas

14 Mar 19

FLASH: 4Q18 results

4Q18 production in Turkey was 623 boe/d with a 2018 exit rate of 777 boe/d. The reference gas price in Turkey has increased to C$9.18/mcf in 4Q18 (C$6.65/mcf in 3Q18). At YE18, the company held C$59.5 mm net working capital (and no debt). YE18 2P reserves were 7.35 mmboe. At Inanli-1, fracking and testing operations are expected to commence in early 2Q19 and could extend throughout the quarter.

Companies: VALEURA ENERGY

15 Mar 19

Earnings fell in 2018, but not as sharp as expected

Most car producers have actually increased the dividends for 2018 (FCA, PSA, and VW), whereas Renault maintained its pay-out. The opposite is true for luxury car producers Daimler and BMW. We have doubts that this is an indication of a much more difficult year 2019 for them than for the others.

Companies: Bayerische Motoren Werke

15 Mar 19

Better profit visibility in North America

Despite the tough cost environment in North America (75% of the group’s total operating profit), Autogrill still finished FY18 in line with guidance and the market’s expectations. The mid-term outlook has been maintained, which is a very positive sign, given the market previously anticipated a guidance downgrade due to the challenging macro environment in North America and soft traffic on motorways in Italy.

Companies: Autogrill

15 Mar 19

Momentum slowed in H2

Sales momentum slowed in H2 and closed the year up 6% at local currency. Trading conditions were tough in Hong Kong and Macau. Fewer tourists in Europe and America have deepened the slow down. Margins were much lower than expected.

Companies: Prada

20 Jun 18

Cenkos: Leisure Sector -- Suspend coverage

Due to a change in sector focus Cenkos Securities plc has suspended coverage of the following stocks (see table 1). Our previous recommendation and forecasts can no longer be relied upon. Please contact Cenkos for further information.

Companies: TUI CCL CPG DOM GNK IHG JDW JE/ MARS MERL MAB PPB PTEC RTN SSPG TCG WTB WMH

04 Jul 18

UK Housebuilding Sector in 2Q 2018

This VAR was conceived in 2010 by the Royal Netherlands Football Association (KNVB) but it was seven years later, in April 2017, that it had its professional club competition debut in the A-League in Australia in a match between Melbourne and Adelaide.

Companies: CSP WJG TEF ABBY INL CRST BWY MCS BKG

21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

05 Feb 19

Executive interview - Tetragon

11 Mar 19

Africa Energy Corp - Company Overview

20 Feb 19

Bitesize briefing - Alkane Resources

11 Mar 19

Origin Enterprises CEO, Tom O'Mahony*

Premium

06 Mar 19

Executive interview – ROVI

11 Feb 19

Executive interview - Immunicum

01 May 18

Base Resources: Overview

05 Feb 19

Consumer Staples: Our Best Ideas We expect sector rotation into defensives: Buy ABI, Imperial, Reckitt

Premium

03 Jan 17

Executive interview - VolitionRx

25 Jan 19

Capital Goods Value trap – 2019 Outlook

Premium

15 Mar 19

Executive interview - VolitionRx Discusses FY18 Results and Provides a Business Update

20 Dec 18

eServGlobal (ESG) Presentation at MELLO London November 2018

13 Nov 18

Capital Network's Ed Stacey talks over CUI Global's new numbers

10 Dec 18

Executive interview – mVise

28 Feb 19

Executive interview – Cantargia

Latest Content

Salt Lake Potash

Cenkos: Salt Lake Potash Ltd - Lake Way Resource

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18 Mar 19
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Talanx

Profit in line with (corrected) FY2018 target

Net attributable profit increased by 5% to €703m for FY2018 compared to FY2017. Net premiums earned rose by 8% to €29.6bn for 2018 compared to 2017. The net investment income was down by 16% to €3.8bn for 2018. RoI was 3.3% for 2018 compared to 4.0% for 2017. Insurance claims increased by 1% to €23.5bn in 2018 compared to 2017. The group’s net combined ratio of the non-life business was 98.2% for 2018 compared to 100.4% for 2017. Pre-tax result rose by 12% to €1.86bn for 2018. Equity capital attributable to common shares decreased by 1% to €8.5bn at the end 2018 compared to the end of 2017. RoE was 8.0% for 2018 versus 7.5% for 2017. The dividend per share proposal increased from €1.40 for FY2017 to €1.45 for FY2018. Talanx confirmed its net attributable profit target of around €900m for FY2019.

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18 Mar 19
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Actinogen Medical

Actinogen Medical - Differentiated treatment for Alzheimer’s disease

Actinogen Medical is an ASX-listed Australian biotech developing its lead asset Xanamem to treat cognitive impairment that occurs in chronic neurodegenerative diseases. Xanamem® is a selective 11β-HSD1 inhibitor that is able to cross the blood-brain barrier and target excess brain cortisol, which has been associated with cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The ongoing Phase II XanADu trial is fully enrolled with mild AD patients, who receive Xanamem in conjunction with standard of care. The results are due by end-Q219 and will shape further development of Xanamem. Our valuation is A$195m or A$0.17/share.

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18 Mar 19
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Crossject

No major change post FY18 results (Crossject)

No major change post FY18 results EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS2019 : € -0.51 vs -0.50 ns 2020 : € -0.39 vs -0.39 ns We have only fine-tuned our numbers after the release of FY18 results, which are anyway insignificant before the group’s products actually reach the market in FY2021, i.e. results (losses) before 2021 are almost simply the sum of operating costs. CHANGE IN NAV€ 10.0 vs 11.9 -15.4% The SOTP goes down a tick after the dilution stemming from the conversion of bonds at the beginning of the current year, the total number of shares rising from 13.6m to 15.7m. CHANGE IN DCF€ 15.0 vs 13.9 +7.91% The DCF goes up, despite the increased number of shares (partly compensated by a lower debt level) since the positive cash flows are actually “nearer” (by a year), with our forecasts now starting from FY19 on.

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18 Mar 19
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NEXSTIM OYJ

Securing the commercial future of NBT in depression

Nexstim is embarking on the next stage of its journey in commercialising its Navigated Brain Therapy (NBT) platform in MDD (major depressive disorder). The recently reported FY18 results confirmed operational progress was much as expected. A sizeable rights issue is planned, with the aim of securing sufficient funding to support the commercial roll-outs of NBT in depression in North America and Europe. It was also announced that the NBS pre-surgical mapping platform may be divested. We have updated our valuation and financial model to reflect the expected changes. We now value the company at €10.5m or €3.23 per share (also €3.23 diluted), against €32.0m, or €10.5/share (also €10.5 diluted) were financial risk removed.

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18 Mar 19
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BWO ECO RRL

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

BW Offshore (BWO NO) (not covered): Acquisition offshore Brazil | Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (ECO LN/EOG CN) (not covered): Resources update in Guyana | Range Resources (RRL LN/RRS AU) (not covered): Restructuring and acquisition of education business