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23 Oct 18

Quarterly Research Outlook

The June IPO of Knights Group Holdings, a Top-100 regional law firm, marked the fifth entrant to the burgeoning UK-listed legal sector. Following recent expansion of our coverage across all five listed legal firms, complemented by coverage of three broader support services peers with exposure to the sector, we revisit and build upon our views on this rapidly evolving sector.

Companies: ARS GTLY GENL KEYS KGH MNO RBGP TWD 7DIG ABBY AMS AMER ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KEYS KGH LAM MACF MNO MKLW NAH OXIG PCA PKG CAKE PDG RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZTF

06 Nov 18

THE MONTHLY November 2018

In addition to Hardman’s monthly analysis of client stocks, the thorny issue of market disruption – a popular theme currently - is also addressed. In a wide-ranging article, Hardman’s utilities analyst, Nigel Hawkins, assesses the impact that market disruption has already made. In some sectors, notably telecoms and aviation, market disruption has been apparent for many years, as the rise of Vodafone, Ryanair and easyJet demonstrates. However, in some sectors, such as oil and housebuilding, structural changes have been modest – the dominance of the big players endures. For investors, there is real interest in those sectors where changes are underway. The UK groceries market, which may shortly become a duopoly, is a case in point. And, intriguingly, who knows if there is a company currently languishing in AIM, which will attain a £50bn market valuation within the next decade?

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT DISH BNO BUR CMH CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCE SIXH TON VAL VTA W7L

16 Nov 18

U-turn on £2 FOBT stake and RGD effective date

Government will bring forward the timing of implementing the lower £2 limit on B2 machines (FOBTs), now effective April 2019. Simultaneously, Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) or Point of Consumption Tax on online gaming will increase to 21%, April 2019 (it excludes online sports betting and betting on racing online). It puts operators under pressure to bring forward their own rightsizing plans for their shop estates, with four and a half months remaining before the effective date. We adjust our forecasts for FY19e, given the new effective date, with new price targets attached.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB

20 Nov 18

Thin Film Electronics - Destocking holds back revenue development

Thinfilm’s results for the nine months ended September 2018 show that Q318 was adversely affected by the end-customer destocking of the anti-theft (EAS) tags. We therefore revise our estimates downwards and cut our indicative valuation from NOK1.92/share to NOK1.68p/share. However, we are encouraged that Apple recently launched iPhones with native background, NFC tag read functionality. This is generating renewed interest among brand owners for Thinfilm’s NFC solutions, underpinning management’s expectations of a strong NFC tag ramp-up during H219.

Companies: THIN FILM ELECTRONICS

05 Oct 18

UK Housebuilding Sector in 3Q 2018…

“It’s like the cow that every single day during 10 years sees the train crossing in front of it at the same time. And if you ask the cow what time is the train going to come, it’s not going to have the right answer. In football it’s the same”.

Companies: ABBY TEF CSP TW/ BWY PSN RDW BDEV MCS BKG GLE SPR

19 Nov 18

Water reflections

We met with Valeura’s management in Turkey last week. Valeura has announced that Yamalik-1 production had stabilised at 0.5 mmcf/d (gas) and a very encouraging condensate yield of 50 bbl/mcf. Investors’ attention was however caught by 269 bbl/d of water, probably suggesting some formation water production. This sent the share price down c.40% on concerns the play did not work and probable flashbacks of ExxonMobil’s failure at the Mako Through play in Hungary.

Companies: VALEURA ENERGY

20 Sep 18

AIM MARKET UPDATE June, July, August 2018

AIM showed no signs of a summer slowdown with three strong months with regards to total funds raised (new and further issues). June, July and August averaged over £700m per month, boosted by a particularly strong June which delivered 14 IPOs (historically AIM has 5-6 new joiners per month). Through the end of August 2018, the total amount raised (new and further issues) of £4.80bn is +15% on the same period in 2017 which itself was the best year since 2007.

Companies: CDM LOOP YEW BLOE AQX SAE ANX TGP INX CBOX MIND KGH RAI TGL YCA IMMO DGOC NUC OVB TWD CNIC

27 Sep 18

On the HomeStraight

For the first time, we have a clear baseline from which to build a projection of HomeSend’s potential. eServGlobal now holds a 35.69% stake in HomeSend, identified by Mastercard as a key cross-border transaction platform. HS has made a strategic expansion from remittance markets into B2B transactions, and the US giant is driving its rollout across the global banking sector as a comparable alternative to the current correspondent banking network. Transaction volumes and HS revenues are now set to take off. High operational gearing will translate that into remarkable earnings and cash generation for the JV. To prime this engine, HS requires a large cash float to hold in multiple currencies enabling a network of direct connections and FX capabilities. Giving some idea of the scale of transactions expected, HS has asked for a €50m capital injection; €32m from Mastercard and €18m from eServGlobal. This will support up to $4.5bn in annual transaction values, and in future the additional float required would likely be covered by a line of trading credit rather than equity. For this injection, eServGlobal has raised £19m from its shareholders in the knowledge that it is entering a crucial phase with HS and Mastercard. Success and significant earnings are now imminent, and we expect that Mastercard, a $220bn market cap global financial services giant, will be keen to secure the operation in totality.

Companies: eServGlobal

15 Nov 18

9M numbers released today not really helpful

‘Old’ Linde AG has released sales and operating profit numbers for 9M18 but nothing else. Revenue fell by 1.7% to just above €13bn (+4.8% organic) while operating profit increased by 4.2% to €3.30bn. Linde’s number is close to EBITDA, but it includes one-offs which we do not include in operating earnings. We had expected a sales number of €12.8bn and EBITDA of €3.15bn.

Companies: Linde

20 Nov 18

Sustainability as new driver and increasing dividends to attract investors

BASF announced its new strategy under the aegis of the new CEO, Dr Brudermueller, which targets top-line growth above the market’s, an annual increase in EBITDA before special items of 3-5% and ROCE above the cost of capital percentage. By generating a higher FCF, the dividend will be annually increased. Furthermore, BASF aims to keep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions flat at the 2018 level until 2030. As of 2019, there will be a new reporting structure. Currently, it is still unclear whether Construction Chemicals will be divested.

Companies: BASF

21 Nov 18

Steadying the ship

The Corporation focussed on the biology of healing has had a busy November not only reporting Q3 results and highlights, and issuing improved financial guidance, but critically also agreeing amended terms with its long-term backers, thereby pushing out the maturity of its debt facilities (estimated at close to C$200m) to September 2024. The loans, ultimately controlled by Peter J. Thomson’s investment firm, Thomvest Asset Management include a C$100m facility that previously was due to expire in November 2019. This is a tremendously supportive move and Prometic’s focus on prudent cash management and prioritisation of core clinical objectives is alleviating balance sheet pressure whilst priming its relatively late stage potential blockbuster therapies to crystallise value in the near term.

Companies: ProMetic Life Sciences

09 Apr 18

UK Housebuilding Sector

This ominous-sounding term originated from the work of famed Swedish meteorologist, Tor Bergeron (1897-1977), but it only entered popular vernacular this year – and there have been ample opportunities in 2018 to use it.

Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG

17 Aug 18

Q2 highlights: strong Alström data opening up multiple options. Partnering and investor interest growing

This week’s Q2 update and conference call by Prometic highlighted just how important a part one of the Company’s smallest investigational indications (Alström Syndrome) is playing in driving its partnering and clinical strategy. Why is this?

Companies: ProMetic Life Sciences

01 Oct 18

Waiting for acceleration in FY19

We see FY19 guidance as very ambitious and we believe that, after a series of disappointments, a faultless execution is needed to regain crebility and momentum.

Companies: ARYZTA

10 Oct 18

Solid quarter but a bit conservative about the outlook

LVMH reported solid growth in Q3. All businesses have contributed to the growth. However, caution is needed for the short-term outlook given the escalating concerns about waning Chinese demand.

Companies: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton

14 Nov 18

121 Oil & Gas, London - Touchstone Exploration - Vox Pops

21 Nov 18

Executive interview – Oryzon

20 Mar 18

VolitionRx: Results from asymptomatic CRC trial reported

29 Oct 18

Bitesize briefing - Endeavour Mining

06 Nov 18

Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas - Update from Africa Oil Week

25 Sep 18

Bitesize briefing - Nuevolution

19 Nov 18

Executive interview - Canadian General Investments

24 Sep 18

Executive interview - Genesis Energy

14 Nov 18

121 Oil & Gas, London - Touchstone Exploration - Presentation

13 Sep 18

CUI Global's GasPT product 'a potential game-changer' for the company

14 Nov 18

121 Oil & Gas, London - TransGlobe Energy - Presentation

31 Aug 18

eServGlobal (ESG) Interview with Executive Chairman John Conoley

13 Nov 18

Capital Network's Ed Stacey talks over CUI Global's new numbers

20 Aug 18

Executive interview – VolitionRx

30 Oct 15

Stone & Chalk: Cover Genius Promo Video

Latest Content

PPC CAB APCL

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): Argentina update | Cabot Energy (CAB LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £0.10: Resources estimates in Italy | Equinor (EQNR NO) (not covered): Gas find in Norway | African Petroleum (APCL NO) (not covered): Relinquishes licences SL-03-17 and SL-4A-17 in Sierra Leone.

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22 Nov 18
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CREALOGIX Holding

CREALOGIX Group - International expansion continues

CREALOGIX has established a strong track record of delivering software solutions to the banking industry in Switzerland and is transitioning the business to international markets. FY18 numbers were below expectations, mainly due to the faster than anticipated switch to SaaS, which spreads out revenue. International revenues represent 57% of the total (50% in FY17). CREALOGIX acquired the 80% remainder of Elaxy BS&S in July, having acquired Innofis to target the Middle Eastern markets earlier this year. The stable, cash-generative nature of Elaxy BS&S balances the higher-risk, stronger growth profile of Innofis. Given the attractive industry dynamics, and with CREALOGIX ideally positioned to capitalise on these, the shares look attractive on c 21x our FY20e EPS.

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21 Nov 18
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Oryzon Genomics

Executive interview – Oryzon

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21 Nov 18

Enel

Convincing CMD-2018, Buy reiterated

Enel held its capital markets day on 20/11/2018. The group’s CEO, Francisco Starace, and CFO, Alberto De Paoli, gave a detailed presentation of the group’s strategy for the 2019-21 period.

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21 Nov 18
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ThyssenKrupp

ThyssenKrupp’s new accounts show a tiny net profit of €8m

The group’s new 2017/18 accounts show Steel Europe as a discontinued operation that contributed a net profit of €258m, whereas the group’s continuing operations contributed a net loss of €200m. After deducting minority charges of €51m, the bottom line shows a tiny profit and management proposes an unchanged dividend of €0.15 payable early next year.

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21 Nov 18
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MagForce

MagForce - 2019 a pivotal year

MagForce continues to implement its two-pillar strategy. A gross $9.0m capital raise secured by subsidiary MagForce USA in August will enable financing of the pivotal US prostate cancer trial to completion. In Europe, expansion outside Germany has started and a NanoActivator will be installed in Poland by the end of the year. Of the €9.2m reported revenue and other operating income in H118, €24k relates to EU glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) treatments, while the remainder (€8.8m) was non-cash income relating to hidden reserves as a result of the MagForce USA share transfer. We forecast revenues to pick up in 2019 following the roll-out of devices across Europe and a launch in the US (in late 2019). We value MagForce at €303.1m or €11.5/share.

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21 Nov 18
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Europlasma

Allowing for delay-driven H1 losses (Europlasma)

Allowing for delay-driven H1 losses TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.21 vs 0.34 -38.5% The small new energy group is suffering from further delays to fine-tune its power generation technology. This implies continuing refinancing concerns that have sent the share price down in a negative spiral. We have allowed for higher dilution compared to the previous scenario. As a reminder, Europlasma may use its existing majority control of the power generation business to raise cash at this level as well. CHANGE IN EPS2018 : € -0.05 vs -0.01 ns 2019 : € -0.01 vs 0.00 ns EPS suffers from the H1 18 loss, meaning the first "normal" year of operation for the waste to energy venture is 2019 and not 2018. 2018 is busy fine-tuning the technology implying stop and go power production and a lower than expected top line. CHANGE IN NAV€ 0.23 vs 0.35 -34.5% The lower NAV per share recognises a higher forward looking number of shares. The underlying assets valuation is essentially unchanged. CHANGE IN DCF€ 0.45 vs 0.72 -37.6% The lower DCF recognises a higher forward looking number of shares and a higher debt level at the close of 2018.

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21 Nov 18
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Faurecia

Faurecia and Hella join forces in interior lighting

The two companies have formed a partnership for the development of innovative interior lighting solutions. Whereas Faurecia is a supplier of complete vehicle interiors, Hella is specialised in lighting. The aim of the partnership is to develop surface-lighting and dynamic-lighting solutions for a more personalised cockpit environment. Whether this cooperation will eventually lead to more than just this interior lighting partnership remains to be seen.

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21 Nov 18
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MEDSERV

Medserv - Geographical reach

Medserv has announced signing a contract for shore-base logistics in Suriname, a new geographic region for the company. End markets are supportive for the company and we believe tendering activity continues at a good level. Overall, FY18 has progressed well, with contract wins establishing the company on a broad geographic reach and underpinning growth expectations in FY19.

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21 Nov 18
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La Doria

La Doria - A tough environment

The consumer environment remains tough for La Doria and the adverse weather conditions for the seasonal tomato campaign have led management to slightly edge down its FY18 profit outlook earlier this year. During 9M18, underlying sales were up 2%, which represents a slowdown from the +3.7% in H1. This was caused by a deceleration in growth in the “other lines” of the trading business during Q3, ie the non-core part. Management is forging ahead with its four-year investment plan and the Acerra plant has now closed. We trim our forecasts in line with the revised outlook and our fair value moves to €15.40 from €16.10.

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