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10 Aug 17

A watershed moment for CAR-T

In the short term we retain our sector neutral recommendation, as drug pricing, uncertainty over healthcare reform in the US, and Brexit in Europe create a more challenging backdrop. However, the long term trends in healthcare – an aging population, rising spending on healthcare globally both in developed and emerging markets and innovation changing healthcare practice – in addition to the rapid pace of technology development, make it an attractive time for stock picking.

Companies: ABC AMS AGY ANCR BTG C4XD CTH CSRT DPH DNL EKF FARN HCM HZD IMM MXCT MTPH PLI SCLP SPHR VLG VER

27 Jun 17

Machinations

We recently hosted our annual Industrial Technology dinner with 14 companies, many of which are active in the materials science arena; having focused previously on composite materials in the aerospace sector, in this edition of Machinations we focus on graphene, with its unique and potentially game-changing qualities and potential applications. Investments in this area remain fairly early stage, but could potentially reap huge rewards. Graphene is well represented in the UK small-cap market by several players.

Companies: SIXH ACL AXS AMPH ALU AEP AVG CAPD CAR FENR FLO RAD GHH HDD HAYT IOF MPE RE/ RED RNO RBN SOM SCE TRT TRI VANL ZAM

10 Aug 17

Running out of cash and equity

The group’s accounts show poor profit numbers, but our real concern is the lack of cash generation and balance sheet quality. 9M order inflow was up by 14% to €32.7bn and revenue by 9% to €32.0bn. EBIT fell by 76% to €205m and net income including the loss from discontinued operations (€1.05bn) turned around from a profit of €168m in 9M16 to a loss of €721m. While the revenue number was just ahead of our expected €31.2bn, the two profit numbers fell short (we had expected €984m and -€530m). If we exclude the loss generated by Steel Americas and still included in the group’s reporting, EBIT was €986m, i.e. it just matched our expectation.

Companies: ThyssenKrupp

10 Aug 17

Management expects “best year ever”

Mondo’s H1 trading update points to revenues up 39% and with a strong contribution from higher-margin library, licensing and merchandise sales, EBIT up 68%. Much of the pipeline is committed moving into the second half, and we believe the group is on track to deliver on its budget for FY17, which management confirms is expected to be Mondo’s best ever year.

Companies: Mondo Tv

10 Aug 17

Focus turns to TXT Next

TXT reported H117 revenue growth of 8.9% y-o-y, with a small decline in Q217 revenues of 1.1%. The company has agreed to sell the TXT Retail business for €85m with completion expected by the end of October. While we continue to include TXT Retail in our forecasts until the deal completes, we provide an illustration of the TXT Group income statement taking into account the disposal.

Companies: TXT e-solutions

16 Aug 17

Automation to drive enhanced returns

Following a visit to paragon’s expanded Delbrück facility and the successful €50m bond issue, we have revisited and upwardly revised our medium-term growth and margin outlook for the group. With 2016 results having met forecasts despite some timing headwinds and future years underpinned by substantial contract wins across the electromobility division, we believe paragon is on the cusp of further accelerated growth. With proceeds from both the October 2016 capital increase and June 2017 bond issue being invested to support this accelerated growth, we raise our fair value to €82.1/share based on our updated DCF scenarios.

Companies: paragon

21 Jul 16

Clean fuel for Europe and beyond

Berkeley Energia offers exposure to the exceptionally high quality Salamanca uranium project located in Spain. A Definitive Feasibility Study has been completed and initial infrastructure development has now started on the ground. This will be the only major new uranium project to start construction in the current uranium market, largely because of its expected low operating costs and low upfront capital requirements. We initiate coverage with an 113p price target and a Buy recommendation.

Companies: Berkeley Energia

27 Mar 17

The Joy of Techs

Enterprise-focused niche applications of tech illustrate how, while trends appear to be fluctuating away from the current poster children of fintech and the Internet of Things, in fact these developments are refining appropriate application of existing technologies.

Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CFHL ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO

28 Jul 17

Tailings

We are following Rio Tinto's recent lead in taking a look at the outlook for copper. Rio Tinto is currently allocating 61% of its global exploration budget (US$497m in 2016) to look for copper with 16 active large copper exploration projects in hand. We look at the major drivers and consider the outlook for three copper producers within our current coverage universe: Central Asia Metals, Atalaya Mining and Weatherly International.

Companies: APF ACP ATYM ASO BKY CAML FDI GEMD HZM PAF PDL SAV SHG WTI WLF

29 Jun 17

HomeSend looking ever more exciting

The focus is on the growing strength of the JV with Mastercard and BICS in the first 6 months of a 14-month period to December. At a headline level, sales in the core PayMobile mobile money business are down 30% on timing of pipeline conversion, seeing a H1 adj. EBITDA loss of A$6m despite significant cost cutting. This was exacerbated by A$4.3m exceptional trade debt/WiP impairment. Meanwhile, HomeSend delivered a A$1.9m loss in H1 as it begins a sales function expansion, transitioning from its setup stage to commercial rollout, signing major agreements with large banks and supporting Mastercard Send. The management team is clearly very excited by the ever-increasing prospects for this global payment network, emphasising an anticipated increase in value, even above previous hopes. However, the group’s H1 -A$6.1m FCF left a cash balance of just A$2.9m at 30 April (A$10.6m net debt) and to address this, a further A$4.2m (£2.5m) of debt has been secured from a major shareholder on the same terms as the existing facility, but with a covenant on net asset growth in H2.

Companies: ESERVGLOBAL

26 Jul 17

Advanced Materials – the building blocks of Tomorrow’s World

Whether we know it or not, advanced materials are a core component in the everyday life of the everyday person. They are the key material in items we often disregard, such as printer inks and lotions, to objects which defy the laws of gravity like the Airbus A380 and London’s Shard. Furthermore, these materials are not only essential to many objects and structures, but, due to their superior qualities, are the key to the advancement of many industries. One such example is the use of carbon fibre which offers five to ten times more rigidness, stiffness, and strength than its aluminium counterpart. As a result of these impressive qualities, motorsport and athletics have improved ten-fold since their mainstream use and new records are broken every year.

Companies: AGM AUTG BIOM BOY CAR EKT EMH EXO GRPH HDD HAYD IKA ITX CRPR MGAM NANO OXIG PLA SCE SYM VCT ZEN

11 Aug 17

Growth momentum is coming back!

Q2`17 results. Revenues excluding the sold Performance Products division increased by 14.1% to €219m. The gross margin improved from 17.3% to 21.6%, EBITDA remained stable at around €14.1m. The EBITDA margin however declined from 7.4% to 6.4%, The EBIT margin increased from 0.6% to 1.9% mainly attributable to lower depreciation. Our EBIT does not include the income from equity investments which is part of the financial results. The income increased from €1.8m to €2.6m. Net losses before discontinued operations increased from €6.8m to €9.5m and, including discontinued operations, from minus €46.8m to minus €3.3m. In the first half year revenues increased by 14.7% to €435.3m and the gross margin improved from 18.9% to 20.7%. The EBIT margin reached 2.4% compared to 1.7% in 2016. Net losses after minorities improved from €46.8m to €3.6m. Over the full year the company will still report a net loss because of positive income from the sale of the Evanston (USA) production site in 2016 and the redemption of the corporate bond (write-off of capitalized refinancing costs and early prepayment penalty).

Companies: SGL Carbon

10 Aug 17

Good Q2 net profit beats expectations

Net income attributable to shareholders increased by 21% to $896m for Q2 17 compared to Q2 16. Gross written premiums were down by 5% to $12.35bn for Q2 17 compared to the same period last year. The net investment result on group investments declined by 18% to $1.47bn for Q2 17, a RoI of 0.7% (not annualised) after 0.8% for Q2 16. Insurance claims were down by 17% to $6.7bn in Q2 17. Pre-tax profit rose by 15% to $1.46bn for Q2 17 compared to the same period last year. The tax ratio was 35.5% for Q2 17 compared to 34.2% for Q2 16. The non-life combined ratio was roughly stable at 98.4% for Q2 17 compared to 98.9% for Q2 16. Shareholders’ equity was unchanged at $30.7bn at the end of June 2017 versus end 2016. RoE was 13.5% for Q2 17 compared to 11.1% for Q2 16. The Swiss Solvency ratio was 227% at 1 January 2017.

Companies: Zurich Insurance Group

16 Aug 17

Challenge taken up

A year ago, we wrote that GBL was about to succeed in its challenge of evolving its portfolio towards greater geographic and sector diversification (see our Latest dated 02/08/2016). The appointments of Ian Gallienne and Gérard Lamarche as Group Managing directors in 2012 have effectively led to a change in GBL’s strategy. Even though the new managers declared that they would keep a patrimonial approach and a long-term view, GBL’s portfolio has significantly evolved over the last five years. As announced, the shift in the portfolio was gradual, while maintaining the principles of a “ friendly ” approach, a main shareholder position (1st or 2nd largest) and a sound financial situation (with a net cash position or a time-limited debt). One of GBL’s strategic priorities remains to “ optimise the balance between growth and yield investments ” with the view to creating value for its shareholders over the long term. “ GBL invests and disinvests depending on the development of the companies and on market opportunities to reach its objective of value creation, while maintaining a solid financial structure. ” To implement the portfolio diversification, GBL strengthened its financial flexibility by the launch of two exchangeable bonds, respectively into Suez Environnement shares in September 2012 and into GDF Suez (ENGIE) shares in January 2013, while continuing to collect the dividends of the holdings for three and four years. The proactive rotation of the portfolio was accelerated through a mix of spot and forward sales of historic assets (Total, ENGIE, Iberdrola, Arkema). The position held in Lafarge (21.1% since 2008) became 9.4% in LafargeHolcim in 2015, after the merger (supported by GBL) of Lafarge with the Swiss company Holcim. The cash issued from the divestments and GBL’s indebtedness position allowed the company to purchase new investments. In June 2013, GBL announced that it had reached an agreement with the Agnelli family’s holding Exor to acquire its interest in the capital of SGS, the world’s leading testing, inspection and certification group – becoming its reference shareholder, next to the von Finck family. Other investments followed, GBL buying a stake in some listed companies and then intending to increase its stakes further, the timing dependent on the share prices. In this way, GBL acquired a first stake in Umicore (in 2014), Ontex and Adidas (2015), Burberry (2016) and Parques Reunidos (2017) and increased its shareholding in these companies during the four-year period.

Companies: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert

11 Aug 17

Q2 results beats consensus despite tough hydro & wind conditions

Q2 results: the adjusted EBITDA came in at €107m (-3% yoy) beating consensus expectations. Adjusted net income was at €27m (vs. €17m 2016). Net debt slightly decreased to € 1.5bn corresponding to a stable leverage ratio. The full year guidance has been confirmed: -EBITDA at c. €430m -net financial debt at €1.45bn; -investments at €140m.

Companies: ERG S.p.A

12 Feb 16

EMR Capital - Update at 121 Mining Investment

10 Aug 17

VolitionRx announces second quarter 2017 financial results

15 Dec 16

Executive Interview - Paragon

10 Aug 17

Executive interview - 4SC

24 Jul 17

Berkeley Energia - Development of the Salamanca mine progressing well

07 Aug 17

Executive interview - Mondo TV

19 Apr 16

JP Morgan - Update at 121 Mining Investment

07 Aug 17

Executive interview - Mondo TV (Italian)

23 May 17

Capital Network's James Dolman on Midpoint Holdings Ltd

14 Jul 17

Executive interview - Banca IFIS

18 Jul 17

Executive interview - Volition Rx

12 Jul 17

Berkeley Energia - Key construction milestone delivery of primary crusher to site

12 Jul 16

Talking Stock: Peak Asset Management’s Niv Dagan comments on markets and opportunities

26 Jun 17

Executive Interview - Carmat

13 Jul 15

Executive Interview - Cooks Global Foods

Latest Content

Swiss Life Holding

Good H1 17 earnings and premium decrease

Pre-tax profit increased by 5% to CHF676m for H1 17 compared to the same period last year. Net earned premiums were down by 9% to CHF7.5bn for H1 17. Investment income declined by 2% to CHF2.2bn for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Total income was down by 7% to CHF10.7bn for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Insurance benefits and claims declined by 12% to CHF8.0bn for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Total expenses decreased by 8% to CHF9.9bn in the same period. Net profit attributable to common shares was up by 4% to CHF521m for H1 17 compared to H1 16. Shareholders’ equity rose by 2% to CHF14.0bn at end June 2017 compared to the previous year-end. The SST ratio was 161% and the Solvency II ratio was above 200% at January 2017.

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16 Aug 17
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Gaussin

Financial freedom by 2019? (Gaussin)

Financial freedom by 2019? TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.53 vs 0.61 -12.2% Note that we changed our recommendation from a Call option recommendation (held for almost two years) to a Buy in June 2017. We believe that the debt restructuring and the strong guidance (namely €18m of revenue and a positive reported net profit for FY17) are positive elements. We believe that the company could become cash break-even from 2019 onwards, which would be a very positive element and a strong catalyst for the share price. Finally, in our view, Gaussin's dependence on capital increases is approaching an end (we forecast only a €5m capital increase in 2018). Gaussin's financial freedom will be significantly rewarded by the market. In anticipation of this, we have switched to a positive recommendation. CHANGE IN EPS2017 : € 0.00 vs 0.02 -76.2% 2018 : € 0.04 vs 0.05 -22.9% Following a Q2 that was disapointing relative to Q1, we have decided to lower our EPS forecasts. We now expect the company to be break-even in 2017 on an adjusted basis. We still expect Gaussin to deliver positive adjusted net income in FY 2018. CHANGE IN NAV€ 0.67 vs 0.71 -6.68% Following the issuance of convertible bonds, we have adapted our assumptions about the future capital increase, namely the conversion of debt into shares. We now expect this to takes place at c.€0.25 per share vs €0.30 previously, explaining all the decrease in our NAV. CHANGE IN DCF€ 0.76 vs 0.83 -8.51% Following the issuance convertible bonds, we have adapted our assumptions about the future capital increase, namely the conversion of debt into shares. We now expect this to takes place at c.€0.25 per share vs €0.30 previously, explaining all the decrease in our DCF.

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16 Aug 17
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Antofagasta BHP Billiton

VSA Morning Miner

This Morning’s News Antofagasta (ANTO LN) BHP Billiton (BLT LN)

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16 Aug 17
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paragon

Automation to drive enhanced returns

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16 Aug 17
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PXT TAO CPI TETY TGL ORC/B

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Parex Resources (PXT CN)6,8; BUY, C$22.00: When opportunity knocks | TAG Oil (TAO CN) 1; HOLD, C$0.75: Fiscal 1Q18 results | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN)8 ; BUY, C$1.50: First production from Turkey now expected in 4Q17e | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)6 ; HOLD, SEK55: Strong operations limited by OPEC/non-OPEC production constraints in Oman | TransGlobe Energy (TGL CN); BUY, C$4.00: 2Q17 cash flow beats expectations and 2017e guidance revised | Orca Exploration (ORC CN) (not covered): 2Q17 results

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16 Aug 17
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Groupe Bruxelles Lambert

Challenge taken up

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16 Aug 17
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Akzo Nobel

Evidence suggests a strategy change

Akzo Nobel announced that the company has reached an agreement with active investor Elliot Advisors and Paul Singer.

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16 Aug 17
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Carlsberg

H1: costs savings are coming through

H1 update: Organic net revenue was up +2% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 0%) with beer volume -3% (cons. -0.8%) and +4% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was up 2% (FX: +2%, net acquisitions -2%). The operating margin was up 200bp to 13% (better than cons. +100bp) and improved across all geographies. OG net revenue by region: Western Europe +2%, Eastern Europe -1% and Asia +6%. OG beer volume by region: Western Europe +0%, Eastern Europe -9% and Asia -1%. The FY guidance is maintained: mid single-digit organic operating profit growth and a further reduction in financial leverage.

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16 Aug 17
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PEG COG IKA OMI EZH MMH UBI CIRC EPO

AIM Breakfast

LoopUp—The provider of conference calls and online meetings is seeking to join AIM. 2015 revs of £9.2m and EBITDA of £1.02m | Bacanora Lithium— To list on AIM around 28 Sep as holding company for TSX listed Bacanora Minerals at £100m market cap | Aura Energy—ASX listed uranium developer (ASX:AEE) expected to join AIM 6 September | Autins Group plc - The acoustic and thermal insulation specialist now looks to join AIM late August

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16 Aug 17
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Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

Speculations suggest FCA might be bought by a Chinese car producer

According to the US media (Automotive News), the Chinese government is pressing local car producers to acquire companies in North America and Europe to get access to their distribution channels which will eventually allow them to sell their own cars in those regions. This speculation contradicts other government statements that restrict foreign investments in order to limit the money outflow from China. In addition, the government intends to limit the credit growth and a takeover like this will certainly need bank financing. According to the report, it is Jeep (in Nafta) that might be of interest to these investors plus Fiat (in Europe). Apparently, neither Alfa Romeo nor Maserati are part of the discussions.

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