UK250

UK 250 equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content for the next 250 largest listed companies in the UK.

UK 250 Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, & analysis on the UK 250

13 Sep 18

Strong current trading, M&A not over yet

GVC released a positive set of H1 results, marked by the strong performance of both EU Retail and Online (sports and gaming). The group’s underlying EBITDA was up 11%, broadly in line with our estimates while the current trading remains strong. The group’s appetite for further bolt-on acquisitions – similar to that of CrystalBet in Georgia – seems intact. Todays’ results confirm that GVC remains one of our top picks in the gambling sector, along with Paddy Power-Betfair.

Companies: GVC

13 Sep 18

Solid 1H18, current trading strong

A Solid 1H18 from GVC, Football WC18 helped boost margins & volumes. 1H18 Online NGR +20% YoY (led by sports +21%, gaming +19%), resulting in market share gains in key territories. UK retail NGR -3% as reported in previous trading update, Europe retail continues double digit growth NGR +26% (Italy strong). 1H18 proforma group NGR +8% YoY to £1.7bn and proforma EBITDA +11% to £350m; interim divi of 16p (+10%), ex-div 20 September. Further £30m of Capex synergies identified in addition to £130m. 3Q18 update due in October.

Companies: GVC

14 Sep 18

LIBERUM: Kier Group* - Why we think the bears are wrong

Kier is one of the most shorted stocks in the UK (10%). Are the bears onto something, like Carillion, or are they setting themselves up for a short squeeze, like Ocado? Given the amount of gratuitous mud that has been hurled at Kier recently, it is inevitable that some of it sticks.

Companies: Kier Group

17 Sep 18

Entertainment One - Unlocking the value of creativity

Entertainment One’s (eOne’s) capital markets day (CMD) presentation highlighted its strong content and depth of management, with its independence allowing the luxury of platform agnosticism. With the major tech platforms building audience engagement to drive their broader business models, high-quality content remains a key differentiator that plays to eOne’s strengths. The strategy for Family & Brands is to focus on a tight portfolio, maximising merchandising and licensing opportunities. Recent strong share price performance has narrowed the discount to peers, but further positive newsflow would allow additional upside. Our forecasts are unchanged.

Companies: Entertainment One

21 Aug 18

Off to the races as NFL season draws closer

The US sports betting market has the potential to be significantly large. However, lack of federal level legislation, sluggish state by state legislative processes, and other limiting factors will cause a likely drag on the sport betting market’s full potential. The American Gaming Association estimates at least $150bn is wagered annually with offshore books, which implies a $10bn - $12bn revenue market. We estimate, onshore online sports revenue in 4 - 5 years of $6bn (table 6, p14) should be achievable across 25 States where Daily Fantasy Sports is legal in 22 states, if we include California, implies a market as large as $7.5bn in revenue. UK listed operators not necessarily only winners as US operators, Stockholm listed and some private companies make early inroads. Sports betting live in New Jersey, Mississippi, Delaware and Nevada, with West Virginia and Pennsylvania expected to follow soon.

Companies: GVC WMH PPB PTEC SPO 888 GAN NKTN KAMBI GIG SGMS IGT

18 Jul 18

Quarterly Research Outlook

In Q2, UK equities regained some of their poise after the draw down in Q1, although uncertainty around Brexit continued to grab the headlines. On the back of this, investor concern about the UK economy has been understandable in recent months given a number of negative data points. However, we see reasons for optimism for UK Plc with wage growth supporting an improving outlook for the consumer and business investment holding up. That said, continuing UK political disruption clearly remains a risk going forward.

Companies: AMER EMR HMI JOG PDG ABBY AMS AVON BLVN PIER CGS CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO GTLY GENL GOR GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG LAM MACF MKLW NAH OXIG PCA PKG CAKE PDG RBW REDD RSW RNO RKH ROR SUS SCPA SHG SIV TRAK TRI VTC ZTF

12 Sep 18

LIBERUM: Sports Direct* - Trading in line, share price fall unwarranted

Today's brief AGM update reiterates guidance for 5% to 15% underlying EBITDA growth in FY19E (y/e April), excluding the House of Fraser acquisition. We also note yesterday's statement from the company clarifying that Sports Direct itself is not the subject of an investigation by the FRC.

Companies: Sports Direct International

14 Dec 17

LIBERUM: Sports Direct* - H1 in line, full year on track

H1 underlying EBITDA is in line with our expectations at £156m and management is reiterating its guidance of full year EBITDA growth within the 5% to 15% range. H1 growth has been driven by the core UK Sports Retail division, where the ongoing improvements to the store estate remain a key focus and the trading performance of flagship stores has been very encouraging.

Companies: Sports Direct International

09 Apr 18

UK Housebuilding Sector

This ominous-sounding term originated from the work of famed Swedish meteorologist, Tor Bergeron (1897-1977), but it only entered popular vernacular this year – and there have been ample opportunities in 2018 to use it.

Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG

04 May 18

Future ambitions on track vs rating way off course

In our detailed research note (dated 14 Feb) we outlined scope for 1) better gross margin guidance, 2) personalisation to eliminate the drag from poor migration of former Fifty Plus customers, 3) a refi to fund Financial Services expansion and reduce RCF debt, and 4) guidance to settle nerves about IFRS9 (bad debt accounting). With these factors having played out, and net bank debt gearing reduced to 0.2x EBITDA, there is more clarity on the valuation anomaly on <9x P/E (7.2% yield), with FCF recovery in FY20 yielding 11%. We re-iterate a Buy stance.

Companies: N Brown Group

20 Jun 18

Cenkos: Leisure Sector -- Suspend coverage

Due to a change in sector focus Cenkos Securities plc has suspended coverage of the following stocks (see table 1). Our previous recommendation and forecasts can no longer be relied upon. Please contact Cenkos for further information.

Companies: TUI CCL CPG DOM GNK IHG JDW JE/ MARS MERL MAB PPB PTEC RTN SSPG TCG WTB WMH

02 Jul 18

H1 Review

Best Ideas - 2018 H1 Review

Companies: SAA VP/ GLE AMO IOM HSP CVSG EKF PGIT VRP RLM AVG SOG DNLM SFR YU/ CBP

18 Jul 18

Football WC18 boosts margins & volumes

Positive 1H18 update from GVC, where the Football WC18 has helped boost margins & volumes, particularly online, we estimate c. £23m boost to online NGR in 1H18. 1H18 Online NGR +20% YoY in cc, UK retail improved in 2Q18 and 1H18 NGR -3% YoY (1Q18 was - 5% due to weather), Europe retail continues double digit growth NGR +26% YoY in cc. Total group NGR was +8% YoY in cc. Should see benefits from WC18 in 3Q18 (latter stages of tournament). Interims due 13 September with 3Q update.

Companies: GVC

25 Jul 18

FLASH: 1H18 results

1H18 production of 90.1 mboe/d had already been reported. FY18 production guidance in Africa of 86-92 mbbl/d is unchanged. The company continues to forecast FY18 capex of US$460 mm. In Kenya, FID continues to be expected in late 2019. In Uganda, FID is now expected around the end of 2018 (late 2018 previously). Net debt at the end of June was US$3.1 bn, slightly better than previous indications (US$3.2 bn). Over 1H18, the company generated US$570 mm cash flow from operations net of financing and FPSO cost (GMP Fee: US$690 mm). Cash outflow from investing activities was only US$185.9 mm (GMP FEe: US$290 mm). Reserves at the end of 1H18 were 278.4 mmboe (290.5 mmboe at the end of December 2017) reflecting 1H18 production. Contingent resources at the end of June 2018 were 834.5 mmboe (844 mmboe YE17) reflecting disposals.

Companies: Tullow Oil

06 Sep 18

LIBERUM: Genus* - Strong FY18; Market swings bring short-term caution yet LT opportunities

Another strong year, in line with market expectations. FY18 revenues were +6% yoy in l.c. with adj PBT +9% to give adj EPS +15% and div +10%. ABS was the main contributor to growth while EU & LatAm PIC displayed strong royalty expansion (+32% and +15% yoy).

Companies: Genus

11 May 18

Harbourvest - 10 years of success and the future of Private Equity

20 Jul 18

Acacia Mining - H1 2018 Results

22 May 18

Entertainment One (ETO) Full year results presentation May 2018

13 Jun 18

Executive interview - Britvic

11 Dec 17

Capital Network's Ed stacey on Diploma PLC

13 Jun 18

Executive interview - Britvic

20 Jun 18

Bank of Georgia and Georgia Capital - Welcome Ceremony

22 May 18

Shaftesbury - Half Year Results 2018

23 May 17

Assura plc - Full Year Results

11 May 18

HVPE results - Yr end 31 Jan 2018

30 May 18

LondonMetric Property PLC - Full Year Results 2018 interview

01 Mar 18

Grafton Group - Full year results 2017

22 Aug 18

Grafton Group - Interim Results 2018

12 Feb 18

Acacia Mining - 2017 Final Results

28 Sep 17

HarbourVest - Company Overview

Latest Content

GVC

GVC Holdings - Strong growth amid integration

GVC has announced a strong set of H118 results, with pro-forma net gaming revenues (NGR) increasing 8% to £1,717m, driven by an impressive 18% growth in Online. The integration of Ladbrokes Coral is on track, with an additional £30m capex synergies identified. GVC is now a leading player in the global gaming market and is well placed to continue gaining share across all its key territories. M&A are likely to remain a feature and there is significant potential upside from the US, which is not in our estimates. The stock trades appropriately towards the top of its peer group, at 10.3x EV/EBITDA and 13.5x P/E for 2018e.

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20 Sep 18
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Kier Group

LIBERUM: Kier* - 16% upgrade to FY 2020

FY in line with 9% FD EPS growth, helped by McNicholas, and no exceptionals. Average net debt of £375m in line with expectations and the pension is now in surplus.

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20 Sep 18
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AO World

The In-Betweeners

AO World (AO) is the leading online retailer of domestic appliances in the UK and additionally has a significant non-UK operation in Germany and the Netherlands. Our initiation today examines its scaling-upstrategies and its potential to re-rate. We conclude that scaling potential is already being demonstrated outside the UK where we believe the ultimate value lies while the UK needs to show how it can grow its core MDA sales to counter recent signs of maturity. We initiate with a buy recommendation and a 172p target price.

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20 Sep 18
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BMV ASO MNC SML HUM OSI TLY NTG SKIN ALM

Small Cap Breakfast

Green Man Gaming—pure play e-commerce and technology company in the digital video games industry. revenue CAGR growth of 26.7% in the last three years to £47.5m. Due 28 Sep. EBITDA Profitable. Offer TBA Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months. Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa

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19 Sep 18
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PHP SEQI JLIF

Fidante Daily Digest

Primary Health Properties – Acquisition | Sequoia Economic Infrastructure Income – Capital raising | John Laing Infrastructure – Cash offer | Greencoat renewables– Interim results to 30 June 2018

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19 Sep 18
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AEWL RSE GRN

Fidante Daily Digest

AEWL– AEW UK Long Lease – Annual report to 30 June 2018 | RSE - Riverstone Energy – Hammerhead Equity commitment | GRN – Green REIT – Preliminary results

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18 Sep 18
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Entertainment One

Entertainment One - Unlocking the value of creativity

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17 Sep 18
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AAZ CORA GGP PDL SRB TSTR

SP Angel – Morning View

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Latest update highlights significant exploration upside potential Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Tekeledougou exploration update; Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Next phase of drilling at Havieron; Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Annual results; Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Extension of Sprott loan; Tri-Star Resources* (TSTR LN) – Interim Results and project update

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17 Sep 18
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AAZ CORA GGP PDL SRB TSTR

SP Angel – Morning View

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Latest update highlights significant exploration upside potential | Cora Gold* (CORA LN) – Tekeledougou exploration update | Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Next phase of drilling at Havieron | Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Annual results | Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Extension of Sprott loan | Tri-Star Resources* (TSTR LN) – Interim Results and project update

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