UK250

UK 250 equity research

Explore the most viewed and latest equity research and media content for the next 250 largest listed companies in the UK.

UK 250 Equity Research

Broker research, valuations, & analysis on the UK 250

11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

15 May 19

LIBERUM: Crest Nicholson* - Resilient trading

Crest Nicholson has announced that trading has been resilient in the six months to April 2019, with a reservation rate of 0.78 units per site per week, which is the same as achieved a year ago. The statement also shows that management has delivered on the strategy of turning land assets more quickly, which is demonstrated by a £41m reduction in net debt compared to last year as well as an acceleration in revenues from land sales, JV and commercial activity.

Companies: Crest Nicholson

14 May 19

Understanding the deepest discounts

At Hardman and Co, we try to answer the questions of why to invest in a company and what the risks are in doing so. For many investors, simply having a deep discount to NAV is a good enough answer to the first question. However, investors need to appreciate the risks and, in particular, the reasons why the shares are at a discount. Having understood those risks, investors need to be convinced that there is a catalyst for change on the part of the manager and how long (if at all) it will take for market sentiment to reflect this in a lower discount. In this report, we examine the companies with the largest discounts and review those very issues.

Companies: ADAM BC12 BGHL CGI HAN JZCP LMS MPO MVI MHN NSI NAS OCI PSHD RSE SIHL TFG TPOU UTL VIN ELTA ELX

09 Apr 19

UK Housebuilding Sector in 1Q 2019

Y2K is a numeronym and was the common abbreviation for the year 2000 software problem; and, for the benefit of millennial readers, the abbreviation combines the letter ‘Y’ for year and ‘K’ for the SI unit prefix kilo, meaning 1000. Hence, 2K signifies 2000.

Companies: WJG CSP CRST BDEV RDW PSN SPR TW/ BVS TEF GLV CRN INL BKG BWY

13 May 19

LIBERUM: Brewin Dolphin Holdings* - “Turn more to growth over time”

Significant, strategic, accretive acquisition in Ireland. Discretionary net flows are still running at 4.3%, even in these tough times. 2020 estimates come up > 10%, predominantly because markets have recovered.

Companies: Brewin Dolphin

16 May 19

LIBERUM: Genus* - PRRSv-resistance for China

Genus has announced a collaboration with Beijing Capital Agribusiness (BCA) to commercialise PRRSv-resistant pigs in China. BCA will bear full development and regulatory costs and will pay Genus $20m upon milestones.

Companies: Genus

17 May 19

SP Angel – Oil & Gas View

Companies: BLOE CNE FOG LEK OPHR SDX UKOG

03 May 19

The Monthly May 2019

How small- and mid-cap quoted companies make a substantial contribution to markets, employment and tax revenues.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB ARBB CMH CLIG DPP FLTA GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR OXB PCA PHP RE/ STX SIXH TRX TON VTA W7L

16 May 19

FLASH: 1Q19 update

Excluding 3.4 mboe/d production from Pakistan, YTD production was 81.7 mboe/d (GMP FEe: 79.8 mboe/d excluding Pakistan). Catcher production has been particularly strong at 34.4 mboe/d and 99% uptime (GMP FEe: 31 mboe/d). Huntington also outperformed our expectations (6.5 mboe/d vs 5.5 mboe/d) given high uptime while Indonesia was a bit below our forecasts (11.8 mboe/d vs 12.5 mboe/d). Reinstating the Balmoral b-2 well will take production from the area to slightly over 2 mbbl/d (net) above our forecasts for FY19 of 1.6 mbbl/d. Net debt at the end of April was US$2.25 bn. FY19 production guidance has been increased from 75 mboe/d to 75-80 mboe/d with capex guidance unchanged at US$340 mm.

Companies: Premier Oil

08 Apr 19

LIBERUM: Kier Group* - Risks discounted on a P/E of 4x

Kier’s H1 19 results were below expectations as Resi suffered from a slowdown in sales and central costs spiked. A £220m working capital outflow was a cause for concern, but we expect to see a large part of this unwind in H2.

Companies: Kier Group

27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

03 Apr 19

The Monthly April 2019

Although the focus of Hardman & Co is predominantly on companies in the smallto mid-sized market capitalisation range, when writing research reports, it is important to position them relative to the industry in which they operate. Apart from Japanese companies, all the major global pharmaceutical companies have reported full-year results for 2018 over the past few weeks; therefore, we have taken the opportunity to update our industry database and generate the first cut of global rankings for 2018. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle – it still takes, on average, 10 years from discovery to launch of a new drug – decisions made many years ago have important consequences on current financial results. Therefore, looking back at operational performance over 20 years reveals how different company strategies have panned out.

Companies: OPM AVO AJB AGY ARBB CMH CLIG CSH DNL GTLY HAYD KOOV LWRF MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX STX SCE SIXH TON VAL VTA W7L

12 Apr 19

LIBERUM: Plus500* - From too much volatility to too little

A low volatility quarter combined with clients making money (pre spreads) to mean very weak Q1 revenues at a third of the level of Q4, however new customer numbers are good, and spread revenue ARPU only down 14% on Q4. The $28m of client P&L takes 6% off our revenue estimate, and then it was a very weak quarter anyway.

Companies: Plus500

16 May 19

£2 stake limit hurts retail, in line with expectations

William hill announced its trading update for the 17-week period ending 30 April. Revenue growth came in at 2%, driven by online and the US, and was partly offset by a weak retail segment. Management continues to expect full-year numbers to be in line with expectations while the impact of the £2 stake limit was also as expected. We do not expect any significant change to our estimates or recommendation.

Companies: William Hill

16 May 19

H1 19 Interims; 6% PBT fall due to sales timing

Grainger’s interims reported net rental income of £29.1m (up 33% YoY, +3.6% excluding the GRIP consolidation) and underlying PBT of £38.3m (- 6% YoY due to the timing of residential sales, as previously indicated). EPRA NNNAV was reported at 271p (up marginally from a restated 270p at Sept 18, which our calculations assumed would be 277p). The company has also declared an interim dividend of 1.73p (up 10% YoY) but below our original forecast of 1.96p due to the impact of right issue restatement. Net debt currently stands at £1,080m (LTV of 37.2%). The group has delivered substantial progress on its PRS pipeline (now £1.3bn plus a further £760m secured, significantly ahead of its 2020 target of £850m). At current levels (10% NAV discount, 2.2% yield), we see scope for the shares to re-rate into NAV premium territory fuelled by Grainger’s growing investment pipeline and strong PRS fundamentals and maintain our Buy and 290p PT.

Companies: Grainger

19 May 17

Leading UK fund manager, Gervais Williams, discusses investing, his outlook and two companies he's excited about

18 Mar 19

Bitesize briefing – Euromoney

22 Aug 18

Grafton Group - Interim Results 2018

08 Mar 19

LS Holdings CEO, Fredrik Widlund*

Premium

28 Nov 18

LondonMetric Property PLC - Half Year Results 2018/19 interview

07 Mar 19

Premier Oil - Full Year Results 2018

23 May 17

Assura plc - Full Year Results

06 Mar 19

Vivo Energy plc - Full year 2018 results interview

20 Jun 18

Bank of Georgia and Georgia Capital - Welcome Ceremony

11 Feb 19

Acacia Mining - Preliminary results 2018

23 May 18

Assura - Full Year Results 2018

31 Jan 19

PHP - Full Year Results 2018

09 May 19

Executive interview - Genesis Emerging Markets Fund

25 Jan 19

Capital Goods Value trap – 2019 Outlook

Premium

02 Jan 19

Highlights 2018: Primary Health Properties - Irish portfolio film

Latest Content

MVN FOG CNE SDX

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Madalena Energy (MVN CN) (not covered): 1Q19 update in Argentina | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN) (not covered): Equity raise for Australia | SDX Energy (SDX LN/CN)1,6: 1Q19 Results

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17 May 19
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BLOE CNE FOG LEK OPHR SDX UKOG

SP Angel – Oil & Gas View

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17 May 19
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Genus

LIBERUM: Genus* - PRRSv-resistance for China

View

16 May 19
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STO PMO SEN TETY BLOE GENL

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Santos (STO AU) (not covered): PNG farm-in | Premier Oil (PMO LN); BUY, £1.45: 1Q19 update | Reserves cut at Maria in Norway | Serinus Energy (SENX LN)1; Speculative Buy, £0.20: 1Q19 results | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)1,6; BUY, SEK85: Production update in Oman | Block Energy (BLOE LN) (not covered): Equity raise in Georgia | Genel Energy (GENL LN); HOLD, £3.00: Update in Kurdistan

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16 May 19
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Premier Oil

FLASH: 1Q19 update

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16 May 19
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William Hill

£2 stake limit hurts retail, in line with expectations

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16 May 19
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Grainger

H1 19 Interims; 6% PBT fall due to sales timing

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16 May 19
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III GRI ELTA

Fidante Daily Digest

3i Group – Finals to 31 March 2019 | Grainger – Interims to 31 March 2019 | Electra Private Equity – Interims to 31 March 2019

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16 May 19
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Crest Nicholson

LIBERUM: Crest Nicholson* - Resilient trading

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15 May 19
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CAB ENOG ENI WRL

GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package

Cabot Energy (CAB LN); Under Review: 1Q19 results | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN) (not covered): 1Q19 update | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): Discovery in Angola | Wentworth Resources (WEN LN) (not covered): Operational update in Tanzania |

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