UK250

UK 250 equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content for the next 250 largest listed companies in the UK.

UK 250 Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, & analysis on the UK 250

20 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 20-06-2017

N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Start to the year confirms BWNG transformation benefits emerging

Companies: N Brown Group

23 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - Marston's - Updated forecasts & view

We are doing some house keeping on Marston’s forecasts post recent interims and corporate activity. The latter was accretive but given consumer / cost headwinds we have adopted a more prudent view on underlying assumptions. Net, we lower our FY17/FY18 EPS by 3%-5% respectively to bring us in line with consensus. Sentiment towards the sector is currently at a low-ebb, reflecting consumer spend uncertainties, ongoing terrorist related media coverage, sterling weakness and mixed sector newsflow. Given a sub 9x P/E, 6% DPS yield and 12% FCF yield we feel most of the uncertainty is priced in and the shares are oversold. We see upside risk as management continue to deliver solid operational performances and investors start factoring in an improving leverage trend. In the interim a market leading 6% dividend yield is compelling and a strong support for the stock at the current depressed levels. We stay at Buy with a revised 12m TP of 140p (vs 150p). The next news is a 42 week trading update on the 26th July. The LFL comp is 2.5% vs our full year working assumption of 1%. Peer Greene King report finals next Thurs 29th and we are expecting a mixed tenor.

Companies: Marston's

19 Jun 17

Upgrade in numbers

A G Barr’s (BAG LN, HOLD, T/P 600p) share price since their FY2017 results on the 28th March has increased 18.6%. Their prelim results were in line with expectations and highlighted the company’s strategy to tackle the incoming sugar tax levy in the UK. We take this opportunity to adjust our FY2018 and FY2019 forecasts.

Companies: A.G. Barr

26 Jun 17

come together, right now

We think DIVI is a UK income product worth a look at this point in time. We call for holders of FGT to also pay attention as the two vehicles combined have lower volatility than FGT alone. Having analysed the UK income trusts since DIVI’s launch in April 2011, we have identified FGT and DIVI as two distinguished winning strategies. DIVI is a multi-cap balanced strategy, presently with a small/micro cap tilt and FGT is a large cap growth one.

Companies: Diverse Income Trust Finsbury Growth & Income Trust

20 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - N Brown Group - Start to the year confirms BWNG transformation benefits emerging

Product sales growth of 10.2% clearly highlights the strategic transformation is gaining momentum, and marks the 5th consecutive quarterly improvement in performance, comfortably beating market expectations. Whilst Financial Services income is down 5%, we continue to expect the trend within FS on both interest and non-interest lines to shift to growth from H2, with important implications for profitability from the improved quality of the file and arrears rates. There is no change to core guidance today although we expect small (1-2%) EPS upgrades and a c£10m downgrade to ND in response to the news 5 loss-making stores will be closed, having completed the review of that business. Given the online transformation, anticipated F4F benefits, and as we near an inflection point for international growth (in Q2), we have raised our 12-month target by 16% to 350p and continue to point investors to the re-rating potential. Buy.

Companies: N Brown Group

16 Feb 17

UK CHALLENGER BANKS

We initiate coverage of the Challenger banks with BUY recommendations on Aldermore, OneSavings Bank, Shawbrook and Virgin Money, and SELL ratings on CYBG and Metro Bank. We particularly like the specialist lenders as they have avoided direct competition with large UK banks and offer high growth and returns at attractive valuations (helped by the fallout from the Brexit vote) of 2017E PE and P/TBV of 7.5 and 1.6 for RoTE of 23% compared to large UK banks on 18.4 and 0.9 for RoTE of 8%. Among the true challengers we prefer Virgin Money for its 2017E RoTE of 14% for P/BV of 1.1 but are not keen on CYBG as it reminds us of the low growth and returns and continual restructuring costs recently seen at large UK banks, nor Metro Bank for its exorbitant 2017E P/TBV of 3.9 for no profits. Our Top Pick is Shawbrook as it is the most specialised of the lenders.

Companies: ALD CYBG MTRO OSB SHAW VM/

08 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Value screen periodic refresh and 9 focus stocks

We have completed another refresh of the value style screen, first established as of 12 May 2015. As usual the screen selected the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme value characteristics from our universe, and we have chosen 9 stocks to focus on. Since the last refresh as of 8 November 2016, the day before the US presidential election result was known, the screen has performed strongly (outperforming the small-cap index by 12.9pp on a weighted basis) with our focus stocks doing even better. The indication is that smaller value stocks perform well in a steady “risk on” environment. The new basket contains many UK consumer demand and emerging market plays. We find the latter exposure interesting at this juncture.

Companies: RUS GOAL VTU BILN INL AEP MAYA IPF OPM

02 Mar 17

Looking for that perfect 10

Staffing firms typically enjoy a material re-rating as their earnings approach/pass through the £10m mark (e.g. CPL early 2013, Matchtech early 2013, Robert Walters 2010). Empresaria provides the latest example, with the shares +69% over the last 12 months. Whilst the rating remains at a significant discount to its larger peers, its’ forward P/E has expanded from 7.2x (Feb-16) to 10.2x (today). The next staffing firm likely to reach the £10m mark is Harvey Nash, which is currently trading on a 30% discount to Empresaria.

Companies: HVN HAS ITQ PAGE RWA

22 Jun 17

The Money Bin

In the week to 19 June the FTSE All Share rose 0.3% vs. +2.0% for the Insurance Index and +2.9% for the Lloyd’s Index. The best performer was Hiscox (+4.0%); Helios* (0%) and Novae (+1.7%) were the worst performers. We flag the growth in global cyber insurance demand. Beazley leads, writing cUS$400m of cyber premium and partnering with Munich Re. Hiscox has said it will write US$100m+ of cyber premiums in 2017. Novae’s cyber premiums totalled c£45m in 2016 (c5% of its then book) and will be one of its core classes.

Companies: BEZ HUW HSX JLT LRE NVA

10 Apr 17

UK Housebuilding Sector: Q1 2017

Baron King of Lothbury, also known as Mervyn King former Governor of the Bank of England, is married to Barbara, a Finnish lady. She was his girlfriend in 1970 but distance and steam-driven telecoms conspired to keep them apart. Barbara went on to marry someone else and divorce - before being reunited with King in the late 1990s. They married in 2007 and King, who had never had children, was presented with two step-children and four grandchildren; and, in a Sunday Times interview, he quoted the Finnish apothegm “Grandchildren are the dessert of life”.

Companies: WJG CRST RDW BVS BDEV PSN TW/ MCS CRN BKG BWY INL

29 Jun 17

N+1 Singer - Greene King - In line finals & mixed outlook commentary

Finals this morning are bang in line with ours/consensus forecasts - so PBT +7% and EPS +1%. LFL’s in the Managed estate was +1.5% and +5% in Pub Partners. Spirit integration commentary is upbeat but no upward revision to cost saving guidance. Whilst there are no major surprises in the results we note expectation of a difficult trading environment persisting for a few years. This assessment is clearly stock/sector negative. Commentary on current trading as feared is mixed, albeit no LFL’s have been given. Overall, the tenor is pretty much as expected with no positive share price catalyst. The shares (-2% YTD) trade on a YR1 P/E of 9.5x with a 5% yield. Given an uncertain outlook and ongoing forecast risk, the rating looks about right for now. We stay at Hold.

Companies: Greene King

28 Jun 17

Tullow Oil – H1 TS broadly inline

Tullow’s H1 trading statement was broadly inline. FY production guidance for West Africa remains unchanged, despite a temporary issue at TEN, although Europe gas production has been marginally revised down for the FY. The financials all looked inline with our estimates. We don’t expect to make any material changes to our model. We remain with our BUY recommendation ahead of potential removal of certain overhangs in Q3.

Companies: Tullow Oil

23 Jun 17

Food on the Growth Path

Greggs (GRG LN, N/R) senior management team of Roger Whiteside (CEO) and Richard Hutton (FD) presented to Whitman Howard’s UK equity salesforce yesterday. While Gregg’s differs from mainstream sandwich manufacturers because of its extensive retail network the central message for the Food on the Go/Food to Go was clearly positive. Greggs itself benefits from outlet expansion, discrete new product development and a clear commitment to product quality. Financially, the company appears well placed to deliver on further cost control and free cash flow generation.

Companies: Greggs

22 Jun 17

Tullow Oil – TS preview

Tullow is due to release an H117 trading update on the 28th June. We highlight in this one pager the key things to look out for. In the short term, we believe Tullow’s share price will remain hostage to bearish sentiment around the oil price. However, as per our previous notes, Tullow’s hedging position limits short term gearing to the oil price. Moreover, if they can resolve the financing and ITLOS issues in Q3, we believe investor focus will start to shift back to Tullow’s quality asset base and growth potential. Our RENAV is 263p (LT oil price $70/bbl). We estimate the current share price of 148p is discounting a LT flat 2018+ oil price of $55/bbl (assuming PT is set at RENAV).

Companies: Tullow Oil

21 Jun 17

A Cub that Knows how to Roar

Greencore's (GNC LN, BUY, T/P 310p) presence as a solution provider to large US branded CPG operators is to date young relative to its presence in US and UK Food to Go. However, there was clear evidence from its Chicago based capital markets day that the "young cub" knows how to roar. Moreover, the investor knowledge asymmetry between the UK and US operations should diminish.

Companies: Greencore Group

31 May 17

LondonMetric - Full Year Results 2016/17 CEO Interview

24 May 16

Entertainment One - Full year results 2015/16

23 May 17

Assura plc - Full Year Results

12 Feb 16

Petra Diamonds - Update at 121 Mining Investment

23 May 17

Shaftesbury - CEO interview on the results for the six months to 31 March 2017

09 Dec 15

Entertainment One - Bond issue update

30 Nov 16

LondonMetric - Half year results

26 Nov 15

LondonMetric - Half year results

23 May 17

EntertainmentOne - Final Results

24 Nov 15

Leading the Charge - Entertainment One

22 Nov 16

Entertainment One - Interim results 2015/16 Highlights

19 Nov 15

Grainger Plc - Full year results for the year to 30 September 2015

22 Nov 16

Executive Interview - Entertainment One

02 Jun 15

LondonMetric - Full year results 2015

29 Nov 16

Shaftesbury - 2016 Year End Results

Latest Content

IGGCMCXPLUS

European regulator ESMA considering intervening in CFD market

The FCA said it was stepping aside from making conduct rules while ESMA was considering action

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29 Jun 17
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VEC ECK GLE GNK PINN RCN REDD RENE HW/ CPR ANP

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 29-06-2017

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29 Jun 17
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Greene King

N+1 Singer - Greene King - In line finals & mixed outlook commentary

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29 Jun 17
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Vectura Group

N+1 Singer - Vectura Group - Collaboration agreement with Sandoz bolsters generics pipeline

The collaboration with Sandoz bolsters Vectura’s already substantial portfolio of generics programmes in development. The generics segment is an important and fast-growing segment of the US respiratory market, representing c. 80% of the prescription volume but only c. 13% by market value. With multiple feasibility studies underway at Vectura, we believe further collaboration agreements in the generics space are likely. However, the VR315 (generic Advair®) uncertainty in the US continues to weigh on our valuation. We retain a Hold recommendation.

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29 Jun 17
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Greene King

Panmure Morning Note 29-06-2017

GNK delivered an in-line FY17 outcome and self-help initiatives from cost efficiencies and brand conversions should see profits held stable in FY18. At sub-8x EV/EBITDA, and with a near 5% dividend yield, we continue to see value in the equity, albeit with no imminent catalyst and with some caution around the high exposure to the value end of the market. Presentation 9:30am.

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29 Jun 17
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Tullow Oil

Tullow Oil – H1 TS broadly inline

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28 Jun 17
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Petra Diamonds

VSA Morning Miner

This Morning’s News Millennial Lithium (ML CN) Petra Diamonds (PDL LN)

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28 Jun 17
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CNE LUPE TLW VOG

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Canacol Energy (CNE CN) (not covered): Operational update in Colombia | Lundin Petroleum (LUPE SS) (not covered): Brynhild stake sold to CapeOmega | Tullow Oil (TLW LN); HOLD, £2.40: Trading update | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN)1,6; BUY, £1.20: 35 m net pay at La-107 in Cameroon

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28 Jun 17
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Tullow Oil

1H17 update: financials in line, but operations underwhelming

Tullow has provided its usual comprehensive update for the half ahead of 1H17 results due on 26 July. Financial guidance was close to our expectations however the operating performance was underwhelming, in our view. Capex guidance has been cut further, the company expects to take a US$0.6bn pre-tax impairment charge and overall mid-point production guidance has been cut by 750kboed. While Tullow’s financial position is improving, helped by the rights issue, incremental value adding activity remains constrained. We are holders with a 215p per share Target Price.

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28 Jun 17
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KIE PDL RECI CNS 7DIG AMP SLNG

Small Cap Breakfast

AnimalCare—RTO of Ecuphar NV, a European animal health company. £30m raise. Ecuphar FY16 rev £68.4m, underlying EBITDA £8.9m. Due 13 July.| Angling Direct -Schedule 1 from the specialist fishing tackle retailer in the UK . Offer TBA. Expected mid July. | NEXUS Infrastructure—Offer TBA. Provider of essential infrastructure services to the UK housebuilding and commercial sectors. Expected 11 July. FYSep16 rev £135.7m. | Tatton Asset Management –Sch 1. Provider if services to FCA authorized financial advisers. Raising £10m at 156p. Secondary offer £41.6m. Due 6 July. | GYG—Intention to float by the superyacht painting, supply and maintenance company. Due 5 July. Raising £6.9m new plus vendor sale of £21.5m at 100p. Mkt Cap c. £47m. Revenue of €54.6m in FY16 and adjusted EBITDA of €6.7m. | Greencoat Renewables - Schedule 1. Targeting a portfolio of operating renewable electricity generation assets, initially investing in wind generation assets in Ireland. Offer TBC. Due Mid July. | FFI Holdings— Specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, mini-series and streaming product. Raising £59m at 150p. Expected 30 June. | QUIZ— Omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA | Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets. Expected 29 June. Raising £15m at 140p. Mkt Cap £45.5m. | Jangada Mines—Sch 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, and only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Raising £2.25m. Mkt Cap £9.9m. Expected 29 June. | Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA | I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. | Verditek— Sch 1 update. The Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June | Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Prospectus yet to be published. | Impact Investment Trust—Exposure to a diversified portfolio of funds providing SMEs across developing economies with the growth capital they need to have a positive impact on the lives of the world's poorer populations. Raising up to $150m at $1.00 | Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. | Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. | NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe | Supermarket Income REIT– Up to £200m raise to acquire a diversified portfolio of supermarket real estate assets in the UK, providing long-term RPI-linked income. Due 21 July.